Summary
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING … Donald Trump went and suspended “Project Freedom” as the naval operation threatened to send the fragile ceasefire with Iran into meltdown. The president wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy’s attempt to shepherd commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz would be “paused for a short period of time” to see if a deal with Iran can be struck.
Talk about TACO: Trump’s latest gambit in the Gulf didn’t even last 48 hours. Find the details on POLITICO.
Top Marks: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also declared an end to the offensive stage of Operation Epic Fury (aka the U.S.-Israeli war with Tehran that triggered the strait closure) … but the blockades remain and hopes that this could genuinely end soon are slim. Meanwhile the Gulf is leading news bulletins and oil prices will be watched nervously. Can’t someone tell them we’ve got an election on?
Good Wednesday morning. This is Sam Blewett.
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DRIVING THE DAY
LOOKING TO THE LEFT: It’s the last proper day of the election campaign before voters stick two fingers up at the traditional twosome. Labour has by far the furthest to fall on Thursday — so Keir Starmer’s band of un-merry MPs are going hard in attacking the populist challengers on both flanks. Reform UK has had a bit of a bumpy ride of late, but it’s the Green Party that is coming under the most sustained pressure right now.
Green shoots: Zack Polanski will defend himself — and likely go on the offensive — in two sustained grillings today. First the Green leader has a huge test in the Today program’s 8.10 a.m. slot. Later he’ll bookend his day by talking to ITV’s Peston. A glance at the plummeting personal ratings in recent days indicates how blinding the spotlight’s glare can be.
Send for aid: There will of course be intense scrutiny on antisemitism within the Greens and on the party’s failure to swiftly root it out. But an investigation by the Times’ James Beal is prompting questions of a different flavor about Polanski’s judgment … and C.V. The paper found various times the “eco-populist” has claimed to have been a “spokesperson” for the British Red Cross … but the humanitarian charity has publicly disputed this and raised it with Polanski’s team.
It grows! Beal also reports that Polanski wasn’t a full member of the National Council of Hypnotherapy while working as a hypnotherapist, despite apparently making claims to prospective clients. There is also more evidence of alleged boob-enlarging hypnotherapy being practiced in Harley Street by someone Polanski knew, even if the Green leader says he was never paid to try it. There are plenty more strands in the story that hacks will no doubt be following up in the months to come.
Look into my eyes (not my past): The Greens clarified that Polanski hosted fundraisers for the Red Cross, among other activities (he posted pics), which isn’t exactly being a spokesperson. They also hit back at the Times for what they argue is an “incredibly offensive antisemitic” cartoon of Polanski published last week.
In war, charity … in politics, war: One of Labour’s two eve-of-poll hit jobs (we will get to the other in a minute) is the publication of a dossier of 25 Green candidates accused of peddling dangerous conspiracy theories and antisemitism. While we’re on that point, it seems that four of the eight candidates whose alleged antisemitic remarks were highlighted in the Labour attack vid still haven’t been suspended, as Playbook revealed yesterday … or, at least, the Greens haven’t been able to provide an update otherwise.
Gonna need a bigger boat: Meanwhile, the Mail splashes on the Greens investigating more than 30 of its prospective councillors for allegations of anti-Jewish racism. The Greens responded by saying they were proud of the “vast majority” of the party’s 4,500 candidates and insisting they’re already investing in better vetting to prevent wrong ‘uns “slipping through the net.”
On the other end of the media spectrum: The New World’s James Ball has also dug into Polanski’s prolific social media use to find more dodgy “likes,” including posts calling Starmer a “genocidal Zionist” and calling Labour a “bunch of rancid murderous bigots.” Green Co-Deputy Leader Rachel Millward will be on Politics Live today, where she’s bound to be asked about her own questionable X post following the Golders Green attack.
