Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said in an interview to Bloomberg that recent developments suggest the risk of widening and worsening shipping disruptions has become an important concern. The situation worsened over the weekend after the US said it had struck three Iranian oil tankers, following attacks by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on two US warships with ballistic missiles.

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf subsequently said the era of “proportionate responses” was over and warned that Iran’s future retaliation would be “faster, heavier and more painful.” Also read: Trump forecasts oil below $2 a gallon after US ‘victory’ over Iran Iran also said it would announce a new “exclusion zone” in the coming days.

The zone would start from the line of the US naval blockade, extend towards the Strait of Hormuz and continue into the Persian Gulf. Mohsen Rezaei, the new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said any ship entering the area with the intention of passing through the Strait of Hormuz and identified by Iran would be placed on its sanctions list.

Goldman Sachs sees “meaningful upside to crude oil prices”, Struyven said, while also suggesting that investors should bet on higher natural gas and refined product prices. In gas and fuels, he said, the supply shocks are bigger than those in the crude market.

Oil price todayOil prices extended their gains on Tuesday as the risk of a prolonged Middle East conflict increased after Iran threatened retaliation against any further US attacks on its assets, raising concerns about possible disruptions to crude supplies.

Brent crude futures rose $1.21 or 1.25% to $98.30 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.10 or 2.30% to $93.63 a barrel. Brent had climbed to its highest level since July 24 in the previous session as traders continued to price at a risk premium amid rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments.

Iran said on Monday that energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including US oil and gas interests, could be vulnerable. The warning came after tit-for-tat strikes over the weekend, with no indication of a diplomatic breakthrough. Read more: India adds new crude suppliers, but Russia-led 5 countries retain grip on oil imports What are other experts saying?

The length of the disruption will be crucial for oil prices. JPMorgan estimates that every additional month of disruption could add around $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent prices. If the disruption continues for three months, the bank expects average monthly Brent prices to reach around $114 a barrel.

ANZ analysts have also lifted their short-term Brent forecast to $95 a barrel and warned that prices could move higher if the Middle East conflict intensifies. They said a prolonged standoff involving calibrated military action by the US and Iran appeared to be the most likely scenario and could delay the return of full Middle East supply.

The front-month Brent contract is trading at a premium of around $20 over the October 2027 contract, or roughly a fifth of its price. This reflects the market paying a steep premium for barrels available today compared with barrels for next year. The bias in Brent remains positive, according to Anindya Bannerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities.

Banerjee said $90 is now a strong floor for Brent, while $102 is the major resistance level. A break above $102 could trigger significant upside momentum, with prices potentially moving towards $115-$116. Until then, Brent is expected to trade with a positive bias below that cap.

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Ukrainian officials reported a Russian missile attack on Kyiv on Tuesday, which they stated involved both ballistic and cruise missiles and resulted in damage to residential buildings and other infrastructure. The strikes occurred following visits by U.

S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to both Moscow and Kyiv, where Witkoff claimed a temporary ceasefire had been agreed upon prior to the attacks.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that its forces have redirected 94 commercial vessels and boarded two ships in the Arabian Sea while enforcing a blockade against Iran. In response, Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated on social media that Tehran has "recalibrated" its military posture and is considering establishing a maritime exclusion zone in the Persian Gulf to counter economic sanctions.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call on Monday, with Downing Street stating they agreed to continue working toward a Ukrainian ceasefire. This diplomatic exchange occurred one day after U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with both President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, expressing hope for renewed trilateral negotiations.