ردیاب بحران ایران-خلیج فارس ۲۰۲۶
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strikeJun 17, 2026

US-Iran deal should see oil and LNG begin to flow again… slowly

Summary

US President Donald Trump hailed the deal ending the US-Israel war with Iran with a triumphant message: “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” he wrote on his online social media platform. But how realistic is a swift resumption of ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz? Oil traders are hopeful. The benchmark price for Brent crude oil has fallen below US$80 a barrel to US$78.96 (A$111.82) for the first time since early March. This signals a belief that Trump’s Iran deal is going to stick, despite the president claiming a peace deal about 40 times The US Navy has said its blockade will remain in place until the agreement is signed on June 19. Even so, it could take at least six months before oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are back to pre-conflict levels, and much longer for liquefied natural gas (LNG), due to Iran’s extensive damage to Qatar’s LNG facilities. Shippers are cautious A quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and 19% of refined petroleum products are carried through the Strait of Hormuz. It also carries about one-fifth of the world’s LNG and a significant share of the global seaborne chemical trade, particularly fertilisers. The conditions of the reopening are ambiguous. There is no published text of the draft agreement, but Iran’s Mehr state news reported there would be a reopening of the strait within 30 days under “Iranian arrangements”. However, there should be some near-term supply boost. About 60 tankers loaded with crude oil that have been trapped in the Persian Gulf since the conflict began in February may be able to start moving oil to markets. Some of these ships are large enough to carry 2 million barrels of oil (roughly two days of Australian oil consumption. But it will take longer for the significant number of ships waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz to enter the Gulf and be loaded, based on maritime traffic tracking data. Is the strait safe? Since Sunday’s announcement, there has been little change to traffic through the strait. And shippers have given a cautious reaction to the draft agreement. Little wonder – 38 vessels have been hit during the conflict: 24 by Iran, four by the US and the rest unconfirmed. According to reports, it could take also months to clear the strait of mines laid by Iran. There are mixed messages coming from Iran and the US, with Tehran saying it will charge a fee for services, while Trump said the strait will be toll-free. This apparent difference has yet to be explained. Much damage is yet to be fixed The war caused significant damage to energy infrastructure in the region. More than 80 facilities were attacked during the conflict. The recovery will be gradual as damage has affected oil fields, refineries and pipelines across the Persian Gulf, IEA executive chairman Fatih Birol said. This damage includes: United Arab Emirates Last month, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it would take until 2027 before full oil flows will resume, even with an immediate end to the conflict. The UAE is the third-largest oil exporter shipping through the strait behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Iran Iranian oil producers should welcome the agreement, which is expected to include a US waiver on oil sanctions that will allow Tehran to sell oil to more customers. However, some of Iran’s energy infrastructure was damaged when Israel struck the South Pars gas field and infrastructure at the nearby Asaluyeh processing hub. Iran said it has restarted production at three offshore platforms in the South Pars gas field, but did not indicate how long it would take to repair the damaged infrastructure. Qatar A full recovery of the region’s LNG exports could take up to five years following an Iranian attack on the largest LNG processing facility, Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas complex. Before the war, this facility was producing 77 million tonnes of LNG – almost 19% of global output last year. QatarEnergy said repairs will see 12.8 million tonnes offline for between three and five years. Australia has weathered the storm In the early weeks of the war, the IEA warned the Iran conflict was the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. But despite this, Australia has weathered the storm in reasonable shape. The country has been importing record volumes of diesel, boosting stocks of the fuel vital to trucking mining and farming. Diesel accounts for more than half of Australia’s daily oil consumption. As a result, Australia has managed to remain at level 2 of the National Fuel Security Plan, meaning there were no mandatory fuel restrictions. If it eventuates, a permanent peace deal will no doubt be welcomed by all energy users. However, if the deal does not hold and the strait is once again forced to close, prices could rebound higher and drivers will be once again be concerned about future shortages.

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  • Kevin MorrisonBy Kevin Morrison

    US President Donald Trump hailed the deal ending the US-Israel war with Iran with a triumphant message: “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” he wrote on his online social media platform. But how realistic is a swift resumption of ship movement through the S

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
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A tanker identified as the Kaifan was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a July 21 report from UK Maritime Trade Operations. No ships were observed transiting the strait that day. Attribution of the strike and links to prior incidents have not been confirmed by the vessel’s owner.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
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Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.

Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
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Opening summary: Iran claims attacks on strait of Hormuz ships amid fresh US strikes Welcome to our live coverage of the latest developments in the Middle East crisis. Iran attacked a tanker in the strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced they were imposing an immediate maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea after the two sides traded fire last week for the first time in years.

A Houthi official said the Bab al-Mandeb strait – at the southern end of the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s trade usually passes – would be closed to the Saudis in response to the kingdom’s “unjust blockade on Yemenis for over 10 years”.

Saudi Arabia said it would take “all necessary measures to protect its vessels in accordance with international law”. A 10 consecutive night of US airstrikes has not compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies.

But even as Iran’s president said the country had returned “full-scale war”, the Iranian interior minister travelled to Pakistan – a key mediator in the conflict – for talks. In key developments: The latest US strikes came hours after Donald Trump said Iran would pay “many times over” for killing US soldiers after multiple service members were killed in action over the weekend.

A tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the Hormuz strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack as well as two other attacks on ships in the waterway on Monday.

The US military’s Central Command said its latest airstrikes were to “degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the strait and included hitting military command centres and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian media reported strikes in parts of the country including Bandar Abbas, Tabriz and Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational civilian nuclear power.

Iran’s launched attacks in response against Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, which all host US forces. Oil prices softened after hitting their highest levels in more than a month in the previous session. Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $88.87 a barrel by 0052 GMT on Tuesday while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was steady at $82.

47 a barrel. Democrats have seized on the deaths of three US troops killed in Iranian strikes to urge Trump to urgently reverse his resumption of the war with Iran amid widespread anxiety over climbing casualties. The Lebanese army began taking charge of security in three southern villages, the US said, as a deal to secure an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah faced its first test on the ground.