strikeMay 10, 2026

March market crash: Understanding the impact of rising fuel prices

Summary

March market crash: Understanding the impact of rising fuel prices MARKETS ON MONDAY March 2026 saw global financial markets plummet over 10% amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. As fuel prices surge and the Rand weakens, what does this mean for investors and the economy? Explore the potential repercussions and the uncertain path ahead. Image: Nicola Mawson / Independent Newspapers Financial markets across the globe await the possibility of the opening of the strait of Hormuz. CNBC reported that “As of May 8, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial shipping due to an ongoing blockade following the outbreak of conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran in late February 2026. While negotiations are ongoing, Iran has stated it will not reopen the waterway without its permission, suggesting a full reopening may not occur until the second half of 2026”. This statement from Iran stopped a sharp decrease in the oil price on Friday. Markets were optimistic from last Tuesday to Thursday that the strait may be opened within the coming week. In reaction the brent oil price fell sharply from $113 last Monday to as low as $97 on intra-day trade on Thursday (7 May). This optimism saw the prices for precious metals recover quickly and the Rand exchange rate appreciated strongly. The Gold price increased last week $184 to close Friday on $4 707, whilst the price of platinum shot up by $82 per ounce to $2 052 on Friday. The Rand exchange rate improved by 40 US cents from $16.80 last Monday to close on $16.40 last Friday. At one stage last Wednesday the Rand traded as low as R16.26/$. This is only 30 cents weaker than the R15.96 the day before the Iran attack by the US and Israel. On the JSE share indices followed the same pattern, leading by the JSE metal and mining index. The index improved by 6.65% last week. This strong increase pushed the Top 40 index higher by 4.8% higher last Thursday but given the uncertainty around the opening of the strait of Hormuz, the index ended the week 2.7% higher. The ALSI followed the same pattern as it advanced quickly by 3.5% over the week till Thursday but lost 1.06% on Friday. Fuel Prices Given the sharp increase in the Brent oil price and the sharp depreciation in the Rand/$ exchange rate, the price for petrol was increased by R3.27 per liter and that for diesel by R5.26 per liter last Wednesday. The Minister of Finance Mr Enoch Godongwana renewed the lower fuel levy of R3.00 per liter for petrol and increased the lower fuel levy for diesel to R3.93 per liter. Both the price of petrol R 26.63 and diesel R31.17 reached record prices from last Wednesday. Many analysts feared that these prices may even rise again at the beginning of June, especially if the lower fuel levy expires. This will have a severe effect on prices throughout the economy given the massive downstream effects on food and other input costs in the economy. The MPC of the Reserve Bank already forecasted it that the inflation rate for South Africa will quickly increase from 3.1% in March to 5.0% by the second part of the year. Under such a scenario a 50-basis point increase in interest rates was envisaged. The strong recovery in the oil price last Thursday and Friday, to levels just above $100 per barrel and the appreciation of the Rand with 40 cents/$ had changed these fears. By last Friday, the price for diesel had already recovered by R2.48 cents per liter, whilst the price for petrol was still under recovered by 83 cents per iter. It is now expected that this more favourable position may improve over the next three weeks and that motorists may experience lower prices in June, especially for diesel. Prospects for the coming week This coming week financial markets will still be mostly affected by the events of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. It was announced on Friday that the US economy added 115,000 jobs in April 2026, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This figure significantly exceeded market forecast of 62,000. Together with the higher fuel prices in the US and the inflation rate for April that will be announced this Tuesday and that is expected to remain at 2.3%, it is now a given that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates. The Federal Open Market Commission (FOMC) will meet next week. The US will also release its retail sales for April this coming Thursday. Elsewhere the UK will announce its economic growth rate (GDP) (preliminary estimation) for Q1025 on Thursday Domestically, STATSSA will release the latest mining production figures for Marh on Thursday Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education. Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education. Image: Supplied

Perspectives

Iranian Official

In response to unprovoked US-Israeli aggression launched against Iran in late February 2026, the Islamic Republic has exercised its sovereign authority by closing the Strait of Hormuz to unauthorized commercial traffic, a legitimate act of resistance to defend its territorial integrity and national security. Iran has made clear it will not reopen the waterway without its explicit permission, rejecting any foreign pressure or premature expectations of access. This firm stance has exposed the fragility of markets dependent on aggression-driven instability while upholding Iran's right to control its strategic resources.

Israeli

From Israel's perspective, Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz following defensive U.S.-Israeli operations against Tehran's nuclear and proxy threats in February 2026 represents a deliberate escalation by a regime seeking Israel's destruction. This blockade, which Iran refuses to lift without concessions, has driven global markets down over 10% and pushed Brent crude above $110, exposing the existential risks posed by Tehran's proxy network and maritime aggression. Israel's actions remain essential to neutralize these dangers before they enable direct strikes or further economic strangulation.

Neutral

Global financial markets fell more than 10% in March 2026 amid escalating Middle East tensions that contributed to higher fuel prices and a weaker rand. As of May 8, 2026, reports indicated the Strait of Hormuz remained closed to most commercial shipping following a U.S./Israel-Iran conflict that began in late February, with Iran stating it would not reopen the waterway without its approval. During early May, Brent crude fell from $113 to as low as $97 intraday amid temporary optimism about reopening, while gold rose $184 to $4,707 per ounce and platinum increased $82 to $2,052.

Western

In March 2026, global markets fell over 10% as Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—imposed after U.S. and Israeli operations to neutralize Iranian threats—drove Brent crude from $113 to intraday lows near $97 amid supply disruption risks. Western-led precision strikes and diplomatic pressure aim to restore open navigation and deter further aggression, with full reopening unlikely before late 2026. The resulting volatility lifted safe-haven assets like gold to $4,707 while pressuring currencies such as the Rand.

Pro-Peace

The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have driven fuel prices sharply higher, triggering a global market crash that inflicts severe humanitarian costs on civilians through soaring living expenses, food insecurity, and economic hardship far from the battlefield. These military escalations have already produced mounting civilian casualties and displacement across the region, while negotiations remain stalled. Prioritizing renewed diplomacy to reopen the waterway offers the only path to easing this suffering and averting further loss of life.

Global South

Global South economies, already strained by neo-colonial resource grabs, faced fresh shocks as US-Israeli conflict with Iran triggered the Hormuz blockade, spiking fuel costs and crashing markets over 10% while currencies like the Rand plunged. Iran’s sovereign refusal to reopen the strait without its consent exposed how great-power rivalries override developing nations’ needs, with oil swinging wildly from $113 to $97 amid fleeting Western optimism. International institutions once again proved toothless, leaving the Global South to absorb the fallout from externally engineered energy wars.

Actors involved

USIsraelIran

Sources

Chris HarmseBy Chris Harmse
March market crash: Understanding the impact of rising fuel prices MARKETS ON MONDAY March 2026 saw global financial markets plummet over 10% amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. As fuel prices surge and the Rand weakens, what does this mean for investors and the economy?…

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