O'Donnell: The Deal Is No Deal – Strangle the IRGC, Attack the Jugular

Summary

A recent leaked CIA report stated the Iranian regime can hold out against the blockade for three or four months. We cannot throw them a lifeline in the form of a deal that leaves them in power. Now is the time to crush them. The world cannot allow a terror-state to blackmail and shut down major oil and trade arteries and threaten the global economy. Yet that is exactly what the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies are attempting right now, firing on shipping lanes and oil infrastructure and civilian targets, daring the civilized world to respond. Any “deal” that leaves the IRGC in control of Iran’s oil revenue is no deal at all. A strategic win for the IRGC over the Strait of Hormuz would be catastrophic, not only for America, but the balance of global power. Giving Iran control of the strait would set up the IRGC as the dominant regional power and irreversibly diminish American deterrence and influence by showing us to be an unreliable partner. It could be looked at as a green light for the CCP to take Taiwan. In light of this, we must target their revenue streams—ruthlessly. The IRGC’s war machine runs on oil money. Every tanker, every land bridge, every port, and every laundering scheme must be neutralized. Seize the tankers. Iran’s ghost fleet and shadow fleet must be boarded, disabled, or sunk. Just as we did with Venezuelan oil transports, the U.S. and allies must interdict every vessel carrying regime crude. No exceptions. The overland routes funneling weapons, drones, and cash to Russia and beyond must be severed. Precision strikes on key rail lines, highways, and transfer hubs in northern Iran will choke off this secondary revenue artery. Attack the Caspian Sea ports. These northern export nodes are lifelines for the regime’s illicit trade. They must be rendered inoperable. As I argued in my earlier piece, “Implement an Anaconda Plan to Free Iran Once and for All,” the air campaign and targeted strikes have been executed brilliantly, but they are not enough. A strategy to strangle Iran economically must be applied mercilessly to the mullahs’ terror empire. The IRGC’s jugular is its revenue. Cut it off, and the regime collapses. Leave it intact, and they will simply rebuild, rearm, and strike again—harder and sooner than anyone imagines. Short-term pain is inevitable. Oil prices will spike. Markets will flinch. But the alternative—allowing a nuclear-armed terror state to continue threatening the Strait of Hormuz and Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and to dictate terms—is far worse. If the IRGC is not dealt with now, the pain will be permanent: higher energy costs forever, emboldened proxies everywhere, and an America whose deterrence is laughed at from Tehran to Beijing. Eliminate oil laundering. Iran is moving oil across the border into Iraq and mixing it with their oil to get it on the market. Shut it down along with the financial shell games, the third-party buyers, and the client-state middlemen who help Tehran evade sanctions. Follow the money, freeze the accounts, and expose every corrupt actor propping up the terror state. The crown jewel remains Kharg Island—the regime’s Achilles’ heel, handling up to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. Disable it with electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons or destroy its facilities, and the economic noose tightens to the breaking point. This is the Anaconda Plan in action: not endless occupation, but relentless economic strangulation until the regime can no longer breathe. Finally, sow chaos inside the regime. Unleash American and allied Special Operations forces to empower the people by providing weapons, training, and secure communications to freedom-loving Iranians prepared to fight for their liberation. The majority of the Iranian people hate the mullahs. Economic collapse and hyperinflation already sparked massive protests before the current conflict. Now is the time to turn that rage into organized resistance. The same economic pressures that brought Iranians into the streets will now arm them at the barricades. Target the regime’s centers of communication and destroy its ability to wield propaganda to its population and the world. Coordinate with Iran’s neighbors, who are itching for vengeance after IRGC attacks on their civilian populations and oil infrastructure. Irregular warfare must be met with irregulars. America has 250 years of expertise in this arena. Use it. If necessary, launch commando raids to neutralize Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and enriched uranium. On par with the safety of the free world, as in the epic raids against Nazi Germany’s heavy water program in Norway, they may be necessary to finish off any remaining nuclear infrastructure and enriched uranium stockpiles, ensuring the regime never threatens the world again with nuclear weapons. Or they should be neutralized from the air via conventional or unconventional weapons – whatever it takes. Authoritarian regimes are fragile. Without oil revenue, the IRGC becomes a zombie force—broke, isolated, and unable to pay its militias or proxies. We can afford no more half-measures. An economic stranglehold may take time to work, but it will dramatically shorten the regime’s timeline for survival. Right now, they think they can outlast the United States and its allies. There are moments in history when allowing an evil terrorist state to exist is incompatible with a free world. This is one of them. President Trump and our allies have already taken bold steps with Operation Epic Fury. The mission must not stop at destroying missiles and ships. We must finish the IRGC: strangle its revenue, free the Iranian people, and ensure the terror state never threatens civilization again. Handing the IRGC a strategic victory that gives them control the world’s oil fields and trade routes would be catastrophic. The deal is no deal. Attack the jugular. The future of freedom demands nothing less. Patrick K. O’Donnell is a bestselling, critically acclaimed military historian and a leading authority on American elite and special operations units. The author of fourteen books, including Revolutionary Snipers: Washington’s Frontier Commandos Whose Marksmanship Forged a New Way of War and Helped Win the Revolution, The Unvanquished, The Indispensables, The Unknowns, and Washington’s Immortals, he is a senior fellow at Mount Vernon and has received numerous national awards. O’Donnell served as a combat historian with a Marine rifle platoon during the Battle of Fallujah. He is a director and the historian for The OSS Society and is a professional speaker who frequently lectures on America’s conflicts, espionage, special operations, and the Revolutionary War. He has provided historical consulting for DreamWorks’ award-winning miniseries Band of Brothers and for documentaries produced by the BBC, the History Channel, and Discovery. @combathistorian www.patrickkodonnell.com COMMENTS Please let us know if you're having issues with commenting.