מעקב משבר איראן-המפרץ 2026
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strikeMay 12, 2026

Crude Oil Skyrockets As Prospects Of U.S.-Iran Peace Agreement Fade

Summary

(RTTNews) - Extending the gains from yesterday, crude oil prices have catapulted further on Tuesday amid concerns of re-escalation in the Middle East conflict following the U.S. rejection of Iran's peace proposal and reports of U.S. plans to restart the war. WTI Crude Oil for June month delivery was last seen trading up by $4.11 (or 4.03%) at $102.10 per barrel. Soon after the U.S.-Israel's war against Iran broke out on February 28, Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz. After announcing a ceasefire on all attacks on Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade on ships entering or exiting Iranian ports. Last week, the U.S. offered a 14-point peace plan for Iran to end the hostilities to which Iran sent its response through Pakistan. On Sunday, Trump called Iran's reply "totally unacceptable." while Iran claimed the U.S. was making "excessive demands." Later, Trump stated that he did not even read Iran's document fully and added that he felt the ceasefire is now on "life support" with hardly "1% chance of living". Iran said the U.S. must abandon its "one-sided approach" and consider accepting Iran's legitimate demands. Citing sources close to Trump, CNN reported that he is frustrated with the way Iran's regime is dealing with the dialogue process and added that he is seriously considering restarting major combat operations against Iran. The strong exchange of rhetoric between both nations and both sides rejecting each other's negotiation proposals have increased concerns of war. With the escalation apparently set to deepen, crude oil prices resurged from yesterday's price, driving inflationary concerns higher. However, investors have not given up their expectations of an end to the hostilities with their attention focused on Trump's visit to China, where he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. China being an ally of Iran and having imported 90% of Iran's oil last year, traders are anticipating positive development on the U.S.-Iran crisis in this meeting. Energy experts have already warned of a rapid depletion in the crude oil inventories if the crisis continues through the end of June. Yesterday, the Chief Executive Officer of Aramco, Amin Nasser cautioned that even if flows resume through the Hormuz strait immediately, oil markets would take a few months to rebalance, and if the flow remains curtailed for a few more weeks, markets would normalize only in 2027. The U.S. has released 53.30 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to energy firms in an effort to stabilize oil prices. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that core consumer prices, rose by 0.40% from the previous month in April, exceeding market expectations of a 0.30% increase. This jump indicates the spread of higher energy prices from the gulf war to core areas of the consumer basket. The annual core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) rose to 2.80% in April from 2.60% in the previous month. Consumer prices increased by 0.60% month-over-month in April, in line with market expectations, following a 0.90% surge in March. Due to the ongoing war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices jumped 3.80% in April, after a 10.90% spike in the previous month. The annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.80% in April, the highest since May 2023. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Perspectives

Iranian Official

The Islamic Republic of Iran remains steadfast in defending its sovereignty against U.S. and Israeli aggression, which began with their unprovoked war on February 28 and continued through a naval blockade despite a declared ceasefire. Rejecting Iran's legitimate response to the one-sided U.S. peace plan, Washington has exposed its warmongering intent by threatening to restart hostilities. Iran calls on the U.S. to abandon its excessive demands and respect Iran's right to resist foreign interference.

Israeli

The spike in oil prices underscores the existential threats posed by Iran's regime, which has weaponized the Strait of Hormuz and mobilized its proxy networks to strangle Israel's economy and security. Following Tehran's rejection of peace terms and the collapse of the ceasefire, defensive necessities like naval blockades and renewed operations are required to neutralize Iran's aggression and protect the Jewish state's survival. US-Israel coordination remains critical against this axis of hostility.

Neutral

WTI crude oil futures for June delivery rose $4.11 to $102.10 per barrel. The increase followed U.S. rejection of Iran’s response to a 14-point peace proposal and a CNN report, citing unnamed sources, that the U.S. administration was considering renewed military action. Earlier events referenced in market commentary include Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz after February 28, a subsequent U.S. naval blockade, and statements from both governments rejecting each other’s negotiation positions.

Western

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have driven WTI crude prices sharply higher after the U.S. rejected Iran's unacceptable counterproposal to a 14-point peace plan and signaled readiness to resume precision operations against Iranian forces. With Iran having closed the Strait of Hormuz and rebuffed efforts to restore freedom of navigation, Washington is prioritizing the neutralization of this critical threat to global energy flows and maritime security. President Trump has indicated the fragile ceasefire now stands on life support, underscoring the need for decisive action to enforce strategic objectives.

Pro-Peace

The U.S. rejection of Iran's peace proposal and threats to resume combat operations risk plunging the region back into devastating warfare, with civilians bearing the brunt through displacement, shortages, and loss of life amid blockades and disrupted trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Such escalation exacts a profound humanitarian toll, compounding suffering for ordinary families already strained by prior hostilities. Renewed diplomatic engagement, rather than military posturing, offers the only viable path to de-escalation and lasting peace.

Global South

The US dismissal of Iran's response to its 14-point plan, coupled with threats to restart combat operations and a naval blockade, reflects classic neo-colonial pressure on a sovereign state to accept externally dictated terms over its own security and resource control. Iran's shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and insistence on abandoning one-sided demands underscore resistance to Western dominance of critical energy routes that affect Global South economies. Weak multilateral institutions have failed to curb such escalations, leaving oil prices surging and exposing the limits of diplomacy under great-power coercion.

Actors involved

IsraelIranChina

Sources

  • RTTNewsBy RTTNews

    (RTTNews) - Extending the gains from yesterday, crude oil prices have catapulted further on Tuesday amid concerns of re-escalation in the Middle East conflict following the U.S. rejection of Iran's peace proposal and reports of U.S. plans to restart the war. WTI Crude Oil for Jun

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