ConflictClarifier

ردیاب بحران ایران-خلیج فارس ۲۰۲۶
CC
Events Archive
diplomacyAug 17, 2026

Is Iran preparing for a long war with US? Mojtaba Khamenei's military shake-up sends strong signals

Summary

EXPLAINER Is Iran preparing for a prolonged war with the United States after more than five months of conflict? Why has Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei appointed veteran Revolutionary Guards commanders and hardline security officials? Explained here. Is Iran getting ready for a long-drawn war with the US after fighting for more than five months? Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has dropped a hint and made his plans apparently clear by appointing hard-line, veteran military commanders to top security positions. Analysts believe that the Shiite regime is bracing for an open-ended war with the US and muzzling the dissent at home. The Iranian leadership wants to end the war without giving up the leverage it has gained-mainly the control over the Strait of Hormuz. Mojtaba Khamenei has made significant changes in the military leadership at a time when the fierce war has ebbed; the main skirmishes have come to a negligible level, the 60-day ceasefire has ended, and the 14-point MoU has become invalid. Mohsen Rezaei, who led the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps during the Iran-Iraq War, has been made head of the Supreme National Security Council. Khamenei has made former intelligence chief Hossein Taeb head of the Basij. The powerful network of paramilitary forces, often employed to crush anti-government protests, will now be headed by a hardcore cleric. (Mohsen Rezaei, Head, Supreme National Security Council, Iran) Besides, the Supreme Leader has also appointed a new general staff of the armed forces, a new head of the Revolutionary Guards and a commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ naval forces. It is believed that Mojtaba Khamenei has put his stamp on Iran's national security. He has also made it clear that despite reports of being bedridden, he controls the regime and rules the roost. Most of the new leaders belong to the generation of people who overthrew Shah Pahlavi in the Islamic Revolution of 1979 or fought the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. Clear examples are Rezaei, who was his commander, and Taeb, who was in his battalion during the war against Iraq. Khamenei also made his intentions clear by choosing aggressive language and a belligerent approach. While announcing the new appointments, he asked them to be ready for "powerful offensive operations against the enemy." Analysts believe that the Supreme Leader is confident of braving the economic sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union. The long experience of handling these sanctions has made Tehran more obdurate. Now, they don't care if Washington imposes fresh sanctions. (Hossein Taeb, Head, Basij.) Most of the new leaders are hardcore. Rezai is an example. He wanted to extend the war with Iraq rather than agreeing to a cease-fire, as he believed that Tehran could have gained more leverage and a better settlement. Mojtaba Khamenei has also forced the doves, like President Mahmoud Pezeshkian, who now toe his hardline views on the control of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts also believe that the Supreme Leader has selected those people who are ready to sign a deal with the US if the conditions suit them and give them better leverage, but they are also ready to prolong the war if Donald Trump imposes harsh conditions, as he has tried several times in the recent past.

Actors involved

USIranUNEU

Sources

  • Pramode MallikBy Pramode Mallik

    EXPLAINER Is Iran preparing for a prolonged war with the United States after more than five months of conflict? Why has Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei appointed veteran Revolutionary Guards commanders and hardline security officials? Explained here. Is Iran getting ready for a long-d

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

diplomacyUnverifiedUSIran
1 source

Key points: Bitcoin diverges from US stocks as Trump says Strait of Hormuz “open” Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD building on the week’s gains as the S&P 500 bounced from 7,696, its lowest level since Aug. 4. BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView This came after US president Donald Trump posted a map of the closed Strait of Hormuz oil route to Truth Social where it was labeled “new US territory.

” Both the US and Iran lay claim to control of Hormuz, with Trump threatening US ally Oman with military action over its plans to work with Iran on charging tolls to shipping traffic. In a subsequent post, Trump confirmed that further diplomacy with Iran was not on the agenda.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he wrote. S&P 500 one-day chart.

Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView As on Monday, oil avoided major volatility, with WTI crude down 1% at the time of writing at $84 per barrel. US government bonds continued to show strain, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.34%, its highest since January 2007.

“Bond prices are sending warnings,” BNY Mellon analyst Geoff Yu wrote in a research note quoted by the New York Times. Yu said that the surge came as “investors demand more compensation for inflation risk,” while also attributing the upside to government borrowing.

