strikeApr 12, 2026

Does diplomacy through the use of military force always succeed?

Summary

In a surprising development, US President Donald Trump announced in the early hours of Wednesday morning a two-week ceasefire with Iran, contingent upon the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to navigation. Trump’s announcement came shortly before the expiration of the deadline he had set for striking Iranian infrastructure and power plants, threatening to “obliterate Iranian civilization” unless Iran agreed to a deal. Despite this, Washington had previously set April 9th as the deadline for ending the war, a date Israel deemed insufficient at the time, requiring additional weeks. So, has the US strategy of diplomacy under military pressure succeeded in achieving its objectives? Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform: “Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the full, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz “will be possible within two weeks in coordination with the Iranian armed forces, and taking into account technical constraints,” adding that Iran “will cease all its defensive operations if the attacks against it cease.” The Iranian Supreme National Security Council announced its acceptance of the ceasefire and that it would begin negotiations with the United States in Islamabad starting Saturday 11. It appears that Washington must balance the interests of the United States in general, and the future of this administration in particular, with helping Israel achieve its objectives in the region, especially after 41 days of attrition warfare and losses, which have negatively impacted the American economy, Trump’s popularity, and US alliances in the Middle East. In a previous article titled “America and Israel’s War on Iran: A Calculation of Profit and Loss,” I addressed the question of the extent to which the United States and Israel achieved their objectives in launching the war against Iran, a point that aligns with the conclusions reached in the Israeli press yesterday. The newspaper Maariv asserted that Israel and the United States lost this war, with Iran emerging victorious. The paper pointed to the Iranians’ success in imposing an agreement on the United States, an agreement they largely drafted before it was promoted by the Pakistanis and Turks, after the Iranians rejected the agreement proposed by the United States. The Israeli newspaper also emphasized that Iran fired the final shot in this battle and remained steadfast after 41 days of the joint American-Israeli aggression. The newspaper argued that this outcome is further evidenced by an examination of the war’s objectives and principles of engagement in light of the results, which demonstrate that “the Iranian regime emerged with the upper hand.” In a related development, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported on Wednesday that the Israeli leadership is concerned about a potential agreement between the United States and Iran, fearing it will not take Israeli interests into account. Four issues are causing concern for Israel: the fate of Iran’s nuclear program and enriched uranium; Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and program; the sanctions imposed on Iran, which Israel has strongly advocated for maintaining; and the war with Hezbollah after Pakistan announced that the ceasefire included Lebanon. It appears that Washington must balance the interests of the United States in general, and the future of this administration in particular, with helping Israel achieve its objectives in the region, especially after 41 days of attrition warfare and losses, which have negatively impacted the American economy, Trump’s popularity, and US alliances in the Middle East. On another front, domestic American discontent with the behavior, stances, and policies of US President Donald Trump has reached its peak. According to The Hill, President Trump’s explicit threat to “end civilization” has sparked outrage among Americans, not to mention his other related statements that have angered many lawmakers, politicians, media figures, and the general public. The number of calls from lawmakers for his impeachment has reached historic levels, not to mention the significant rise in public criticism. By Tuesday afternoon, more than 50 Democratic representatives and prominent members of the Senate had called for his removal and the invocation of Article 25 of the Constitution. This article pertains to the removal of the president due to his inability to perform his duties and the appointment of the vice president as acting president. It is one of the most important constitutional mechanisms that can practically lead to the removal of the president or the transfer of his powers. However, it remains far from being practically activated at present because this mechanism requires the approval of two-thirds of the members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, which is difficult to achieve so far. The US and Iran have agreed to begin negotiations Saturday April 11 in Pakistan for a period of two weeks. Pakistan has developed a framework for ending hostilities and shared it with both Iran and the US. This framework includes a two-phase approach: an immediate ceasefire followed by a comprehensive agreement. The US had previously proposed a 15-point plan, which Iran rejected as excessive. The plan included a 30-day ceasefire, the dismantling of Iran’s three main nuclear facilities, a halt to all uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, a suspension of its ballistic missile program, a reduction in support for its allies in the region, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In return, Washington would lift sanctions on Iran and provide assistance in developing its civilian nuclear program. This US plan mirrors a previous proposal presented by the administration and discussed with Iran before the war began on February 28. Iran refuses to negotiate any restrictions on its ballistic missile program, which