strikeJun 28, 2026

The Path To A September Rate Cut (Despite AI Inflation)

Summary

The Path To A September Rate Cut (Despite AI Inflation) By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities The Path to a September Rate Cut (despite AI inflation) A lot has changed in the past 24 hours. After Thursday’s CNBC interview, it seemed obvious (to me) that I needed to write about how there is a real path to a Fed Rate Cut in September. Not only has the market priced in a 75% chance of a hike in September, and 1.25 hikes by the December meeting, most have also taken any chance of a cut off the table. I think that is missing the path that I believe Warsh is trying to create. We argued last weekend, The Fed and Rates, that Warsh had curtailed the tail risk on the long end of the curve. We switched from bearish to neutral on the long end of the curve (10s went from 4.46% to 4.37% this week). The more we think about it, the more we believe that he has started us on a path, that despite his hawkish rhetoric, sets up for a cut in September to be followed by another cut in October, just ahead of the midterms. Two things occurred, making me rethink today’s topic: Iran and doubts about the AI trade. Those two topics are important enough that we need to at least address them, but in the end, we decided to focus on the path to rate cuts, as the other two stories will take time to play out. Iran, Attacks Resume, But Ceasefire is Not Officially Broken Iran and the U.S. exchanged fire on Friday and Saturday, and fighting continues to be a risk this weekend. Academy published a SITREP on The U.S. Strikes Iranian Targets over Ceasefire Violation. For now, the working assumption is that this round of back-and-forth attacks will not derail the discussions. That both sides were “flexing” to remind the other side of why they are at the table. If the ceasefire breaks down, the hostilities escalate, and the oil trade is once again disrupted, then the odds of a September rate cut look bleak, but for now, that is not our base case on Iran. There are two things that have not gotten the attention they deserve with respect to oil prices: The U.S. drained the SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) rapidly and to its limit, which kept oil prices capped, but that ability is largely gone, so something needs to be done. Providing sanction relief to Iranian oil may be as important as re-opening the Strait. Providing sanction relief not only brings more Iranian oil to the market than before, but it also lets them move the oil they were already sending (above sanctioned limits) with a higher degree of flexibility and transparency. The fact that the concept of OPEC seems to be in tatters doesn’t hurt either. Admirals Joyner and Whitworth, along with Bret Lowry, Maria Donnelly and I (Peter Tchir), touched on the f ragility of the peace between Iran and the U.S. in this month’s Around the World Podcast (iTunes and Spotify). The podcast also provides an update on our take on the Russia/Ukraine war, Cuba (which doesn’t get the attention it deserves), and of course, China and macro. We need to keep a close eye on Iran, but for now, we see us limping along the path to discussing the details of the rather vague MOU that both sides seem to interpret very differently. Questioning the AI Growth Story We continue to see two economies. The AI and Data center economy and the rest of the economy. The former has been generating the jobs, the growth, and the earnings. The SOX Index (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index as if anyone, anywhere doesn’t know what the SOX is at this time) hit a high on Monday before dropping almost 10% from there. Micron’s earnings call helped generate a rebound on Thursday, but that proved to be short-lived. Questions are swirling around the spending. The cost of the buildout (more on that later). The utility of AI versus the cost of using AI. At some level, is the cost of using AI rising even faster than the benefits? The growing angst about AI and Robotics (in our AI Revolution pieces) continues to grow and is something the AI companies need to aggressively address before it becomes a problem (via legislation or taxes, for example). This isn’t a debate that will be answered today, but it does seem like the market is starting to rethink valuations. Stories were circulating that OpenAI may delay their highly anticipated IPO from this year to 2027. Since there is no official timetable, it is difficult to evaluate the veracity of such news, but it did little to help market sentiment. It is always risky (and not wise) to publish a chart that one does not really understand. But rarely has the T-Report been accused of being risk averse and wise, so here it goes. According to Bloomberg the Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index (is a daily statistical benchmark to measure the effective expenditure level of the actively traded broad LLM Market, measuring price per million tokens). Say that ten times quickly! I really don’t know how good this index is at measuring what it tries to measure (and it is in its infancy in any case), but it seems like something worth paying attention to as we all try to figure out where we are headed on AI spend (not just the spending to build out AI and data centers, but the actual spending on the compute they provide). For what it’s worth, credit spreads in the sector started to widen recently. Not that problematic and certainly not enough to derail the borrowing to spend, but it is always worth paying attention to credit. Expect more questions about valuations, even with good news, let alone with bad news. The Path to a September Rate Cut Let’s get to the “ fun ” part of today’s Report. We will lay out a case for September Rate Cuts that is entirely consistent with Warsh’s messaging. We will do this, step by step. Some of the “steps” may seem to be disjointed, but I think they all tie well together. Miran and The Neutral Rate Let’s just go back in time, before the U.S. attacked Iran. Miran was the administration’s inside person on the Fed. I didn’t like that he voted to cut every single time, but I