LOOKING TO THE RIGHT
ONTO LABOUR’S OTHER BIG OPPONENT: Nigel Farage will be raising a glass of claret watching the two parties of the left go at each other while he enjoys his Reform insurgency. But Labour hasn’t given up on that — it’s trying to fight on two fronts.
Deploy Pat: Starmer’s steady pair of hands, Pat McFadden, has been trusted with the final morning broadcast round of this elections campaign. The DWP secretary does hope to use it to land a few digs at Polanski — but also intends to go after the millions Farage has accepted from “crypto billionaires in Thailand.” And Labour’s other attack piece into the day is a plea from Deputy Leader Lucy Powell for voters to reject the “toxic politics” of Reform.
He’s not getting off scot-free: The BBC News at Ten had a prominent package last night on the (until recently) secret £5 million Farage trousered, before he was an MP, from Reform UK mega donor Christopher Harborne. Farage insisted that it was a donation for his personal safety, telling broadcasters at his final big rally of the campaign in Merthyr Tydfil that his party had looked at every legal angle and concluded there was no obligation to declare such a “personal gift.”
Gift of the grift: As More in Common’s Luke Tryl pointed out on Newsnight, the Reform diehards may not give two figs, but it may not play well with wavering voters who are needed to get Farage over the line in Westminster. Some who thought Farage was different are now suggesting he looks more like the “establishment,” Tryl said. Farage is campaigning in the northwest today and may do a pool clip, so watch out for more.
FWIW: YouGov’s weekly national poll has a Reform lead, the usual Labour/Tory/Green cluster and the Lib Dems in fifth. The usual heavy caveats apply.
The fight for the final stronghold: Labour seems to be throwing a lot at the capital in the final hours. Starmer was let loose on the campaign last night — albeit in a stage-managed event in a community hall gathering of true believers. “Of course, we know it’s challenging,” Starmer said of the state of play. Ed Miliband and Bridget Phillipson will be campaigning within the confines of the M25 today (though, in fairness, John Healey is being sent to the West Midlands and Lisa Nandy the northwest).
Kemi’s got the Knowledge: Kemi Badenoch is also spending the final hours of the campaign in London — but she’ll be circling the “donut” in Conservative-branded Hackney Carriage, starting out in Wandsworth, where the Tory leader will do a pooled interview around 9 a.m.
Meter’s on: Then her black cab will head to Croydon, Bromley, Enfield, Barnet and Harrow before finishing in Havering — the last on the list being a big Reform hope within the capital, as your Playbook author’s look at the election in the capital examined. (That piece also contains the nugget that Labour was in part investigating antisemitism in the Greens by comparing a list of 500 people kicked out from the party under Jeremy Corbyn to Polanski’s candidates list).
Don’t try this at Home Counties: Ed Davey will spend his last day campaigning in Surrey, where the Lib Dems hope to take control of two Home County councils in what should be peak Toryland. The Telegraph has JL Partners polling suggesting the liberals will outperform the Tories in almost half the contested southern seats. The party sees expanding its base here as crucial to winning more MPs at the next election. Davey will speak to broadcasters around 2 p.m.
Silver linings playbook? Labour also seems to be putting resources into the traditional Labour-Tory bellwethers of Wolverhampton and Stevenage. One MP who’s campaigned in the latter recently — and hopes voters there may be being turned off Reform in this ever perilous-looking world — reckoned it remained “all to play for.” You get the sense if there are any holds in areas like this then Labour might try spin the results as being not quite as bad as they could’ve been.
Newkie frown: Activists have long feared Green victory in Gorton and Denton would scupper chances of holding onto Newcastle, because it’d shatter the claim that Labour’s the only party to keep out Reform in the progressive leaning wards, while Reform will triumph elsewhere. One MP who’s been campaigning there reckons it’ll end up a hot mess of up to five parties of similar size and no one able to control, and predicting similar for Birmingham. A good test for the brave new world of multi-party politics!
