strikeApr 13, 2026

How a US blockade near the Strait of Hormuz could work and the impact ahead for the global economy

Summary

A blockade of Iranian ports that President Donald Trump said began Monday could further disrupt oil prices, has spurred questions about international law and leaves doubts about whether the pressure tactic will force Tehran to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz. Trump threatened to impose the blockade after talks to further a fragile ceasefire ended without a deal this past weekend. Iran had previously halted nearly all tanker traffic through the key waterway, allowing only some ships perceived as friendly to pass while charging considerable fees. Enforcing the blockade is likely to demand significant resources from the U.S. Navy and could prompt concerns about military force and international law, experts say. Supply chain analysts, meanwhile, stress that the restrictions could undermine the flow of oil, fertilizer, food and other goods to consumers already facing higher prices. How the US could enforce a blockade of Iranian ports Successfully enforcing the blockade will require sustained commitment of U.S. Navy ships and personnel, as well as clear guidance from the Trump administration and the Navy’s legal department, experts say. From a military standpoint, the biggest challenge will be the enormous volume of shipping traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz, where nearly 20% of the world's traded oil normally passes. A considerable number of ships may be needed to enforce the restrictions, according to Sidharth Kaushal, a naval power expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank in London. “A lot depends on the early days of the blockade, how many vessels the Americans can seize, how much they can convince vessels attempting to slip through a cordon that they’re likely to be seized,” Kaushal said. “But in all likelihood, I’d say it will prove difficult for the U.S. to enforce.” The strait’s narrow confines at least will make the geographic area of concern a limited one, said Todd Huntley, director of Georgetown University Law Center’s National Security Law Program. Still, the amount of traffic that goes through “is going to be a challenge,” he said. The U.S. may have to consider whether to allow humanitarian aid to reach Iranian ports, Huntley said, a decision that could determine the blockade’s legality under international law. International rules also require that any nation enforcing a blockade do so impartially, after issuing an advisory to mariners. “How it is carried out will determine whether it is lawful or not,” said Huntley, a retired Navy captain and judge advocate general. “You can’t enact a blockade with the goal of starving the civilian population. Even the DOD law of war manual states that neutral vessels carrying relief supplies should be allowed to pass.” Few merchant vessels are likely to try to evade a blockade, according to Raul Pedrozo, professor of international law at the Naval War College and a retired Navy captain and JAG officer. They won’t want to take their chances against the U.S. Navy, he said. “They see a warship, and they’re going to heave to,” Pedrozo said. Naval blockades aren't a fix-all but can be a tool Blockades historically haven’t been enough on their own but have been used to exert pressure on other countries and their economies during conflicts, experts say. “There are always ways to economize, import, substitute, or just give up on certain things that you can no longer build for want of foreign inputs," Kaushal said. "It can make things a lot harder in a lot of ways, but it doesn’t necessarily achieve decisive outcomes.” A blockade alone can’t sever Iran’s economic ties with trading partners, including China and Russia, or cut off access to the Caspian Sea or Central Asia. The blockade also risks an Iranian response that could reignite the conflict, said Farzin Nadimi, who specializes in Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Iran could deploy naval mines, small fast-attack boats and missiles against shipping in response, further disrupting the global economy. “The U.S. wants this to be a short and sweet operation. I don’t think that it can be,” Nadimi said. Trump said Iran has some “fast attack ships” remaining and warned Tehran that any of them coming “anywhere close” to the U.S. blockade would be destroyed by a “quick and brutal” strike. Iran responded with its own threats on ports in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Oil prices could keep rising With fears of attacks, experts say most ships won't want to take the risk. The waterway could effectively stay shut — and prices, particularly for oil and gasoline, could rise even more. Halting roughly 20% of the world’s flow of oil has already led to cuts from some major producers in the region, because their crude has nowhere to go. “The problem with a two-side blockade is that you know it’s going to take much longer for the strait to open up and for some kind of agreement to come about — and that’s what's going to send these prices further skyrocketing,” said Vidya Mani, a visiting associate professor at Cornell University whose research focuses on supply chains. Analysts warn that the longer the waterway is closed, the worse prices could get. Oil has swung on markets' quick reactions to announcements from Trump and others about the fate of the war, but they remain steep overall, with crude trading Monday above $100 a barrel, up from roughly $70 before the war. Households and businesses are paying the consequences — particularly in Asia, where countries rely more heavily on fuel imports from the Middle East. But oil is a globally traded commodity, and consumers worldwide are feeling a pinch in their wallets. American drivers, for example, have seen gas prices spike to an average of more than $4.12 a gallon — up from $2.98 before the war. Global supply chains also could see further disruptions The blockade also would hurt the transportation of food and fertilizer, said Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University. He said the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and other countries could especially see “dramatic food price increases,” as supplies will have to be flown in. Some 30% of the world's fertilizer also comes through the strait, potentially harming farmers and as a result worsening hunger worldwide. “Now you’re talking about impacting the global harvest,” Penfield said. Between these disruptions and oil shocks, he noted that such chaos and uncertainty “bleeds out throughout the whole world.” Mani said chemicals to make basic supplies like paint and metal, including aluminum, would see additional disruptions. She pointed to price pressures even before the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran — including new tariffs imposed by Trump, supply chain problems from the COVID-19 pandemic and other geopolitical conflicts. “We just have to be prepared for constant higher prices, irrespective of how this blockade turns out,” she said. “Each crisis has a lingering effect on the next one.” ____ AP Business Writer Mae Anderson contributed to this report in New York.

