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strikeMay 3, 2026

California braces for uncertainty as last shipment of Persian Gulf oil arrives in Long Beach

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- - Click here to listen to this article - Share via The last California-bound oil tanker to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since war erupted is at the Port of Long Beach offloading its valuable cargo — 2 million barrels of crude destined to be transformed into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. The New Corolla loaded up in Iraq on Feb. 24 — just days before U.S. and Israeli forces launched attacks on Iran, plunging the region into turmoil and sparking a double blockade of commercial shipping. In two weeks, the Hong Kong-flagged tanker will have fully unloaded at the Marathon Petroleum terminal and departed again for distant waters. After that, California must figure out how to replace some 200,000 barrels of oil a day that will no longer be arriving from the Persian Gulf. California’s own supply of crude oil has been declining since the 1980s, due to aging fields and a geology that makes drilling particularly costly. The state’s gasoline refining capacity is also falling off, increasing reliance on imports and highlighting California’s status as an isolated energy island without gas pipelines to bring in supply from other states. Now, with the end of the Middle East conflict nowhere in sight and the average cost of California gasoline topping $6 per gallon, some lawmakers are warning of potential oil and gas shortages. As Los Angeles homeowners proceed with rebuilding from the 2025 fires, a new trend is emerging across the Palisades and Eaton burn areas. Emergency orders allow “like-for-like” replacements; some residents are moving toward all-electric home rebuilds. So far during the Iran war, oil deliveries to California have remained relatively steady. The state imports about 75% of its oil from foreign countries and Alaska. Last year it brought in a mix from Brazil, Iraq, Guyana, Canada, Ecuador, Argentina and Saudi Arabia as its top international suppliers, with about 30% coming from the Middle East. In March and April, that mix didn’t change much, with California receiving about 21% and 14% of its foreign oil from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, respectively, according to the data analytics firm Kpler. Shipments that left before Iran blocked off the Strait of Hormuz in late February have continued to arrive on a one-to-two-month lag time, about the same time it takes for a tanker to make the voyage. But if the strait remains closed through May, “all bets are off,” said Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policymaking. “Refineries have to source from elsewhere, and they are scrambling to find where to get that oil,” said Susan Bell, a senior vice president at the consulting firm Rystad Energy. “They don’t have very many options.” It’s too early to say how California refineries — the state’s main crude oil importers — plan to backfill the loss of Persian Gulf oil. Refiners typically plan their sourcing about two months ahead, said Bell. But Chevron would not share its supply plans, describing them as “material to our business.” And the state’s other top refiners did not reply to requests for comment. Bell said refiners are probably looking to import or have already made plans to import more oil from the countries where they already sourced crude, like Ecuador and the west coast of Canada, where freight fees are lower because of the shorter travel distance. “They would definitely look to Brazil for the medium grades,” said Bell, noting that the oil being lost is the heavy- and medium-grade crude preferred by most California refineries. “Guyana might be a little bit too light for them to want to ramp up, but you know, a liquid barrel is a liquid barrel, so maybe they won’t be too fussy about the quality.” Cummings said it’s possible California refiners can outbid other countries competing over the same barrels for a period of time, but there’s only so much to go around. “We’re looking at 800 million to a billion barrels cumulative loss of production,” said Cummings. “That’s just incredibly tight.” Already, China, Thailand, South Korea, Pakistan and other countries have scaled back or banned gasoline exports to protect domestic supply in the face of oil shortages and rising costs that make it too expensive to produce. PG&E is overcharging Californians to keep the last nuclear power plant open, report alleges Eliminating fees for Diablo Canyon from 2027 to 2030 could save utility customers an estimated $1.84 billion. Some California lawmakers have been sounding the alarm about potential supply shortages of both oil and gas in the months ahead. The California Energy Commission said it is “working closely with refiners” and is “aware they are identifying and using alternate routes and sources of crude.” Spokesperson Nikki Woodard said the agency is confident in the state’s oil supply outlook, which includes refinery stocks and additional storage, for the next six weeks. “We went into this with pretty healthy inventories, but those are being drawn down, and that’s when it gets really precarious,” said Cummings. Data about shipments already traveling on the water can give a preview for what’s en route. Besides the New Corolla, one tanker that left Iraq a month before the war began has been anchored off Long Beach since March, but nothing else from the region is coming. Saudi Arabia has been able to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz with shipments from the Red Sea, but none of those barrels are headed to the West Coast. Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, said Argentina, Ecuador and Brazil already have some crude on the way, but its too early to see any scaling up of volumes to match those being lost. Unlike fuel coming from Asia or the Middle East, cargoes from Canada or Latin America “could still load now and discharge next week,” said Smith. California also imports gasoline in amounts that have been sharply increasing since the Valero Benecia refinery went idle in February and the Phillips 66 Wilmington refinery went offline in December. The PBF Martinez refinery, taken out by a fire in February 2025, has yet to come back online. While in 2024 California imported about 10% of its gasoline, it now imports 20%. The top California gasoline suppliers by far are South Korea, the Bahamas and India. As with oil, the shipments have continued to arrive through April, but that’s set to change. South Korea has virtually suspended jet fuel shipments and cut back exports of gasoline and diesel. India has raised export duties on finished fuel products and is also sending out less. “We’re seeing very little on the water heading to the West Coast,” said Smith. The Bahamas, where gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast gets rerouted, might pick up some of the slack, but how much remains to be seen. “There’s just a big question mark about where gasoline is going to be pulling in from next,” said Smith. The Energy Commission said the state is forecasting liquid gasoline supplies through May. “We expect to see increased imports in June as the market adapts to the new supply reality resulting from the conflict in Iran,” said Woodard. Jamie Lewis, an oil analyst with Wood Mackenzie, a global research and consulting firm, said she “would expect to see prices increase sharply before we would see any shortages in California.” Kate Gordon, who runs the economic policy nonprofit California Forward and was previously a climate advisor to the Biden and Newsom administrations, said the only way for California to reduce it’s exposure to global oil price volatility is through strategies like investing in electric vehicles and infrastructure. “Even in Texas, where they obviously have a huge amount of drilling and a lot of supply, prices are going up because the sellers are selling to whoever is paying the most during a moment of restriction, and everyone’s facing restrictions all over the place,” said Gordon. “The only way to be less dependent on this global system is to reduce oil demand.”

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  • Blanca BegertBy Blanca Begert

    - - Click here to listen to this article - Share via The last California-bound oil tanker to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since war erupted is at the Port of Long Beach offloading its valuable cargo — 2 million barrels of crude destined to be transformed into gasoline, jet f

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strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranRussiaChina
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US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
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U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

m. ET on Monday. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

strikeUnverifiedIsraelIranProxy
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Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.