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strikeApr 10, 2026

Analysis: Will Trump get a worse Iran deal than Obama? Here’s what to know | CNN Politics

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A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here. The contrasts are remarkable. One president chose diplomacy. Barack Obama and a large international coalition negotiated a deal with Iran to shelve its nuclear program for a decade over the objections of an outraged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who came to Congress in 2015 to speak out against the deal and the American president. Another president chose war. Donald Trump, years after tearing Obama’s deal into shreds, and after becoming frustrated with talks for a new nuclear deal, brought Netanyahu into the White House Situation Room, according to a New York Times report. The Israeli prime minister sat across the table from the US president and sold him on a sneak attack against Iran without consulting allies in Europe or the Middle East. Now the US needs a deal with Iran to end the war The war has not gone exactly according to Trump’s plan, however. The US and Israel did achieve their goals of compromising Iran’s military, as well as its naval and missile capabilities. But Iran’s nuclear material is still in the country, albeit apparently buried underground, and the Islamic Republic has seized control over the Strait of Hormuz, discovering a new piece of leverage over the world economy. However the war with Iran ultimately ends — talks will get underway in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday to try to build on a fragile ceasefire — Trump will want to declare that the outcome is better than what his predecessor Obama achieved without going to war. Obama’s nuclear deal is inside Trump’s head Trump rarely talks about Iran without trashing Obama and the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. “Barack Hussein Obama — what he did, where he gave them the Iran nuclear deal, gave them free will toward a nuclear weapon. Basically, he chose Iran over Israel and others that didn’t want him to do it,” Trump said at a March 26 Cabinet meeting. He repeated the sentiment that Obama chose Iran over Israel at an April 6 news conference. “If I didn’t come along and terminate the Obama deal, which was terrible, the Iran nuclear deal was a — a road to a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. “A big one, unlimited.” Trump also likes to talk about the fact that as the deal was finalized, the US dispatched a planeload of cash — $400 million in cash, much of it Swiss francs — to Iran. The money was actually repayment of Iranian funds frozen decades earlier, but it dovetailed with adoption of the nuclear deal and release of Americans in Iranian prison, including the Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian. That planeload of cash — and the billions Iran got in unfrozen assets and from selling oil while the JCPOA was active — could ultimately be dwarfed by tolls Iran may now demand to end the war. These new funds could include tolls charged to ships for passing through the Strait of Hormuz, money from unfrozen assets or revenue from lifting of sanctions. What was in the JCPOA (what Trump calls Obama’s deal)? The JCPOA had a hard-to-remember name and it was a complicated piece of diplomacy. The multifaceted agreement was signed by Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — US, China, Russia, France, the UK — plus Germany and the EU. The general outline of the JCPOA, which had international support but was controversial in the US when it was reached, was that Iran would limit its nuclear ambitions, cap its uranium enrichment and allow international inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect its sites in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions on its oil wealth and unfreezing billions in frozen Iranian assets. Netanyahu was so alarmed about the deal that, in an unprecedented move, he addressed Congress in 2015 in an attempt to spike Obama’s deal on US soil. Trump ultimately did withdraw the US from the deal in 2018 during his first term. While other countries tried to continue with the deal, Iran ultimately violated terms and the deal fell apart, although both the Joe Biden and Trump 2.0 administrations tried to restart negotiations. Trump launched the war on Iran after talks to reach a new nuclear deal fell through, though one foreign diplomat involved with those talks said a breakthrough was “within our reach.” And now, after more than a month of war, Trump is again looking for an Iran deal of his own. A lot has happened in the past decade The JCPOA was from a very different time, according to Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. For starters, the IAEA and the US intelligence community in 2018 agreed that while the JCPOA was in place, Iran did not appear to be seeking nuclear weapons capability, and it was generally abiding by the restrictions in the deal, although it continued to support terror groups and maintained ballistic missile capabilities. Iran increased nuclear program after Trump abandoned JCPOA At the urging of Israel, Trump in his first term reneged on the JCPOA for the US, which he did not believe was