think he did a lot of good work on the Neutral Rate. The Neutral Rate, like R* and many other things in the field of economics, sounds precise, but is incredibly difficult to measure. There is a range of what the Neutral Rate is at any given time. That range moves along with the economy and technology. I felt attacking the neutral rate, and arguing that it was lower than the previous Fed had thought, was a solid argument towards getting cuts. You could probably justify 50 to 100 bps of cuts, just based on arguing that the prior Fed had been wrong on where the neutral rate was. It is not an accident that I try to frame this as the “new” Fed blaming the “old” Fed for mistakes. It is consistent with this admin (and every other administration), to blame prior administrations for mistakes. It is often reserved for Presidents, but the tactic can be applied more broadly. While no one is talking about the neutral rate today, I think this work will become relevant again. STOP WITH THE PCE CHATTER! Surprisingly, few things make my head explode (though high on the list is The Big Short’s portrayal of just a few people seeing cracks in the housing market, when lots of people saw the issue, but got stopped out because they timed it wrong). But on Thursday my head nearly exploded, as I heard over and over that “ PCE, The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ” did whatever it did. I don’t know what it did because the PCE is NOT this Fed’s preferred measure. I’m not even sure if it was Powell’s favorite measure. I’m pretty positive Bernanke said it was the best measure. Maybe Yellen did too? Maybe Powell, though that doesn’t stand out. But I can pretty much guarantee you that Warsh doesn’t stay awake at night looking at PCE data. The Data Source Task Force I keep raising my hand (though I’m not sure that is a thing), but I’d love to be on the data source task force. Garbage In, Garbage Out. This is where we square the circle on Warsh’s tough stance on inflation, with achieving a September Rate Cut. Which data set do you believe? The blue line is Owners ’ Equivalent Rent of Residences. It feeds into CPI. You can read the BLS Description. I challenge anyone to read that and argue it reflects anything in the world of renting shelter today. In our “beloved” CPI, OER didn’t peak until the middle of 2023. Even then it “peaked” at 8%. Zillow peaked at almost 16% back in early 2022! For anyone who remembers the rental market post-Covid, which metric seems right? Remember Team Transitory, who was still going ahead with QE while “contemplating” a rate cut, basing their assessment on inflation in shelter on OER versus something actually seen in the real world? What is the BLS & Cleveland Fed New Tenant Repeat Rent NTRR YoY index? If you guessed, worst name ever for an index, you are probably correct! It is an index that the Cleveland Fed introduced (with little fanfare) to try to track rents. Guess what? It tracks the Zillow index pretty darn well! So, Warsh doesn’t even need to go to outside sources! The Task Force can ask the somewhat obvious question – Why don’t we use the index that the smart people in Cleveland created? They did this work for a reason! They know OER is flawed. Maybe OER needs to be in CPI because it takes an act of Congress to change the CPI calculation (because it is used for Social Security benefits). But maybe, just maybe, someone at the Fed can say we should base monetary policy on something that resembles the real world, instead of some archaic, obsolete metric? Two things come out of this work: The Team Transitory mistake was waiting too long to tighten monetary policy, because they were looking at the wrong data. Affordability, not inflation, is the bigger problem people face, and the affordability problem was a 2021/2022 problem, that was NEVER picked up accurately by the inflation data. Now let’s go back to PCE and bring back Truflation. I put the “green” line for inflation target at 2.9% rather than 2%. Yes, we have been “conditioned” to treat 2% as the target, but Warsh did “hint” that the left side (i.e., “big figure”) is more important than the total or “rounded” number. Sure, 2.9% isn’t 2%, but expect to be “conditioned” over the coming months to see that 2 point something is close enough to 2. Truflation core is currently at 1.45% and has been below 1.8% since February. Truflation produces real-time, daily inflation indices and other economic data to provide a more transparent and current view of the market than traditional government-reported metrics. Unlike monthly, survey- based methods, Truflation’s indices are compiled using extensive datasets (you had me at real time. You also had me at datasets). It is also quite obvious, that had Team Transitory even glanced at Truflation we might have moved to tighter monetary policy sooner? The same two mistakes that show up in housing show up in this as well: The Team Transitory mistake was waiting too long to tighten monetary policy, because they were looking at the wrong data. Affordability, not inflation, is the bigger problem people face, and the affordability problem was a 2021/2022 problem, that was NEVER picked up accurately by the inflation data. The Data Source Task Force will come back with data that provides cover to cut and that data is likely better for basing decisions on, than the data the Fed has been wedded to! Affordability NOT Inflation I’m not even sure how to “fix” this chart, but I will figure it out (maybe with the help of AI). We don’t look at the CPI data series very often. We tend to focus on monthly or annual changes. But affordability is the cumulative effect and that is what is hitting people. Given what we saw with Truflation and with rent, I suspect that CPI understates the real-world problem – by a LOT. And the problem is primarily a 2021 and 2022 problem! I think there are cases to be made around past mistakes being made because the wrong data was used. Avoiding future mistakes by looking at the correct data makes sense! The Impact of the War Being “Over” We can quibble about whether the war is over or not, but going back to Academy’s SITREP, we expect peace talks