States
Iraq
Border state with both Iran and US forces on its soil; political environment shaped by Iran-aligned militia presence under the Popular Mobilization Forces umbrella.
Role in conflict
Iraq sits geographically and politically between Iran and the US. Iran-aligned militias under the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) umbrella have at various points launched attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. The Iraqi government's official posture is to host both sides without becoming a battlefield for them, but its leverage over the militias is limited.
Objectives
- Prevent Iran-US escalation from playing out on Iraqi soil
- Preserve oil revenue flows
- Reconstruction and stabilisation of post-ISIS areas
Red lines
Foreign strikes on Iraqi territory
Both Iranian and US strikes inside Iraq produce strong domestic political backlash.
Constraints
- Limited central-government authority over PMF factions
- Energy infrastructure exposure