good for the country. A year after Trump abandoned the old deal, Iran again began obviously developing its nuclear program in earnest, further enriching uranium and building out nuclear sites. At the same time, it continued to say it would abide by the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and not pursue nuclear weapons. “Looking forward, any new agreement with Iran to constrain its nuclear capacity is going to have to look different from the JCPOA, but there will likely be some similar elements,” Kimball told me earlier this month. Key among the similarities, in his view, will have to be an insistence on IAEA inspectors to verify that Iran is complying with any potential deal. Trump has a maximalist view of demands. Rather than limit uranium enrichment, he wants Iran to abandon it and to hand over its existing stockpiles to the US. But Iran has new leverage Iran has also now found, as a result of the US and Israeli-launched war, that it has power over the world economy by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, which ordinarily carries about a fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies and a third of the world’s urea fertilizer exports. “What this war has done is handed Iran a weapon that is far more usable than nuclear weapons, which is the Strait of Hormuz choking off global supplies,” CNN’s Fareed Zakaria told Anderson Cooper this week. Even before addressing Iran’s nuclear capabilities, any deal to the end the war will need to include reopening the strait, according to retired Gen. David Petraeus, the former CIA director. “That is, I think, the central issue,” he told CNN’s Dana Bash on Thursday. Some Iranian demands will be nonstarters, like withdrawing US forces from military bases in the region or acknowledging Iran’s right to enrich uranium. Others are more negotiable. But the new issue of Strait of Hormuz traffic offers Iran power and potentially a financial lifeline, a sort of Panama Canal where they are charging tolls. “If it’s $2 million per vessel, which is reportedly what some companies have been paying to transit, and you multiply that times 100 or more ships a day, that is a very substantial amount of hard currency to enable Iran to repair the extraordinary damage that has been done (to their military),” Petraeus said. Was a breakthrough at hand before Trump launched the war? Trump attacked Iran in late February because he felt it was not serious in negotiations to reach a new nuclear deal, although that conclusion was contradicted by one of the mediators. Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi appeared on CBS’ “Face the Nation” just before the attacks commenced and said Iran had agreed to major concessions. The day before Trump kicked off the war, Al Busaidi said Iran had agreed to giving up its stockpiles of enriched uranium by irreversibly downgrading their enrichment below current levels, which are close to what would be needed for a nuclear weapon. “There would be zero accumulation, zero stockpiling, and full verification. That is also equally important achievement, I think,” Al Busaidi said. Trump’s team saw Iranian intransigence Trump’s chief negotiator, special envoy Steve Witkoff, had a very different view of those pre-war talks, which he shared at the March 26 Cabinet meeting. Iran, Witkoff said, believes it has “the inalienable right to enrich.” Witkoff also said the Iranians made clear “they would not give up diplomatically what we could not win militarily.” The US may not have understood what was on the table Kimball said Witkoff and his negotiating partner, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, may not have understood the significance of the concessions Iran was willing to make. “Witkoff was too — I’m going to say a strong word: incompetent — and technically ill-informed to understand the significance of what was on the table,” Kimball said. Now Witkoff and Kushner are joining Vice President JD Vance for new talks in Islamabad. So the US must still ultimately negotiate with whatever leaders it can find in Iran. The regime has maintained that, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran is within its legal ability to enrich uranium for an energy program. In exchange for putting that aside, the regime is likely, just as in the Obama era, to insist on the lifting of sanctions on Iran’s oil. But now Iran will also want to formalize its control of the Strait of Hormuz, which means the regime could have more power than it did before.

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  • Zachary B WolfBy Zachary B Wolf

    A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here. The contrasts are remarkable. One president chose diplomacy. Barack Obama and a large international coalition negotiated a deal with Iran to shelve its nuclear progr

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

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US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran
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U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

m. ET on Monday. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

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Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.