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strikeMar 31, 2026

Stocks Surge on Signs the US and Iran Seek to End War

Summary

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed up +2.91%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +2.49%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +3.43%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +2.88%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +3.42%. Stock indexes rallied sharply on Tuesday in hopes that an end to the Iran war is near. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that President Trump signaled he was willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The report said Mr. Trump believes the US should wind down hostilities while pressuring Iran diplomatically to reopen the Strait. If that fails, the US will press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the waterway. US and Israeli forces pressed ahead with attacks on Iran on Tuesday, while Iran hit a Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai in a drone attack, and the UAE reported a drone attack.Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily. Stocks added to their gains, and crude oil prices tumbled Tuesday afternoon after Iran signaled openness to resolving the war. Iranian President Masoud Pezeskhian said his country had the "necessary will to end this war," provided that hostilities end on all fronts and that Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is recognized. Falling bond yields are also supportive of stocks, as the 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 1-week low of 4.28% on Tuesday. Bond yields declined amid hopes that an end to the Iran war will lower energy prices, easing inflation concerns. Stocks also found support on Tuesday after the US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose. The US Jan S&P CaseShiller composite-20 home price index rose +1.18% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.38% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 2.5 years. The US Mar MNI Chicago PMI fell -4.9 to 52.8, weaker than expectations of 55.0. The Conference Board US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose +0.8 to 91.8, stronger than expectations of a decline to 87.9. US Feb JOLTS job openings fell -358,000 to 6.882 million, weaker than expectations of 6.890 million. Hawkish comments on Tuesday from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid were negative for stocks, as he said he's "more focused on the risks to inflation at this time" and that he's concerned inflation will get stuck closer to 3% as the recent surge in energy prices will likely feed through to core inflation. Signs of strength in China’s economy are supportive for global growth prospects and stocks. The China March manufacturing PMI rose +1.4 to 50.4, better than expectations of 50.1 and the strongest pace of expansion in a year. Also, the China March non-manufacturing PMI rose by +0.6 to 50.1, better than expectations of 49.9. Crude oil prices (CLK26) fell from a 3-week high on Tuesday but remain supported despite President Trump signaling he is willing to end the war with Iran, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region. Iran is also seeking to control ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, asking vessels to provide lists of crew and cargo, along with voyage details and bills of lading if they want to travel through the waterway. Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March. The International Energy Agency said last Monday that more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains once the war in Iran ends. The markets are discounting a 3% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting. Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.50%. China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 1-week high and closed down -0.80%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-month low and closed down -1.58%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Tuesday closed up by +7.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield fell -4.1 bp to 4.307%. June T-notes rose to a 1-week high on Tuesday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low of 4.283%. T-notes moved higher on Tuesday in hopes that an end to the Iran war will lower energy prices and ease inflation concerns. T-notes fell from their best level after the US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose and after Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said he's "more focused on the risks to inflation at this time." European government bond yields moved lower on Tuesday. The 10-year German bund yield fell -3.1 bp to 3.004%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -1.9 bp to 4.916%. Eurozone Mar CPI rose +2.5% y/y, the most in 14 months, but below expectations of +2.6% y/y. Mar core CPI rose +2.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.4% y/y. German Feb retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.3% m/m increase. ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said, "The ECB can't rule out changes in interest rates already in April if energy prices remain at a high level for a long time." Swaps are discounting a 55% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30. US Stock Movers The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are climbing today, helping lift the overall market. Meta Platforms (META) closed up more than +6%, and Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed up more than +5%. Also, Tesla (TSLA) closed up more than +4%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) closed up more than +3%. In addition, Apple (AAPL) closed up more than +2%. Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +12% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and chip stocks after Nvidia said it is investing $2 billion in the company. Also, ON Semiconductor (ON) closed up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Sandisk (SNDK) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed up more than +10%. In addition, Western Digital (WDC), Intel (INTC), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) closed up more than +7%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) and Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +6%. Finally, Applied Materials (AMAT), Broadcom (AVGO), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed up more than +5%, and Micron Technology (MU), Analog Devices (ADI), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed up more than +4%. Airline stocks surged on Tuesday as crude oil prices fell by more than -1% in hopes that an end to the Iran war is near. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed up more than +8%, and Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed up more than +7%. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up more than +5%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed up more than +3%. Home builders and building suppliers moved higher on Tuesday after the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low, which lowers mortgage rates and supports housing demand. Builders Firstsource (BLDR) and Toll Brothers (TOL) closed up more than +4%, and DR Horton (DHI) and Pulte Group (PHM) closed up more than +3%. Also, Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) closed up more than +2%. Energy producers and energy service providers moved lower on Tuesday after WTI crude oil fell from a 3-week high, dropping by more than 1%. APA Corp (APA) and Devon Energy (DVN) closed down more than -2%, and Chevron (CVX) closed down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO) closed down more than -1%. Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) closed up more than +135% after being acquired by Biogen for $5.6 billion, or about $41 a share. Biogen (BIIB) closed down more than -2% on the news. Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) closed up more than +44% after Eli Lilly agreed to buy the company for about $7.8 billion or $38 a share, plus a further $9 a share if three milestone targets are met. Scholar Rock (SRRK) closed up by more than +14% after it resubmitted its Biologics License Application for apitegromab, a muscle-targeted therapy for spinal muscular atrophy. Nebius Group NV (NBIS) closed up more than +12% after saying it plans to build a 310-megawatt server facility in Finland. Caterpillar (CAT) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Barclays raised its price target on the stock to $700 from $625. FactSet Research Systems (FDS) closed up more than +6% after reporting Q2 revenue of $611 million, better than the consensus of $604.9 million, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $2.45 billion to $2.47 billion from a previous estimate of $2.42 billion to $2.45 billion, above the consensus of $2.45 billion. Phreesia (PHR) is down more than -26% after cutting its 2027 revenue forecast to $510 million to $520 million from a previous forecast of $545 million to $559 million, well below the consensus of $550.9 million. Constellation Energy (CEG) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after forecasting 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $11 to $12.00, the midpoint below the consensus of $11.72. McCormick & Co (MKC) closed down more than -6% after agreeing to acquire Unilever’s Food business for $15.7 billion in cash and $29.7 billion of stock. Earnings Reports(4/1/2026) Conagra Brands Inc (CAG), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW), MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM).On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. More news from Barchart - This Dividend King Is Down 26%. When Will It Bounce Back? - Ignore the Panic and Buy the Dip in Micron Stock, Says Bank of America - Ignore the TurboQuant Panic and Keep Buying Seagate Technology Stock, Says JPMorgan - Constellation Energy Just Broke Below Its 50-Day Moving Average. Should You Buy the CEG Stock Dip as Company Misses Guidance? The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

Resolution would be culmination of standoff over IAEA's access to nuclear sites A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

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Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb. The amount it has enriched to that level is "a matter of serious concern" to the IAEA. The IAEA believes well over 200 kg of that highly enriched uranium has survived the bombardments and is held in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and at the Natanz facility.

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The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

Location: Iran