US 30-year bond yields one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView BTC price faces crunch rebound test Updating X followers on BTC/USD, trader and analyst Aksel Kibar eyed the culmination of a potential reverse head-and-shoulders pattern at $62,300.

Related: Bitcoin price spike to $64.5K was ‘low-volume liquidity trap’: Analysis “If $BTCUSD is going to rebound, it has to come from here,” he argued on Monday. Kibar offered a $53,000 target in the event of the head-and-shoulders structure failing, with $76,000 a potential upside target should the rebound sustain.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar on X.com Previously, Cointelegraph reported that underwater investors were contributing to Bitcoin’s inability to break higher. Its rebound to $64,500 also stopped short of an overhead trend line, the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA).

This moving average is now in place as resistance at $65,827.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
diplomacyUnverifiedUSIran
1 source

Trump says no talks underway with Iran, Hormuz blockade remains in place US president says no discussions are taking place or planned with Tehran and reiterates that the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains fully operational Washington: US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks are taking place with Iran and that no discussions are currently scheduled between the two countries.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump also said the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains "in full force and effect." The president did not provide further details regarding US policy towards Iran or any potential future diplomatic engagement.

Trump's comments come amid continued tensions between Washington and Tehran and renewed focus on security and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes.

Location: Tehran
diplomacyUnverifiedUSIran
1 source

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that Iran had “won both the war and diplomacy,” claiming those who initially sought Tehran’s “unconditional surrender” later sought negotiations. Speaking at an event, Araghchi said Iran resisted for days against what he described as “the world’s largest apparent military,” alongside another army claiming military power and with the support of nearly all Western countries and some other states inside and outside the region, according to the Tasnim news agency.

“Those who were seeking unconditional surrender, shortly after the war began, begged for negotiations,” Araghchi said. He claimed Tehran initially rejected a ceasefire and continued fighting until reaching a point where the other side accepted a ceasefire and negotiations “on Iran’s terms.

” “We fought with strength, and we negotiated with strength,” he said, adding that many foreign ministers had told him: “You won both the war and diplomacy.” Araghchi’s remarks came after US President Donald Trump called on Iran on Monday to give up and “raise the white flag.

Location: Tehran
diplomacyUnverifiedUSIran
1 source

- Iran demands US lift sanctions and return frozen assets to reopen Strait of Hormuz - Iran's Parliament Speaker warns closure of Strait continues until US ends military threats - Around 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait, impacting energy security Iran has warned that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US meets a set of conditions, including the release of frozen Iranian assets, an end to oil sanctions and what Tehran describes as a US blockade and military threats.

Al-Arabiya English reported that Iran's Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Trump administration must meet the conditions before Tehran considers reopening the strategic waterway. “Until the Trump regime removes the blockade, ends the wars across the region, returns Iran's stolen assets, lifts the oil sanctions, and ceases its military threats, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed,” Ghalibaf said.

Until the Trump regime removes the blockade, ends the wars across the region, returns Iran's stolen assets, lifts the oil sanctions, and ceases its military threats, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. pic.twitter.com/fl2RrKnT1R— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) August 18, 2026 Ghalibaf also warned that Iran was prepared to respond more forcefully depending on the actions of its adversaries.

ALSO READ: 'We Control Hormuz': Trump To Declare Strait As US Territory? Here's What President Says The comments add a new condition to an already fragile diplomatic environment, with the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of concerns over global energy supplies.

Around one-fifth of global oil supply typically passes through the waterway, making any prolonged disruption a major risk for crude markets, shipping and energy security. Earlier, Press TV reported that Ghalibaf is scheduled to travel to Baghdad on Wednesday at the head of a high-level Iranian delegation for discussions with Iraqi leaders.

The talks are expected to cover regional developments and bilateral cooperation, including border security, counterterrorism, economic ties and implementation of existing agreements. Iraqi media have also reported that the agenda could include a proposal concerning Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

The visit comes as regional governments grapple with the implications of continued disruption in one of the world's most important energy corridors. ALSO READ: Hormuz Tensions: Another Ship Hit By Unknown Projectile, Says UKMTO Centre The security situation in the waterway has also remained tense.

The UK's Maritime Trade Operations agency, or UKMTO, said a vessel reported being struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz. “The Company Security Officer has reported that the vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz,” UKMTO said.

The impact damaged the vessel's engine room and resulted in a crew casualty, the agency said. The remaining crew was being assisted by the Omani coastguard. Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.

Location: Tehran