States
United Arab Emirates
Gulf state with the most diversified foreign policy in the region; signatory to the Abraham Accords; significant economic relationship with Iran.
Role in conflict
The UAE balances close security cooperation with the US, normalised relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, and one of the largest non-sanctioned trading relationships with Iran. Dubai is a major commercial channel for Iranian trade, including some sanctions-evading flows. Abu Dhabi's strategic logic is to be too useful to all sides to be targeted by any.
Objectives
- Avoid being a target in Iran-US or Iran-Israel escalation
- Maintain trade channels with Iran while preserving US partnership
- Economic diversification anchored in financial services, logistics, and AI
- Regional de-escalation diplomacy
Red lines
Houthi strikes on UAE territory
The 2022 Abu Dhabi attacks established a low threshold for retaliation.
Constraints
- Small population and indigenous force structure
- Trade relationship with Iran limits how aggressive the public posture can be
Allies
- saudi-arabia
- united-states
- israel
Opponents
- houthis