has been a red line for Tehran in its talks with Washington. Ballistic missiles are considered part of the conventional military arsenal, which all countries have the right to possess and develop within their official military systems. Tehran has consistently maintained that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes and that it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons. In fact, a fatwa (religious ruling) issued by the former Supreme Leader explicitly forbids the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Iran has already joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which Israel refuses to join. In accordance with its contractual obligations, Tehran has conceded to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Islamic Republic also had previously signed an agreement with Washington in 2015 to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the easing of US sanctions. President Trump withdrew from this agreement during his first term in office in 2018 and recently started a war with Iran, politically, economically, and militarily. Iran refuses to negotiate any restrictions on its ballistic missile program, which has been a red line for Tehran in its talks with Washington. Ballistic missiles are considered part of the conventional military arsenal, which all countries have the right to possess and develop within their official military systems. In response, Iran presented a ten-point plan, which the United States rejected but accepted as a basis for negotiations. The ten-point Iranian plan stipulates a complete cessation of hostilities on all active fronts, the withdrawal of US forces from all their positions in the region, the lifting of sanctions on Iran, the release of its frozen assets, reconstruction efforts, and the establishment of a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in which Iran and Oman are considered key players. There is talk of Iran and Oman imposing fees on ships transiting the Strait, with Iran stating that the revenue generated could aid its reconstruction efforts. It was agreed that ending the war would require international guarantees and a UN Security Council resolution. Iran wields considerable political power within the Security Council, comparable to that of the United States, which possesses a veto power, through its allies, China and Russia. The two countries had previously blocked a Security Council resolution that would have enforced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by force. It may be difficult for Washington to return to fighting, given a number of reasons that are particularly important to Trump. The first of these reasons relates to increasing domestic opposition to the war, and to the immediate improvement in the American and global market situation following the ceasefire, after American newspapers acknowledged significant losses, translating into billions of dollars in lost jobs for American citizens and economic inflation. Major American newspapers considered that halting the war spares Washington from escalation and saves the country from further economic losses. This comes despite many of these sources emphasizing that Trump did not achieve a clear diplomatic breakthrough or success in stopping the war, describing it as a temporary and unstable truce. The second reason stems from the welcome given to the ceasefire by Washington’s Western allies, who consider it a moment of relief for the region and the world, and acknowledge the need to reach a comprehensive agreement that prevents the war from erupting again. The Gulf states’ position on the ceasefire was generally positive, considering it an opportunity to avoid escalation and to protect the region’s political and economic stability. The third reason is the position of the Gulf states on stopping the war. They are close allies of Washington and may pay the price for that war because of a unilateral American decision in favor of Israel and to fulfill its declared goals, despite those countries’ firm stance before the war of wanting to avoid it. It may now be difficult for the countries of the region to ignore or avoid reconsidering their security ties with Washington. This recent war has demonstrated that understanding and cooperation among the countries of the region have become a top priority, as they all strive for economic prosperity, which can only be achieved through political stability. Many of the world’s major powers seek peace and economic cooperation, far removed from the atmosphere of war and the exploitation of other nations’ resources, as recent history attests. These developments could be of particular importance to the Palestinian cause and its future, both in Gaza and the West Bank, if the Palestinians can effectively leverage them with their neighbors and allies in the region. Now following the stumbling negotiations between the U S and Iran in Islamabad which started on Saturday 11, the resumption of war looms again in the horizon. It will take courage and compromise from both sides to avoid this gloomy scenario. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

US strikes Iran for 10th consecutive night as Tehran strikes tanker in the Strait of Hormuz

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

JON GAMBRELL, Associated Press

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranRussiaChina

How the US-Iran conflict has thrown India’s Chabahar plans into doubt

○ 1 source

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran

Divya A

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire

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U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

m. ET on Monday. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

Sam Meredith

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedIsraelIranProxy

How Houthi Red Sea blockade tightens Iran's grip on energy supplies

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Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.

Reuters