ردیاب بحران ایران-خلیج فارس ۲۰۲۶
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strikeMay 5, 2026

US-Iran truce teeters on meltdown as stalemate takes toll on each side

Summary

The month-old ceasefire between Iran and the US appeared to be in new peril on Tuesday with a fresh barrage of Iranian missiles reported to have targeted the United Arab Emirates as US naval forces pressed ahead with efforts to reopen the strait of Hormuz. The Iranian strike on the UAE was the second in 48 hours, and came shortly after the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, insisted the shaky truce which has paused the war in the Middle East was intact, despite the new increase in violence. On Monday, the US military said it had destroyed six Iranian small boats, as well as cruise missiles and drones, after Donald Trump sent warships to “guide” stranded tankers through the strait in a campaign he called “Project Freedom”. Hegseth told a press conference on Tuesday the operation to encourage commercial ships to transit the strait was temporary and the truce was not over. “We’re not looking for a fight … Right now the ceasefire certainly holds, but we’re going to be watching very, very closely,” he said. There was no immediate reaction from Iran, though earlier on Tuesday its parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, issued a defiant statement accusing the US of breaching the ceasefire. “We know well that the continuation of the current situation is unbearable for the United States, while we have not even begun yet,” Ghalibaf, who is considered one of the most influential senior officials in Tehran, said in a social media post. The strait of Hormuz carries a fifth of the world’s oil and liquid gas supplies in normal times but has been virtually shut since the US and Israel began attacks on Iran on 28 February, triggering massive economic disruption around the world. More than 800 ships and roughly 20,000 crew members remain stranded west of the narrow waterway. Iran has threatened to deploy mines, drones, missiles and fast-attack craft, making passage through the strait too risky for commercial shipping. The US has countered by blockading Iranian ports. The war, which began with an Israeli strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s then supreme leader, now appears to have reached a stalemate. Iran is suffering massive economic losses which may escalate dramatically if it begins to run out of storage capacity for its oil, but Trump is under pressure domestically and internationally as fuel prices spike in the US and across the rest of the world. Leaders in Washington and Tehran appear to believe they are close to victory and are unwilling to make significant concessions to allow an on-off negotiation process mediated by Pakistan to make progress. There are contesting claims from Iran and the US over events in the strait on Monday, when several merchant ships in the Gulf reported explosions or fires, and the important oil port at Fujairah in the UAE was hit by Iranian missiles. In Washington, Hegseth told reportersthe US had successfully secured a path through the strait and that hundreds of commercial ships were lining up to pass through. However, only two vessels, both of them US-flagged merchant ships, are confirmed to have crossed through the waterway so far. Iran denied that any crossings had taken place and claimed that the US had targeted civilian and cargo vessels on Monday, killing five people. Trump has minimised recent violence in the strait. Speaking on Tuesday during an Oval Office event on physical fitness among American children, Trump claimed that Iran “wants to make a deal”. He said: “We’re in a little skirmish, military [sic]. I call it a skirmish, because Iran has no chance. They never did. They know it. “What I don’t like about Iran is they’ll talk to me with such great respect and then they’ll go on television. They’ll say, we did not speak to the president.” US and Iranian officials held one round of face-to-face peace talks in Islamabad last month, but efforts to arrange further meetings have been abortive. Trump has repeatedly cited Iran’s nuclear programme as a justification for the war and has insisted Iran must surrender its enriched uranium stockpiles to prevent it producing a nuclear weapon – an ambition Tehran denies. Iran presented a 14-point peace proposal to the US via Pakistan on Friday, with a reported focus on the lifting of the blockades and a new mechanism for managing the strait. Iranian press reports portrayed this as a comprehensive peace plan to be implemented within 30 days, rather than just a ceasefire. Iranian state media said on Sunday that the US had conveyed its response to the proposal via Pakistan, and Iran was reviewing it. Neither side gave details. A senior Pakistani official involved in the talks told Reuters that “backdoor diplomacy” was continuing. “We have put in a lot of efforts, actually both the sides have narrowed gaps on a majority of the issues,” the source said. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said peace talks were progressing with Pakistan’s mediation, and warned the US and the UAE against being drawn into a “quagmire”. Iran’s state television said military officials had confirmed they attacked the UAE on Monday in response to the “US military’s adventurism”, while Iranian authorities released a map of what they said was an expanded maritime area now under Iranian control, stretching beyond the strait of Hormuz to include sections of the UAE coastline. The Iranian map included Fujairah and another Emirati port, Khor Fakkan, both on the Gulf of Oman which the UAE has relied on since the start of the conflict to bypass the blocked strait. The stalemate has cast a shadow over Trump’s delayed trip to China, planned for 14 May. China is Iran’s biggest customer, buying 80% of its oil before the war, accounting for 13% of Chinese oil imports. Rising petrol prices and a slowing global economy also pose a political threat to Trump as the US approaches congressional elections in November. A Democratic win in one or both chambers would weaken his presidency. Trump has so far shrugged off domestic concerns with some reports suggesting he is more interested in securing what he sees as his historic legacy than any immediate political concerns.