LOOKING INWARDS
SEEING THROUGH THE CLOUDS: One senior official made the argument to Playbook last night that the past few days offer Labour hope … of sorts. “When in government all the scrutiny is on us — but the last week we’ve seen a situation where the other parties are getting that. A general election will be 100 times this.” So, that could present a sliver of hope for quelling the challenge from the left and right for the Labour leader in 2029, whoever that is …
Let’s face it: Downing Street is braced for all hell to break out as the results start rolling in on Friday. And there is a closely guarded plan on how to firefight whatever worst-case scenario does pan out.
Unleash the charmer: Our Dan Bloom also hears No. 10 is drawing up plans for a big speech from Starmer to discuss policy and the overall direction of his government in the days following the results. (It’d be different to the security-focused speech that was called off due to the Golders Green attack.) But whether any of that is big enough to impress depends on how ambitious Starmer wants to be — or is able to be.
A manifesto for changing: The Times’ Steven Swinford reckons there’s a conversation in No. 10 about tearing up all sorts of red lines in the Labour’s manifesto to remove some of the strictures preventing the government giving the big offer that voters actually crave. It’ll be well worth watching McFadden’s words on just whether the changing picture in the world means the manifesto isn’t so iron-clad now.
Food for thought: There will be a big battle for ideas in the smouldering wreck of the election results, as all sorts of interest groups jostle to get their ideas before a Starmer scrabbling round for rejuvenated policy platform … or his successor. The Labour Growth Group has announced a May 12 launch of what promises to be a new center-left diagnosis of Britain’s challenges and a plan for fixing it in favor of Britain’s “grafters.”
It’s elementary: Tom Watson has urged Labour MPs to stop all the plotting to remove Starmer. And Watson speaks with some experience of that. As a junior minister he spearheaded the last letter-based attempted coup against a Labour premier… that led to Tony Blair naming his departure date. “I would tell them not to be as reckless as we were in 2006,” the former deputy leader wrote on his Substack. Hindsight is one hell of a drug.
It’s all ancient Greek: In the Mail, Jason Groves and Dan Hodges hear Cabinet ministers are discussing a “Trojan Horse” plot to demand Starmer stop blocking Andy Burnham from the Commons, as long as the Manchester mayor publicly professes loyalty. That, figures pushing this theory goes, would allow all the infighting to stop because there would be a “clear successor” to Starmer in place. Touch wood!
Diolch! Two senior government officials have warned they are braced for Welsh Labour Leader Eluned Morgan to call for Starmer’s resignation at some point after the (lack of) votes are counted on Friday. “Eluned will go over the top and call for him to go — it’ll be like Anas Sarwar all over again,” one of them told Playbook. Though the other downplayed the impact of the first minister (who may end up losing her seat) calling for the PM’s head as “priced in.”
It’s looking real: The Telegraph splashes on Morgan telling Amy Gibbons in an interview that there’s “a danger” Labour will lose its 27-year grip on the Senedd because of protest votes against Starmer. Morgan will be today telling the good people of Pembrokeshire just why they should vote
Plaid Cymru Labour.
Well Plaid: Rhun ap Iorwerth will hold Plaid Cymru’s final rally in Llandudno early this afternoon. His band of Welsh nationalists are shouting about the latest YouGov MRP for ITV in Wales has them up four points on 33 percent, and Reform static on 29 percent. That difference, according to Cardiff University calculations, would win Plaid 43 seats to Reform’s 34. Let’s face it, a lot would have to go right for the number crunchers for that to turn out correct — but, as ever, the polling will be important for narrative-setting on the doorsteps.
He’s on the stage, at least: Polling legend John Curtice is debating what the local and devolved elections will mean for the U.K., with former Nicola Sturgeon adviser Liz Lloyd and others, at an IfG event at 5.30 p.m. Details here.
And then quiet: An eerie calm before the political storm should then set in on Thursday, when election rules mean broadcasters have to stay schtum on political issues and they instead start pumping out a full day of dog content. Enjoy the peace while it lasts.
