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diplomacyMay 20, 2026

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Summary

Good morning! There has been no progress overnight when it comes to negotiations between Iran and the US, but it appears that other countries are losing patience with the situation. As a reminder, the (currently closed) Strait of Hormuz used to see one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passing through it. India has a major interest in the situation, and has created plans to send ships through the Strait imminently, with the help of the Indian Navy. But it’s not clear yet if the US and Iranian forces blockading the Strait will let these plans succeed. I expect that fees may be payable to one or both sides. In a similar vein, Bloomberg reports that some South Korean and Chinese tankers are now attempting to cross the Strait. A South Korean oil tanker called “The Universal Winner” is currently in the Strait, attempting to bring Kuwaiti oil home, just behind two Chinese vessels that may have already succeeded in crossing the Strait. While this is just a trickle of activity compared to before the war, it shows that other countries have run out of patience and are now willing to take calculated risks, to see what level of activity...

Perspectives

Iranian Official

Iran firmly upholds its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, closed in response to unrelenting US aggression and failed negotiations that expose Washington's refusal to respect Tehran's legitimate rights. Foreign vessels from India, South Korea, and China, backed by naval escorts, represent provocative attempts to undermine Iran's defensive measures and exploit the waterway amid the crisis. The Islamic Republic remains resolute in resisting such encroachments, ensuring that any passage serves only national interests and deters further imperialist interference.

Israeli

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz forms a core element of its strategy to choke global energy routes while advancing nuclear and proxy threats that directly target Israel's survival. Attempts by Indian, Chinese, and South Korean tankers to force passage amid stalled US talks reveal Tehran's willingness to escalate maritime aggression through its network of regional proxies and direct confrontation. From Israel's perspective, robust defensive measures remain essential to deter this existential encirclement and safeguard strategic sea lanes.

Neutral

Negotiations between Iran and the United States have reported no progress overnight. According to Bloomberg, South Korean and Chinese tankers are attempting to transit the closed Strait of Hormuz, including the South Korean vessel “The Universal Winner,” which is carrying Kuwaiti oil and positioned behind two Chinese vessels that may have already crossed. India has stated plans to dispatch ships through the Strait with naval assistance, though it remains unclear whether these transits will be permitted.

Western

Despite stalled US-Iran talks, international shipping is testing Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to restore critical energy transit routes. Indian naval-escorted vessels and Chinese/South Korean tankers, including the Universal Winner, are probing enforcement levels in a bid to neutralize the threat to global oil flows. These limited transits reflect allied priorities of maintaining freedom of navigation through precision risk assessment.

Pro-Peace

The stalled US-Iran negotiations and resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered risky tanker voyages by Indian, Chinese, and South Korean vessels, including the Universal Winner, endangering civilian crews and threatening global oil flows that sustain millions of livelihoods. Such militarized posturing inflicts mounting humanitarian costs through energy shortages and economic strain on ordinary populations, particularly in developing nations. Renewed diplomacy remains the only path to avert escalation and protect civilian lives.

Global South

Global South nations are asserting maritime sovereignty by dispatching tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as India readies naval-escorted voyages and Chinese and South Korean vessels—including the Universal Winner carrying Kuwaiti crude—test the US-Iran impasse. This trickle of independent traffic exposes the neo-colonial grip major powers still wield over critical trade routes, forcing developing economies to shoulder risks and potential tolls amid stalled diplomacy. The episode underscores the failure of Western-dominated institutions to prevent such disruptions to energy flows vital for the Global South.

Actors involved

USIran

Sources

  • Graham NearyBy Graham Neary

    Good morning! There has been no progress overnight when it comes to negotiations between Iran and the US, but it appears that other countries are losing patience with the situation. As a reminder, the (currently closed) Strait of Hormuz used to see one-fifth of the world’s oil su

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