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WYATTE GRANTHAM-PHILIPS, DAVID KLEPPER and JOHN LEICESTER, Associated PressBy WYATTE GRANTHAM-PHILIPS, DAVID KLEPPER and JOHN LEICESTER, Associated Press
A blockade of Iranian ports that President Donald Trump said began Monday could further disrupt oil prices, has spurred questions about international law and leaves doubts about whether the pressure tactic will force Tehran to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz. Trump …

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

Another ship hit in Hormuz as Houthis add to regional risks

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Another ship hit in Hormuz as Houthis add to regional risks A tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah, UK Maritime Trade Operations says on Tuesday - Hormuz was deserted on Jul 21, with no ships observed transiting, data shows.

PHOTO: REUTERS [SINGAPORE] Another tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as renewed hostilities empty the waterway, while a threat by Houthi rebels to blockade Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea heightened regional maritime risks. The Kaifan, an oil products tanker owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker, was the vessel attacked in the strait, according to security consultancy EOS Risk Group.

The ship was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah, UK Maritime Trade Operations said earlier on Tuesday (Jul 21), without naming the tanker. Kuwait Oil Tanker did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment, and ship tracking data shows Kaifan last signalled its location more than a month ago near Sohar, Oman.

The attack on the Kuwaiti tanker follows strikes in recent days on vessels owned by Dynacom Tankers Management. Hormuz was deserted on Tuesday, with no ships observed transiting, data shows. Iran’s recent spate of attacks has focused on oil tankers shuttling through the strait along the Omani coast, often with their transponders turned off.

Earlier strikes have affected major operators such as South Korea’s Sinokor Group and Greece’s Dynacom, which have been instrumental in sustaining crude flows during much of the war with tankers sailing through Hormuz dark. In the week ended Jul 19, Hormuz crossings averaged seven tankers each day, compared with 16 per day a week earlier, said Rahul Kapoor, global head of shipping analytics and research for S&P Global Energy.

“Ship operators remain increasingly cautious, with risk tolerances continuing to be tested,” he said. An empty Sinokor supertanker, Plata Singapore, that was sailing towards the Gulf of Oman with the aim of reaching Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf, deviated from its path on Sunday, according to ship tracking data.

The vessel is currently in the Arabian Sea. The South Korean company did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. The threat by Iran-backed Houthi militants to blockade Saudi Arabia’s maritime traffic has added another element of risk.

Shipowners with vessels seeking to transit the Red Sea were advised to review their affiliations with the kingdom, with at least one supertanker in nearby waters switching its broadcast to say that it belongs to the Indian government. The India-flagged supertanker, Desh Viraat, which is half-filled with crude from Fujairah, began sailing southwest earlier this week towards Bab el Mandeb in the Gulf of Aden, signalling it had armed guards onboard.

Soon after the Houthi threat on Monday, it switched that signal to “Govt. of India Await”, making clear that it has links to New Delhi. Desh Viraat’s owner, the Shipping Corporation of India, did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

“Companies maintaining regular Saudi trade should consider their exposure elevated, particularly for vessels calling at Red Sea ports,” maritime risk company Marisks said in a note to clients late on Monday that was seen by Bloomberg News. Even though it remains to be seen whether the Houthis will carry through with their threat, “for shipowners, risks have heightened”, said Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage.

“If you have an alternate voyage to take, then you will take that and avoid those in the region.” BLOOMBERG Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox.

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The Business Times

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

Oil prices to hit $120 soon? Goldman Sachs makes big prediction as Hormuz concerns loom

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Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.

Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.

Location: Tehran

Veer Sharma

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

Iran claims attacks in strait of Hormuz; Houthis announce blockade of Red Sea shipping route – Middle East crisis live

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Opening summary: Iran claims attacks on strait of Hormuz ships amid fresh US strikes Welcome to our live coverage of the latest developments in the Middle East crisis. Iran attacked a tanker in the strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced they were imposing an immediate maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea after the two sides traded fire last week for the first time in years.

A Houthi official said the Bab al-Mandeb strait – at the southern end of the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s trade usually passes – would be closed to the Saudis in response to the kingdom’s “unjust blockade on Yemenis for over 10 years”.

Saudi Arabia said it would take “all necessary measures to protect its vessels in accordance with international law”. A 10 consecutive night of US airstrikes has not compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies.

But even as Iran’s president said the country had returned “full-scale war”, the Iranian interior minister travelled to Pakistan – a key mediator in the conflict – for talks. In key developments: The latest US strikes came hours after Donald Trump said Iran would pay “many times over” for killing US soldiers after multiple service members were killed in action over the weekend.

A tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the Hormuz strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack as well as two other attacks on ships in the waterway on Monday.

The US military’s Central Command said its latest airstrikes were to “degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the strait and included hitting military command centres and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian media reported strikes in parts of the country including Bandar Abbas, Tabriz and Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational civilian nuclear power.

Iran’s launched attacks in response against Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, which all host US forces. Oil prices softened after hitting their highest levels in more than a month in the previous session. Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $88.87 a barrel by 0052 GMT on Tuesday while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was steady at $82.

47 a barrel. Democrats have seized on the deaths of three US troops killed in Iranian strikes to urge Trump to urgently reverse his resumption of the war with Iran amid widespread anxiety over climbing casualties. The Lebanese army began taking charge of security in three southern villages, the US said, as a deal to secure an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah faced its first test on the ground.

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranUN

Inside the US strike on a shadow fleet tanker

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US forces struck the tanker Settebello in the Gulf of Oman on June 10, killing three Indian crew members when munitions hit the engine room and adjacent areas. Maritime tracking data indicate the vessel had transported Iranian oil under US sanctions for several years and conducted offshore transfers prior to the strike.

The US military described the action as a precision operation, while reports note the ship was stationary at the time.

Location: Strait of Hormuz

Pranav Baskar; Pragati K B; Eric Schmitt