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TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
PARLIAMENT: Knocking doors.
ADOPTS STATESMAN MODE: The government is gearing up to legislate so that perpetrators of antisemitic attacks orchestrated from Tehran will face up to 14 years in prison, Matt Dathan and the Times team report in the paper’s splash. That includes if attackers are dimwittedly acting on behalf of Iranian proxies. Dathan and team report that the legislation will be included in next week’s king’s speech — and would also introduce the long-promised proscription-esque powers to ban state groups like the IRGC, as Starmer told the Jewish Chronicle last month.
Double it: The Home Office announced an extra £18 million in funding for the Met Police to boost patrols to tackle a surge in antisemitic hate crime. Commissioner Mark Rowley welcomed the extra dough — but Playbook (and others) privately hear he’s arguing that £35 million is the minimum required to keep communities safe in a “sustainable” way.
BUSINESS AS USUAL: Business Secretary Peter Kyle is at the G7 trade meeting. He’ll be in and out of meetings including, most crucially, one with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. He’ll then pop up on BBC Business Today, at 4.30 p.m. Kyle’s got his work cut out.
Unhappy anniversary: It’s now one whole year since Britain struck a trade deal with Donald Trump … but the fallout is still hitting Britain’s arable heartlands, as my colleague Sophie Inge reports. The decision to grant the U.S. a massive duty-free quota for bioethanol has undermined domestic production — knocking out a major market for U.K. wheat, depressing prices, and forcing farmers to lean more heavily on imports of animal feed just to stay afloat.
IN WESTMINSTER … OR ARE THEY? Some civil servants have been faking work attendance and failing to go to their offices for years on end, according to a Telegraph investigation. Some staff are accused of faking in-office work by connecting their office Wi-Fi from a nearby car park before returning home.
GAME, SET: The government is examining whether to make reselling tickets for specific major sporting events without authorization a criminal offense. The move is part of the government’s drive to make the U.K. “event ready,” alongside discussions about potential bids, including for the Olympic and Paralympic Games in the 2040s. BBC Sport has a write-up.
RULED: Four Palestine Action activists have been found guilty of criminal damage at a U.K. site of Israel-based defense firm Elbit Systems. One of the activists, 23-year-old Samuel Corner, was also found guilty of inflicting grievous bodily harm after striking Sergeant Kate Evans with a sledgehammer, fracturing her spine, the BBC reports. The break-in happened before Palestine Action was proscribed by the government (and we’re still waiting for the Court of Appeal judgment that could see that move overturned).
CONVENTIONAL THINKING: Leaving the European Convention on Human Rights would have “consequences” for the U.K. — including putting it in a group with the autocracies of Russia and Belarus, the head of the organization that oversees the treaty has warned. Alain Berset sat down with my POLITICO colleague Jon Stone.
THE BIG QUESTION: Migration Observatory Director Madeleine Sumption — and the Home Office’s interim Migration Advisory Committee chair — is delivering Bright Blue’s Ludgate lecture titled: “Can governments do immigration policy better?” Considering the Observatory recently pointed out the U.K. has the fifth-largest initial decision asylum backlog in Europe at the end of 2025, the answer to the lecture’s title may be: “probably?” Tune in at 1 p.m. to find out.
THE TATE WE’RE IN: Self-proclaimed misogynist Andrew Tate sought written assurances from prosecutors that he wouldn’t be arrested if he returned to the U.K. for a civil case in which he’s accused of rape, the High Court heard. The CPS declined the request by Tate and his brother Tristan, who were charged together last May with rape, sexual assault and other offenses. The Guardian has the story.
SW1 EVENTS: The Sir Harry Evans investigative journalism summit kicks off at 9.30 a.m., with talks from hacks including Gabriel Pogrund, Mishal Husain, Beth Rigby and Michael Gove.