to continue, and the flow of oil to also continue. Yes, there are problems in the energy ecosystem. We are “higher for longer” in prices, from oil out to January, to diesel, etc., but by all accounts the worst is behind us. Why would we possibly be pricing in war impacts on inflation, when we seem to be in some new status quo? Maybe I spend too much time with geopolitical experts, but we don’t see a return to full hostilities, or significantly higher oil prices. Again, the removal of sanctions is a big deal. The Administration’s Goals Have NOT Changed The President didn’t wake up one day a few weeks ago, and tell Warsh, go ahead and hike. The President, as I believe he reiterated again this week, says he knows a lot about real estate and lower rates help real estate. So, you can believe that Warsh is truly hawkish, that Bessent no longer cares about 3, 3, 3, and the President is oblivious to his hand-picked Fed Chair being hawkish (a chair who will likely spend Thanksgiving dinner at the home of his father-in-law, a large Trump donor), or you can think about what “master plan” is behind all of this. Imagine (it is easy if you try) that Warsh convinced Trump that sounding dovish right now would be a disaster. Imagine (again, it is easy if you try) that he convinced the President to let me sound hawkish on inflation. That my hawkish message will control the long end of the yield curve (which it did). That we will convince every reporter and Wall Street analyst to believe we are going to hike and fight inflation. That we are retaining our independence (which they will to a degree). And then Mr. President, this is the “good” part, data will start rolling our way. Inflation is already overpriced and with the war ending, it will come down more. Then, we will argue (persuasively, because it is true) that we should use other sources of data that show lower inflation. Then, Mr. President, we will dazzle them with “neutral rate” mumbo jumbo. It has always been mumbo jumbo, but we will use it to our advantage. Then, when the hawks and “dumocrats” (or is it spelled with a b?) say we are not protecting the people against inflation, we will point out it is all about affordability and the prior administration and “their” Fed (despite Powell being appointed by Trump) being “too late” resulting in “the mess” we are in. You can agree or disagree with anything I just wrote on “political” grounds or otherwise, but can you really argue that it cannot play out that way? AI and Data Center Inflation Do you know what sort of spending is not affected by 50 bps of hikes? Spending by companies trading at 100x some multiple! (Ok, probably some hyperbole here, again, but seriously, 50 bps of hikes is meaningless to the data center/AI build). Just look at the price of electricity. Hiking to slow down AI/Data center spending (which is inflationary for now), will be incredibly ineffective/useless. The people hurt by 50 bps of hikes aren’t the ones driving inflation, they are the ones trying to stay one step ahead of the Repo Man (still a bizarre movie). AAPL dropped after announcing some price hikes. The price hikes on relatively expensive things to begin with (the upper part of the k rather than the lower part). But the market, I believe, perceived that those price hikes would not be absorbed easily. If one of the largest consumer product companies raises prices and the market questions their ability to pass on costs, what does that mean for the average company selling to consumers? I don’t read that as inflationary. Someone in my stream, who I cannot seem to find at the moment, pointed out that some of the survey data pointed to increases in prices paid, and declines in prices received. Bad for margins, but hardly inflationary. Anecdotally, and this was somewhat confirmed by a chip company we met with recently. Remember when they were “giving away” memory? I looked at updating my 5-year-old desktop. I have 64 gig of RAM. I do remember paying “up” for the upgrade. While today’s RAM is better, faster, etc., I was shocked, that most desktops came with 32 gig as standard and 64 gig was a relatively costly upgrade. This feeds back into the “ are AI/Data Centers getting too expensive” question? And yes, it is inflationary, but has nothing to do with the true affordability or the inflation problems many are dealing with. Bottom Line Look for the market to start pricing in rate cuts. If there is one “pound the table message” I’d give, it is lower yields at the front end of the curve. The “hike” community is applying the wrong data to this Fed. I’m less clear on the long end, but I’m neutral, to even slightly bullish on 10s. Bessent wants a 3 handle. Warsh took out the tail risk. There are all sorts of headwinds facing the longer end of the yield curve, but I think with some “appropriate” timing, the admin can launch Operation Twist with some other tools and force the long end lower. I’m far from certain on AI/Data Center valuations. I think with recent weakness, go heavily overweight energy, especially nuclear across the globe. As the President focuses on domestic issues, energy and electricity production remains front and center. Even Europe is nearing that point. Lean heavily on ProSec and overweight the biotech/pharma component, while underweight the chip component (still a critical part of ProSec but not where the best value is). Look for credit spreads to come under some pressure, as the big tech/data center/AI/space issuers have more to do and are less price sensitive than we are used to, because their multiples allow them to be less price sensitive. Just like their potential to issue more equity (after years of buybacks) is weighing on their equity. While Bitcoin and crypto in general aren’t moving markets like they once did (thanks to prediction markets and leveraged ETFs, etc.), the losses in crypto may slow down the “gambling” crowd, which won’t help equities in general, especially the high-flyer, momentum stocks that have benefited most from this crowd. Good luck and get ready for another short week, that will probably feel much longer than 4 days! Tyler Durden Sun, 06/28/2026 - 16:20

