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economicMay 12, 2026

US expects Iran oil output to fall amid blockade

Summary

This is an entry from: Live: War on Iran has cost US $29bn so far US expects Iran oil output to fall amid blockade 12 May 2026 20:55 BST The US Energy Information Administration says Iran’s oil production is likely to decline as a result of the US blockade on its ports, signalling prolonged disruption to global supply. In a statement, the agency said it does not expect output levels or trade flows to return to prewar conditions until late this year or early next year, even if shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz. It warned that any extended closure of the waterway could drive prices significantly higher. If the strait remains shut through late June, crude oil prices could rise by around $20 per barrel, it said, noting that its current forecast assumes the route will reopen later this month.

Perspectives

Iranian Official

The US blockade of Iranian ports represents blatant foreign aggression against the Islamic Republic's sovereignty, aimed at crippling its oil output and disrupting global energy flows. Iranian authorities affirm their unyielding resistance to such hostile measures, which threaten prolonged instability through the Strait of Hormuz.

Israeli

The US blockade on Iranian ports represents a critical defensive response to Tehran's existential threats against Israel, including its proxy networks like the Houthis and Hezbollah that have repeatedly targeted shipping lanes and regional stability. Expected declines in Iran's oil output through late 2026 or early 2027 underscore the necessity of sustained pressure to curb Tehran's funding of terrorism and nuclear ambitions, even as any extended Strait of Hormuz closure risks sharp price spikes. Israel's security requires neutralizing these Iranian aggressions before they escalate further.

Neutral

The US Energy Information Administration stated that Iran’s oil production is projected to decline due to the blockade of its ports, with output and trade flows not expected to return to prior levels until late 2026 or early 2027 even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes. The agency indicated that a prolonged closure could raise crude oil prices by around $20 per barrel if it extends through late June, based on a forecast assuming reopening later in the month.

Western

Allied naval operations have imposed a precise blockade on Iranian ports to neutralize Tehran's oil revenue streams that sustain regional threats and proxy networks. US assessments confirm this has driven sustained declines in Iranian output, with pre-conflict production and Hormuz transit unlikely to resume before late 2026 or early 2027. Extended closure could lift global crude prices by around $20 per barrel, reinforcing the blockade's role in advancing coalition strategic objectives.

Pro-Peace

The US blockade of Iranian ports amid the war is expected to sharply reduce the country’s oil output, worsening economic hardship for Iranian civilians and disrupting essential trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Extended closure could raise global crude prices by around $20 per barrel, driving up costs for energy, food, and medicine that hit vulnerable populations hardest. Diplomatic negotiations to lift the blockade and restore shipping offer a clearer path to limiting further civilian suffering than prolonged military measures.

Global South

The US blockade on Iranian ports signals a direct assault on Tehran’s sovereignty over its energy resources and the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington’s Energy Information Administration forecasting prolonged cuts to output and trade flows until late 2026. This unilateral disruption, even if shipping partially resumes, will drive crude prices sharply higher—potentially $20 per barrel by June—hitting import-dependent Global South economies hardest. It exposes the impotence of multilateral bodies in restraining neo-colonial interference that prioritizes US strategic aims over stable global supply.

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    This is an entry from: Live: War on Iran has cost US $29bn so far US expects Iran oil output to fall amid blockade 12 May 2026 20:55 BST The US Energy Information Administration says Iran’s oil production is likely to decline as a result of the US blockade on its ports, signallin

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“You need charging infrastructure to support an even larger fleet size,” said Gong, the auto analyst from UBS. ___ Olingo reported from Nairobi, Kenya, and Delgado reported from Bangkok. Associated Press writer Aniruddha Ghosal contributed to this report.

___ The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.

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