Summary

What is really happening behind the scenes in Tehran? How close is the collapse of the ayatollah regime, what is going through Mojtaba Khamenei’s mind, and why is Israel’s defense establishment on maximum alert? Throughout January and February, intelligence agencies closely monitored the Iranian regime’s harsh campaign of retaliation against protesters across the country. Reports collected by officials in Washington and Jerusalem documented arrests, severe torture, and a widespread pattern of citizens disappearing without a trace. Initially, Israeli and the United States had no plan to launch another operation after Operation Rising Lion. However, as reports emerged of mass killings carried out indiscriminately against men, women, children, and the elderly, Israel’s defense establishment delivered a firm message in closed forums: “The moment for another operation will come; it is inevitable.” The motivation was not only the growing threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program and former supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s decision to produce thousands of ballistic missiles. Israeli officials also cited a moral obligation not to stand aside in the face of mass killings. At the same time, they identified a strategic opportunity to advance a process that could ultimately lead to the collapse of the regime. The White House meeting and the three pillars Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted the recommendation of the US administration and traveled to the White House for a critical meeting with US President Donald Trump, accompanied by senior security officials. The goal was to strengthen cooperation and approve a joint strategic plan. During the closed-door meeting, no explicit commitment was made to overthrow the Iranian regime. One official clarified: “We are going to create the conditions for regime change.” To advance that goal, the Israeli delegation presented three main pillars: alternative leadership, targeted influence campaigns, and ground operations. The approach was based on the clear understanding that airstrikes alone cannot topple a regime. Six months after Operation Roaring Lion, Israeli security officials assess that the Iranian regime, despite the aggression it continues to display toward its neighbors, is moving along a path of internal deterioration. The process could take months or even years, but severe economic sanctions and international cooperation could accelerate it significantly. At present, the regime is struggling to contain unrest in the streets and markets, as well as rising unemployment. Oil exports have been almost completely frozen, and the economic situation continues to worsen. On the military front, Israeli officials assess that intelligence and operational gains have been preserved. According to security sources, Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment or transferred centrifuges, while most of its infrastructure remains buried deep underground. “They carried out dilutions and various actions, but they did not transfer anything. Their defense industry has been destroyed,” a senior security official said. The official added that the Pickaxe Mountain facility remains unchanged due to the lack of aerial munitions capable of destroying it. The clock game: Fear in Tehran, pressure in Washington The current situation is being managed under a “clock game,” with the American clock measured by fuel prices and Trump’s patience, and the Iranian clock growing more urgent by the day. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has already publicly recommended reaching a diplomatic agreement “while we are still standing on our feet,” amid growing tensions within the upper levels of the government. For now, Iran is refusing to consider concessions and believes it can withstand the economic pressure. However, US statements regarding broad sanctions have placed Tehran under unprecedented pressure. Washington is directing much of that pressure toward the United Arab Emirates and China, which serve as Iran’s main economic lifelines through their purchases of oil on the black market. The goal is to persuade them to stop helping Tehran circumvent sanctions. Within Israel’s defense establishment, there is growing concern over the possibility of an unexpected Iranian move. The assessment is that Tehran may attempt to escape its economic pressure by attacking Israel in an effort to force limited negotiations and reach new understandings. The Israeli message conveyed to Tehran has been clear: if Iran attacks, there will be no way back. Israel’s response, officials have indicated, would target critical national infrastructure that a collapsing regime would not be able to rebuild. At the same time, Iranian officials remain concerned about the possibility of another surprise attack, and the heightened tensions continue to trouble senior figures in Tehran.