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The Path To A September Rate Cut (Despite AI Inflation) By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities The Path to a September Rate Cut (despite AI inflation) A lot has changed in the past 24 hours. After Thursday’s CNBC interview, it seemed obvious (to me) that I needed to …

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

US strikes Iran for 10th consecutive night as Tehran strikes tanker in the Strait of Hormuz

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

JON GAMBRELL, Associated Press

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranRussiaChina

How the US-Iran conflict has thrown India’s Chabahar plans into doubt

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7 min readNew DelhiJul 21, 2026 03:06 PM IST A dramatic image posted on social media by US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth last week fuelled concern in India. It showed the maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port collapsing after US military strikes.

The image was part of a series of photographs posted by Hegseth, captioned: “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz”. While New Delhi is already reeling under the impact of US sanctions on its strategically vital infrastructure project in Iran, where it has invested billions, the military strikes sparked fresh concerns.

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) clarified that the terminal it operates at Chabahar Port, Shahid Beheshti, was not damaged in the US strikes. “We have seen some reports in that regard, but we can also tell you that the terminal itself did not face any damage,” said MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal.

The ministry, however, reiterated India’s position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts. Here’s a look at the strategic importance of Chabahar for India, New Delhi’s investment in the project and how its future hangs in the balance.

India’s stakes in Chabahar The Chabahar port has two main terminals — Shahid Beheshti and Shahid Kalantari — with India managing the latter. It is operated by India Ports Global Ltd (IPGL), a wholly owned subsidiary of India Ports Global Chabahar Free Zone (IPGCFZ), under a 10-year renewable agreement with Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation.

A tower at the Chabahar port in 2021. Wikimedia Commons India and Iran have been developing Chabahar as a key trade and connectivity hub, particularly to improve access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Chabahar holds strategic importance for India as it provides an alternative trade route to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan, which does not allow Indian goods transit through its territory.