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  • Jason BurkeBy Jason Burke

    The month-old ceasefire between Iran and the US appeared to be in new peril on Tuesday with a fresh barrage of Iranian missiles reported to have targeted the United Arab Emirates as US naval forces pressed ahead with efforts to reopen the strait of Hormuz. The Iranian strike on t

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Another ship hit in Hormuz as Houthis add to regional risks A tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah, UK Maritime Trade Operations says on Tuesday - Hormuz was deserted on Jul 21, with no ships observed transiting, data shows.

PHOTO: REUTERS [SINGAPORE] Another tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as renewed hostilities empty the waterway, while a threat by Houthi rebels to blockade Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea heightened regional maritime risks. The Kaifan, an oil products tanker owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker, was the vessel attacked in the strait, according to security consultancy EOS Risk Group.

The ship was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah, UK Maritime Trade Operations said earlier on Tuesday (Jul 21), without naming the tanker. Kuwait Oil Tanker did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment, and ship tracking data shows Kaifan last signalled its location more than a month ago near Sohar, Oman.

The attack on the Kuwaiti tanker follows strikes in recent days on vessels owned by Dynacom Tankers Management. Hormuz was deserted on Tuesday, with no ships observed transiting, data shows. Iran’s recent spate of attacks has focused on oil tankers shuttling through the strait along the Omani coast, often with their transponders turned off.

Earlier strikes have affected major operators such as South Korea’s Sinokor Group and Greece’s Dynacom, which have been instrumental in sustaining crude flows during much of the war with tankers sailing through Hormuz dark. In the week ended Jul 19, Hormuz crossings averaged seven tankers each day, compared with 16 per day a week earlier, said Rahul Kapoor, global head of shipping analytics and research for S&P Global Energy.

“Ship operators remain increasingly cautious, with risk tolerances continuing to be tested,” he said. An empty Sinokor supertanker, Plata Singapore, that was sailing towards the Gulf of Oman with the aim of reaching Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf, deviated from its path on Sunday, according to ship tracking data.

The vessel is currently in the Arabian Sea. The South Korean company did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. The threat by Iran-backed Houthi militants to blockade Saudi Arabia’s maritime traffic has added another element of risk.

Shipowners with vessels seeking to transit the Red Sea were advised to review their affiliations with the kingdom, with at least one supertanker in nearby waters switching its broadcast to say that it belongs to the Indian government. The India-flagged supertanker, Desh Viraat, which is half-filled with crude from Fujairah, began sailing southwest earlier this week towards Bab el Mandeb in the Gulf of Aden, signalling it had armed guards onboard.

Soon after the Houthi threat on Monday, it switched that signal to “Govt. of India Await”, making clear that it has links to New Delhi. Desh Viraat’s owner, the Shipping Corporation of India, did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

“Companies maintaining regular Saudi trade should consider their exposure elevated, particularly for vessels calling at Red Sea ports,” maritime risk company Marisks said in a note to clients late on Monday that was seen by Bloomberg News. Even though it remains to be seen whether the Houthis will carry through with their threat, “for shipowners, risks have heightened”, said Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage.

“If you have an alternate voyage to take, then you will take that and avoid those in the region.” BLOOMBERG Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox.

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strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
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Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.

Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
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Opening summary: Iran claims attacks on strait of Hormuz ships amid fresh US strikes Welcome to our live coverage of the latest developments in the Middle East crisis. Iran attacked a tanker in the strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced they were imposing an immediate maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea after the two sides traded fire last week for the first time in years.

A Houthi official said the Bab al-Mandeb strait – at the southern end of the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s trade usually passes – would be closed to the Saudis in response to the kingdom’s “unjust blockade on Yemenis for over 10 years”.

Saudi Arabia said it would take “all necessary measures to protect its vessels in accordance with international law”. A 10 consecutive night of US airstrikes has not compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies.

But even as Iran’s president said the country had returned “full-scale war”, the Iranian interior minister travelled to Pakistan – a key mediator in the conflict – for talks. In key developments: The latest US strikes came hours after Donald Trump said Iran would pay “many times over” for killing US soldiers after multiple service members were killed in action over the weekend.

A tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the Hormuz strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack as well as two other attacks on ships in the waterway on Monday.

The US military’s Central Command said its latest airstrikes were to “degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the strait and included hitting military command centres and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian media reported strikes in parts of the country including Bandar Abbas, Tabriz and Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational civilian nuclear power.

Iran’s launched attacks in response against Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, which all host US forces. Oil prices softened after hitting their highest levels in more than a month in the previous session. Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $88.87 a barrel by 0052 GMT on Tuesday while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was steady at $82.

47 a barrel. Democrats have seized on the deaths of three US troops killed in Iranian strikes to urge Trump to urgently reverse his resumption of the war with Iran amid widespread anxiety over climbing casualties. The Lebanese army began taking charge of security in three southern villages, the US said, as a deal to secure an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah faced its first test on the ground.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranUN
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US forces struck the tanker Settebello in the Gulf of Oman on June 10, killing three Indian crew members when munitions hit the engine room and adjacent areas. Maritime tracking data indicate the vessel had transported Iranian oil under US sanctions for several years and conducted offshore transfers prior to the strike.

The US military described the action as a precision operation, while reports note the ship was stationary at the time.

Location: Strait of Hormuz