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ردیاب بحران ایران-خلیج فارس ۲۰۲۶
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strikeMar 14, 2026

Through the fog of the Gulf war

Summary

While the fighting between the United States, Israel and Iran remains centred in the Middle East, the situation has raised wider concerns about stability, global energy and the risk of the confrontation expanding beyond the region. For countries such as Thailand, the situation poses the challenge of navigating geopolitical tensions while preparing for possible economic and security repercussions if the fighting drags on or intensifies. Wanwichit Boonprong, a political scientist at Rangsit University, said the course of the conflict will largely depend on how far Washington chooses to extend its military involvement. If the US decides to send ground troops to Iran, its forces will find it difficult to operate due to the terrain, with Iran likely to be the toughest opponent the US has faced since the Vietnam War, he said. Iran also has networks of allied militant groups in the region, which could open multiple fronts against US and Israeli interests, he said. Even if the US forces manage to control strategic areas such as the Strait of Hormuz or weaken Iran's military capabilities in the early stage, its own strategic assets and those of Israel could face retaliatory attacks, increasing the risk of prolonged fighting. However, if Washington decides not to send in ground troops, it could declare victory, drop any attempts for regime changes in Iran and shift its focus back to domestic priorities, he said. "Under this scenario, it would reduce long-term impact on international industries and oil markets," he said. Mr Wanwichit said Iran has endured more than a decade of international sanctions and economic pressure with support from major powers like China and Russia. The US may negotiate with Beijing or Moscow to encourage Iran to scale down the confrontation, which could create an opportunity for Tehran to step back, he said. Wanwichit: Govt must remain neutral Neutrality first Mr Wanwichit said Thailand should maintain its traditional diplomatic stance of neutrality while emphasising humanitarian concerns. Highlighting civilian casualties -- such as reports of Iranian schoolchildren killed in the conflict -- would allow Thailand to underline the importance of protecting non-combatants. Thailand itself has experienced civilian casualties during cross-border attacks with Cambodia last year, and could draw on that experience to stress that civilians should never be drawn into armed conflict. "This stance allows Thailand to uphold humanitarian principles without taking sides," he said. Mr Wanwichit also warned that prolonged fighting could affect Thai workers in several Middle Eastern countries. Employment opportunities could be disrupted, forcing many workers to return home. He urged the government to prepare support measures, including temporary employment programmes and assistance for returning workers. Energy security is another key concern. The government should tell people about the country's energy reserves and supply capacity to prevent panic buying and maintain public confidence. "If people start worrying on their own and the government does not provide clear information, it could create unnecessary panic. The government should state how long our energy supplies will last and reassure the public that they are sufficient so consumer prices do not rise." Panitan: US victory not yet complete Talks within months Panitan Wattanayagorn, an international relations scholar, said he believes the conflict will gradually move towards negotiations as both sides have managed to stabilise their positions. From Washington's perspective, the military operations have achieved some strategic progress while Iran has managed to maintain political continuity after appointing new leadership and sustaining its defensive capabilities. However, he said two key difficulties remain, which could prolong the fighting for weeks or even months. First, Israel may seek to continue operations to further weaken Iran's military capabilities. Second, Iran's new leadership may not yet be in a strong position to enter negotiations. "The US has won, but not completely," Mr Panitan said. "Its objective of regime change failed, and it has faced criticism for violating international law and norms." At the same time, Iran has suffered heavy losses early in the conflict, including the death of its top leader and damage to its military infrastructure. Mr Panitan said international powers such as China and France could play an important role in facilitating negotiations. Iran may need to assure the international community that it will not pursue policies that violate international agreements or destabilise the region, while Israel may also need to reaffirm earlier regional agreements and ease tensions with neighbouring states. "I understand that attempts to start negotiations are under way, but talks will likely wait until the military situation stabilises, including the reopening of key maritime routes and ensuring the protection of oil tankers," he said. He estimated negotiations could begin within one to three months as economic pressures and disruptions to energy supplies and logistics intensify. Keeping distance Mr Panitan said Thailand should maintain a cautious and balanced diplomatic stance and avoid appearing to support either side while waiting for international institutions such as the United Nations to take the lead. It could also strengthen its position by expressing concern about violations of international norms that affect smaller countries and use its bilateral relationships with other countries to help protect and assist Thais overseas. He said the war offers lessons for Thailand's preparedness. Early warning signs of rising tensions in the Middle East appeared months ago, but Thai response measures were relatively slow compared with some other Asean countries, he noted. "This is a lesson for the future, especially given the volatility we are seeing, including public panic and stockpiling," he said. Mr Panitan also urged authorities to strengthen monitoring of foreign groups within Thailand as in the past, these groups were concentrated in limited areas, but they are now spreading across tourist destinations, mountainous areas, coastal locations and major cities. A taskforce of immigration authorities, the Labour Ministry, the Interior Ministry and security agencies could help improve information sharing and screening systems, he added.

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The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

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