For Iran, Chabahar is vital because it is its only oceanic port with direct access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the congested Strait of Hormuz. To ensure its continuous operation, India and Iran signed a landmark 10-year contract in May 2024 — replacing previous short-term contracts — to equip and operate the Shahid Beheshti terminal.

To avoid financial penalties in the wake of US sanctions, India prepaid its $120 million investment and transferred its operational stake at Shahid Beheshti to local entities. Story continues below this ad US sanctions on Chabahar American sanctions on Chabahar stem from its broader economic and military measures against Tehran.

Despite India’s continued efforts to develop the port for regional connectivity, the history of these sanctions and waivers has severely restricted the project’s progress. The Donald Trump administration walked the US out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, and imposed sanctions on dealing with Tehran.

At the same time, it also granted a targeted sanctions waiver for the Chabahar port to support humanitarian and economic efforts in Afghanistan. Chabahar port location For several years, the port facilitated the delivery of Indian wheat and medical supplies to Afghanistan.

In September last year, the US administration withdrew the sanctions waiver, only to grant the exemption again through a six-month waiver in October that officially expired on April 26. Jaiswal said that India has been in discussions with “relevant stakeholders” after the expiry of the waiver.

Story continues below this ad “There was a waiver which was given by America and that waiver got over some time back. Post that, we have been in discussion with relevant stakeholders as to how to take this particular issue forward,” he said. Owing to the end of the sanctions waivers, India is losing its direct operational control over the Chabahar project.

Importance for New Delhi, Tehran Chabahar is vital for India not only because it provides direct, secure access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, but also because it serves as a counterweight to China’s development of the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, located just 140 km away.

The sea-land transit route that allows India to bypass Pakistan is also viewed as an important part of the International North-South Transport Corridor, a multi-mode transport network connecting India with Iran, Russia, Europe and parts of Central Asia.

In that sense, the port represents far more than maritime infrastructure. For Tehran, however, it also serves as a crucial economic hub in the Sistan-Baluchistan province, functioning as a gateway to connect Iran with landlocked Central Asian states, Afghanistan and Russia.

As Chabahar was hit by the US military strikes last week, Iran Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei lashed at Hegeseth, talking about Chabahar in the same breath as the Minab school attack. “The Chabahar Maritime Surveillance Tower — a civilian facility dedicated to maritime safety and navigation — was deliberately targeted by the United States on 16 June as part of its ongoing aggression that began on 28 February.

The US Secretary of War proudly released footage of the tower’s collapse,” Baqaei posted. “Had he been able, he would likely have broadcast the lethal missile attack on the Minab school and the massacre of civilians in Lamerd with the same chilling pride.

” Future hangs in balance In 2024, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told Parliament that the grant assistance for the supply of equipment (to Chabahar) had been enhanced to $120 million. “India has also committed to provide a Line of Credit of $250 million in rupee equivalent for the development of Chabahar Port.

Since 2018, the port has handled over 450 vessels, 1,34,082 TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent) of containerised cargo and more than 8.7 million tons of bulk and general cargo,” he said. Story continues below this ad India has already supplied port equipment worth about $24 million to develop the port, he said, adding: “The process for procurement of remaining port equipment for Chabahar Port is underway.

” Chabahar had received an allocation of Rs 400 allocation in the previous financial year. But the Union Budget for 2026-27 made no allocation for the port. This has left questions hanging over the future of this strategic trade route to Afghanistan, and further to Central Asia.

Without Chabahar, India loses its primary non-Pakistani corridor to landlocked markets, effectively undoing New Delhi’s decades of connectivity planning. The port had reduced transit times by 40% and costs by nearly a third, making it indispensable for India’s regional strategy.

Also, the situation is set to fuel strategic concerns for New Delhi if Beijing (via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and through Gwadar) could increase its geopolitical footprint in Iran. The elimination of the Chabahar waiver by the US by default tilts the regional balance toward China and Pakistan.

Divya A

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedIsraelIranProxy

How Houthi Red Sea blockade tightens Iran's grip on energy supplies

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Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.

Reuters

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

Another ship hit in Hormuz as Houthis add to regional risks

○ 1 source

A tanker identified as the Kaifan was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a July 21 report from UK Maritime Trade Operations. No ships were observed transiting the strait that day. Attribution of the strike and links to prior incidents have not been confirmed by the vessel’s owner.

Location: Strait of Hormuz

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