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strikeJun 19, 2026

Hormuz Reopens, Yet Businesses Warn Oil Crisis Isn't Over - United States Oil Fund (ARCA:USO)

Summary

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz began recovering following a U.S.-Iran agreement aimed at preserving the ceasefire and restoring navigation through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Kpler data logged 25 verified crossings through the Strait on June 18, the highest since April, split evenly in both directions. No physical attacks have been reported since May 10. On Wednesday, the United States and Iran signed an interim memorandum of understanding electronically that lifts the US blockade and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, with a waiver for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports that could release more than 50 million barrels of crude sitting on the water. Goldman Sachs Sees Hormuz Flows Recovering By July Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe the reopening could trigger a relatively swift normalization of oil exports from the Persian Gulf. “We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre-war levels by end of July and Persian Gulf crude production recover by October,” Goldman’s Yulia Zhetskova Grigsby said in a note this week. The bank estimates that Gulf exports can return to normal even if visible Hormuz traffic only recovers to roughly 70% of pre-war levels, thanks to alternative routes and logistics adjustments developed during the conflict. Goldman estimates a 12.7-million-barrel-per-day increase in Hormuz flows would be enough to restore exports to pre-war levels. The bank also sees little evidence that tanker availability will constrain the recovery, estimating that vessels positioned within or near the Strait have the capacity to load roughly 861 million barrels. However, Goldman warned that shipowners remain cautious and that risk aversion among shippers could continue limiting traffic during upcoming nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Businesses Aren’t Convinced The Crisis Is Ending While Wall Street is becoming more optimistic, businesses appear far less convinced that the Strait will quickly return to normal. A new Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey led by Jamie Thompson, head of Macro Scenarios, found that more than two-fifths of businesses expect transit through the Strait of Hormuz to remain below pre-war levels not only for the remainder of 2026 but also into 2027. The survey, conducted among 144 businesses between May 28 and June 16, showed companies remain concerned that disruptions could persist despite the U.S.-Iran agreement. Oxford Economics said businesses appear “resigned to a protracted period of disruption” and noted that the share of respondents expecting Hormuz disruptions to last into 2027 has roughly doubled compared with April. The survey also revealed that nearly three-fifths of respondents still view the Middle East as a very significant risk to the global economy over the next two years. Businesses continue to assign roughly a 30% probability to either renewed energy market disruptions or an extended period of constrained shipping through Hormuz. Oil Rebounds From Key Technical Support Crude is trading as if the crisis is all but over, up just 12% from pre-war levels. The companies that burn the oil are budgeting as if it has another eighteen months to run. One of them is wrong. © 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.

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  • Piero CingariBy Piero Cingari

    Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz began recovering following a U.S.-Iran agreement aimed at preserving the ceasefire and restoring navigation through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Kpler data logged 25 verified crossings through the Strait on Jun

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The U.S. and Iran are back to bombing every day in a bid to control the Strait of Hormuz. And neither is backing down, showing the limitations of President Donald Trump’s reliance on escalating airstrikes to bend Tehran to his will. While the Trump administration says it is open to diplomacy, Iran so far has refused to loosen its grip over the crucial oil shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf.

It is raising questions about the strategy for the conflict's next phase. The intensifying attacks have collapsed an interim ceasefire deal, killed more American troops and sent U.S. gasoline prices back up, posing more problems for Republicans hoping to get reelected.

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Lebanon hopes the talks will lead to Israeli troops withdrawing from large swaths of southern Lebanon, and for the Lebanese military to receive support to assert full control in areas where Hezbollah militants had held sway. Lebanon and Israel announced a “framework agreement” on June 26, setting a plan for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon as well as the disarmament of Hezbollah.

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Republicans demanded the material after Hur declined to file charges against the then-president. Civilian infrastructure now targeted by both the US and Iran Both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

Kuwait’s Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy Ministry said Tehran struck desalination and power plants for a fourth straight day on Monday night, causing fires and damage. Some 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water comes from desalination, making the attacks a matter of life and death for the tiny nation.

U.S. strikes have been hitting electrical equipment in Iran as well, and Iranian officials also have said Americans targeted water facilities. US command says its broad strikes are in response to Iran’s attacks on shipping The U.

S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in across six different provinces. Tanker attacks expand, forcing crew to abandon ship Traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd’s List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Iranian official meets mediators in Pakistan as attacks rage An Iranian official began meetings Tuesday with mediators in Pakistan as diplomats sought to salvage the collapsed interim deal between Iran and the United States, even as both countries continued to launch attacks for a 10th day of renewed fighting.

The visit by Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni comes as Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the deal. However, it remains unclear just what new arrangement could be reached to end the fighting.

Momeni met Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, according to two officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations. Momeni later met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Pakistan’s political leadership and Munir, who serves as both the chief of army staff and defense forces, have worked to persuade the United States and Iran back to resume negotiations.

— By Munir Ahmed The limits of intensifying attacks emerge as US and Iran dig in The U.S. and Iran are back to bombing every day in a bid to control the Strait of Hormuz. And neither is backing down, showing the limitations of President Donald Trump’s reliance on escalating airstrikes to bend Tehran to his will.

While the Trump administration says it is open to diplomacy, Iran so far has refused to loosen its grip over the crucial oil shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf. It is raising questions about the strategy for the next phase of the conflict as intensifying attacks have collapsed an interim ceasefire deal, left additional American troops dead and sent U.

S. gasoline prices back up — posing new problems for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Even with glimmers of hope for talks, the sides could be headed back to all-out war, with Trump warning that “every time Iran kills an American Soldier” going forward, “they will pay for that killing many times over.

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The head of the International Energy Agency stated on July 21 that escalation in Middle East hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy infrastructure has heightened supply security concerns, while noting that markets retain cushioning factors including higher exports and alternative routing of Saudi and UAE crude.

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