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strikeJul 24, 2026

Trump warns of "massive attack" on Iran amid questions over endgame

Summary

A 13th consecutive night of U.S. bombing followed a warning by Donald Trump of a "massive attack" against Iran, adding to questions over what constitutes victory for the U.S. and how it can be achieved. Republican Representative Michael McCaul told Fox News the U.S. military "was winning this war against Iran," and with the conflict poised for a major escalation, it seems the metric for victory continues to shift. Goals of stopping Tehran from getting a nuclear weapon, degrading its ballistic missile arsenal, and ending its regional proxy threat now seem to be superseded by the immediate priority of fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz where one fifth of the world's energy products transits. "If Iran doesn't have exclusive control of the Strait of Hormuz and if the U.S. doesn't unfreeze the majority of Iran's frozen assets, I think this could be considered a win," Zev Faintuch, head of research and intelligence at security firm Global Guardian, told Newsweek. Freeing up around $24 billion worth of Iranian funds was said to be among the terms of the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MOU) which paused the Iran war, opened the Strait of Hormuz, and preceded 60 days of talks about Tehran's nuclear program. Faintuch said the latest strikes did not curb Iran's nuclear program as much as the 12-day war last June did but Iran's conventional military capabilities had been degraded, "so that's probably considered a victory." He believes the Trump administration will try to find some kind of off-ramp before September, around 60 days before the midterms. "We have another two to four weeks until there's going to be a pretty desperate diplomatic play." Latest US Strikes The U.S. president has said Iran was responsible for attacks by Tehran-backed Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which have threatened the other major chokepoint for shipping in the region. Trump told Axios Thursday, "I am considering a massive attack, bigger than ever before," without specifying further." The outlet reported that two other U.S. officials said no new orders have been given to the military. "I think what it means is a dramatically escalated air campaign," retired U.S. Vice Admiral Robert Murrett told Newsweek. "I don't see any evidence of large deployments of ground forces, or indicators that any kind of significant ground activity would take place." After Trump's comment, U.S. Central Command announced another night of strikes against Iranian military targets, with the aim of diminishing threats to commercial shipping from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). On Friday, separate strikes were reported, with one near Piranshahr in northwestern Iran. Another was on an IRGC naval base at Zibakenar on the Caspian Sea coast, with images showing smoke rising in the aftermath, independent outlet Iran International reported. Aurélien Colson, academic co-director of the ESSEC Business School Institute for Geopolitics & Business, told Newsweek the U.S. can further hurt Iran by bombing facilities, destroying air defenses, tightening sanctions, and raising the military and economic cost for Tehran. "But that is not the same as winning," he said, "there is no purely military solution to the Iranian nuclear question, which remains the key issue, in spite of the U.S. administration being focused on reopening the Hormuz Strait." "The U.S. can punish Iran, but it cannot bomb Iran into a stable nuclear settlement. If Washington defines victory as regime collapse or total surrender, it is setting itself up for failure." A U.S. strike at Iran’s Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq was reported on Thursday by Iran’s Mehr News Agency. Iran analyst Hamidreza Azizi, from the think tank SWP Berlin posted on X this could signal a preparatory move for the deployment of special operations or ground forces or allow for the advance of armed insurgent groups. Pickaxe Mountain a Target U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told ABC News that Trump's focus is "to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear weapons." It was this capability the U.S. president had in mind when he threatened on Tuesday to bomb the underground nuclear facility Pickaxe Mountain, 140 miles south of Tehran and just over a mile from the Natanz nuclear facility that was among Operation Midnight Hammer's targets last June. Iran has warned it would retaliate against any attack on its infrastructure or nuclear facilities with strikes against regional targets. There is speculation that this could include within Israel, where shelters have been opened across the country as a precautionary measure for potential escalation, Israeli media reported. "These developments suggest that the conflict may be entering a more dangerous phase, potentially comparable to the peak of the 40-Day War," Azizi said on X, referring to the conflict that started on February 28 with the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. "It remains unclear what the U.S. can do in this latest series of strikes that it has not done before," Vuk Vuksanović, associate at the London School of Economics think tank, LSE IDEAS, told Newsweek. "The only thing that the U.S. could do to try and change the outcome is too dangerous even to contemplate, which is a full-scale ground invasion of Iran." The number of U.S. service members killed during the war in Iran was lowered from 18 to 14 on Thursday and the prospect of more American casualties would be sensitive for Trump given his previous antipathy to the "forever wars" of his predecessors. Iran also retains the capacity to strike desalination and other critical infrastructure in the Gulf countries, which would trigger a humanitarian catastrophe in these countries, Vuksanović said. "The current situation is paradoxical—while a diplomatic resolution of the conflict is nowhere in sight, the price of further escalation is enormous and difficult to contemplate." Meanwhile, Murrett, deputy director of the Syracuse University Institute for Security Policy and Law, said that a victory for the U.S. at this stage would be to reopen the Strait of Hormuz at scale and initiate significant talks about Iran's nuclear program, ending backing for Tehran's proxies and no more attacks by Iran on U.S. Gulf allies. "The key issue relative to this is the level of pain tolerance that the Iranian leadership and the different segments the Iranian leadership have, and so far, it looks like it's pretty high." Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Frances Mao and James Debens