REPORTS OUT TODAY: While 46 percent of U.K. residents are proud of where they live, only 37 percent of people feel their area is thriving, according to polling by JL Partners for the Social Value Commission … and the failure of Northern Ireland’s devolved institutions to deliver effective public policy and services may ultimately threaten their stability, and that of the Good Friday Agreement, argues the UCL Constitution Unit.
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BEYOND THE M25
ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE: Russian attacks killed more than 20 people across Ukraine on Tuesday, ahead of rival unilateral ceasefires proposed separately by Moscow and Kyiv. The BBC has the story.
TOUGH TALKS: Trump’s latest tariff threats are pushing EU talks on implementing last year’s transatlantic trade deal toward a showdown, my POLITICO colleagues report. Negotiators from the EU Parliament, national capitals and the European Commission are meeting today to try to hammer out their differences amid a deepening impasse over whether to back the accord.
COMING ATTRACTION: China’s top diplomat Wang Yi (who wants to get tankers moving in the Gulf) hosted Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in the last few hours — days before Trump’s planned visit to Beijing.
FEELING GROUNDED: Two million airline seats have been cut from this month’s schedules as airlines rethink their operations due to soaring jet fuel prices. The story splashes the Sun and the i Paper.
TRUMP ATHENS-BOUND: The U.S. president will visit Greece soon, U.S. Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle said Tuesday. She added that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will also visit Athens, along with Rubio. Trump may visit ahead of a NATO summit in Turkey on July 7-8.
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MEDIA ROUND
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … GB News (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.).
Shadow Transport Secretary Richard Holden broadcast round: LBC News (7.35 a.m.) … Sky News (7.50 a.m.) … GB News (8 a.m.) … Talk (8.20 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: SNP MP Stephen Gethins (7.45 a.m.) … Labour peer David Blunkett (8.05 a.m.) … former adviser to Keir Starmer Peter Hyman (8.35 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Mornings: Scottish Greens Co-Leader Ross Greer (8.40 a.m.) … Union of Jewish Students President Louis Danker (9.15 a.m.) … Scottish Liberal Democrats Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton (9.30 a.m.) … U.K. Birth Trauma Inquiry Chair Theo Clarke (9.40 a.m.).
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: One year on: The hidden impact of Trump’s trade deal with the U.K.
Daily Express: ‘Unremovable.’
Daily Mail: Thirty green candidates probed over Antisemitism.
Daily Mirror: We’re still only ones on your side.
Financial Times: Long-term borrowing costs highest in decades as prolonged inflation looms.
Metro: ‘A target on the back of UK Iran critics.’
The Daily Telegraph: Starmer could cost us election, says Welsh leader.
The Guardian: Labour under pressure after UK borrowing costs hit 28-year high.
The i Paper: Millions face flight cancellations as jet fuel shortage deepens and Iran ceasefire falters.
The Independent: Ceasefire shattered as Iran fires drones and missiles at UAE.
The Sun: Come cry with me.
The Times: New powers to treat Iran proxies as foreign spies.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Sunny spells. High 13C, low 9C.
SPAD MOVE: Jonathan Heywood has started as a policy SpAd for Shabana Mahmood in the Home Office.
NEW GIG: Former Teneo Senior Managing Director Alex Hickman has joined JL Partners as a director.
JOB AD: Labour MP Naushabah Khan is hiring a chief of staff.
MEA CULPA: Smoking is the biggest cause of preventable death in the U.K.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK THURSDAY MORNING: Sam Francis.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Former PM Tony Blair … Birmingham Northfield MP Laurence Turner … Labour peer John Hutton … U.K. Deputy Permanent Representative to the U.N. James Kariuki … former SNP MSPs Alasdair Allan and Stuart McMillan … Labour peer Parry Mitchell … Lib Dem Head of Media Christine Longworth.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Dan Bloom, Alex Spence and James Panichi; diary reporter Bethany Dawson; and producers Dean Southwell and Hugh Kapernaros.
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