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  • Brendan Cole; Thomas J C MartynBy Brendan Cole; Thomas J C Martyn

    A 13th consecutive night of U.S. bombing followed a warning by Donald Trump of a "massive attack" against Iran, adding to questions over what constitutes victory for the U.S. and how it can be achieved. Republican Representative Michael McCaul told Fox News the U.S. military "was

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Speaking to reporters at the Oval Office, Trump defended the months-long US military campaign against the Islamic Republic, saying its primary objective was to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. "We're in five months now. And you know what we did in five months?

They're not going to have a nuclear weapon; that's what we did," Trump said. Also read: Trump calls Iran conflict 'small potatoes' and defends Vance's position that it's not a 'war' "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon because if they did, you probably wouldn't be standing here very long," he added.

Trump then warned that Pickaxe Mountain could be targeted if the US detects activity there. "We may hit Pickaxe very soon because if there was anything going on with Pickaxe," Trump said, adding that US intelligence was closely monitoring activity at the site.

"We know everybody that's moving at Pickaxe; we know everybody that's moving everywhere all over Iran. And if anything goes bad, we hit them; we hit them hard," Trump said. Pickaxe Mountain is located near Iran's heavily damaged Natanz uranium-enrichment facility and is described as a heavily fortified underground complex containing two deeply buried tunnel systems.

The Wall Street Journal had earlier reported that Israeli intelligence believes Iran has relocated thousands of centrifuges to the deeply buried facility. The underground construction of the site is believed to make it substantially more resistant to conventional aerial bombardment, making any potential US decision to strike it a significant escalation in the campaign against Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

Trump also argued that US military intervention had prevented a wider regional conflict, saying that without American action, Israel and the broader Middle East would have faced a potentially more serious threat. "If we didn't go in there, you wouldn't have Israel right now, you wouldn't have the Middle East, and they probably would go at European cities and our cities next," Trump said.

"But we stopped them from having a nuclear weapon in five months," he added. The remarks came days after the US Central Command said American forces had completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets. According to CENTCOM, the operations targeted facilities associated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps last week, including air-defence installations, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications sites.

CENTCOM said the strikes followed what it described as recent "attempted attacks" by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against US service members. Trump also spoke about the recent US strikes on Iranian radar systems, claiming American forces had destroyed sophisticated radar installations on two occasions.

"There had been no shooting for days before the hit that we gave them the other night to wipe out the radar they had," Trump said. "They had very sophisticated radar - they brought in radar because we knocked it out once, and now we knocked it out twice.

Now we don't notice any activity," he added. Trump suggested Iran had become reluctant to continue deploying radar systems because of repeated US attacks. "I think they're tired of putting it in and getting blown up," he said. Iran had strongly condemned the latest American strikes, accusing Washington of violating Iranian sovereignty and targeting non-military infrastructure and civilian sites across several provinces.

Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Iranian armed forces had responded with what it described as "crushing defensive strikes" against US military bases in West Asia that Tehran said served as the origin, support and staging points for American attacks.

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Following the resumption of US strikes on Iranian targets in early September, President Trump characterized the six-month-old confrontation as "small potatoes," noting that 18 US service members have been killed since operations began in February. While Trump asserted that US forces have significantly secured the Strait of Hormuz and that current attacks are intermittent, Central Command reported recent strikes on Iranian air-defense and maritime assets.

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