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strikeJul 21, 2026

How the US-Iran conflict has thrown India’s Chabahar plans into doubt

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7 min readNew DelhiJul 21, 2026 03:06 PM IST A dramatic image posted on social media by US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth last week fuelled concern in India. It showed the maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port collapsing after US military strikes. The image was part of a series of photographs posted by Hegseth, captioned: “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz”. While New Delhi is already reeling under the impact of US sanctions on its strategically vital infrastructure project in Iran, where it has invested billions, the military strikes sparked fresh concerns. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) clarified that the terminal it operates at Chabahar Port, Shahid Beheshti, was not damaged in the US strikes. “We have seen some reports in that regard, but we can also tell you that the terminal itself did not face any damage,” said MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal. The ministry, however, reiterated India’s position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts. Here’s a look at the strategic importance of Chabahar for India, New Delhi’s investment in the project and how its future hangs in the balance. India’s stakes in Chabahar The Chabahar port has two main terminals — Shahid Beheshti and Shahid Kalantari — with India managing the latter. It is operated by India Ports Global Ltd (IPGL), a wholly owned subsidiary of India Ports Global Chabahar Free Zone (IPGCFZ), under a 10-year renewable agreement with Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation. A tower at the Chabahar port in 2021. Wikimedia Commons India and Iran have been developing Chabahar as a key trade and connectivity hub, particularly to improve access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Chabahar holds strategic importance for India as it provides an alternative trade route to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan, which does not allow Indian goods transit through its territory. For Iran, Chabahar is vital because it is its only oceanic port with direct access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the congested Strait of Hormuz. To ensure its continuous operation, India and Iran signed a landmark 10-year contract in May 2024 — replacing previous short-term contracts — to equip and operate the Shahid Beheshti terminal. To avoid financial penalties in the wake of US sanctions, India prepaid its $120 million investment and transferred its operational stake at Shahid Beheshti to local entities. Story continues below this ad US sanctions on Chabahar American sanctions on Chabahar stem from its broader economic and military measures against Tehran. Despite India’s continued efforts to develop the port for regional connectivity, the history of these sanctions and waivers has severely restricted the project’s progress. The Donald Trump administration walked the US out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, and imposed sanctions on dealing with Tehran. At the same time, it also granted a targeted sanctions waiver for the Chabahar port to support humanitarian and economic efforts in Afghanistan. Chabahar port location For several years, the port facilitated the delivery of Indian wheat and medical supplies to Afghanistan. In September last year, the US administration withdrew the sanctions waiver, only to grant the exemption again through a six-month waiver in October that officially expired on April 26. Jaiswal said that India has been in discussions with “relevant stakeholders” after the expiry of the waiver. Story continues below this ad “There was a waiver which was given by America and that waiver got over some time back. Post that, we have been in discussion with relevant stakeholders as to how to take this particular issue forward,” he said. Owing to the end of the sanctions waivers, India is losing its direct operational control over the Chabahar project. Importance for New Delhi, Tehran Chabahar is vital for India not only because it provides direct, secure access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, but also because it serves as a counterweight to China’s development of the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, located just 140 km away. The sea-land transit route that allows India to bypass Pakistan is also viewed as an important part of the International North-South Transport Corridor, a multi-mode transport network connecting India with Iran, Russia, Europe and parts of Central Asia. In that sense, the port represents far more than maritime infrastructure. For Tehran, however, it also serves as a crucial economic hub in the Sistan-Baluchistan province, functioning as a gateway to connect Iran with landlocked Central Asian states, Afghanistan and Russia. As Chabahar was hit by the US military strikes last week, Iran Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei lashed at Hegeseth, talking about Chabahar in the same breath as the Minab school attack. “The Chabahar Maritime Surveillance Tower — a civilian facility dedicated to maritime safety and navigation — was deliberately targeted by the United States on 16 June as part of its ongoing aggression that began on 28 February. The US Secretary of War proudly released footage of the tower’s collapse,” Baqaei posted. “Had he been able, he would likely have broadcast the lethal missile attack on the Minab school and the massacre of civilians in Lamerd with the same chilling pride.” Future hangs in balance In 2024, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told Parliament that the grant assistance for the supply of equipment (to Chabahar) had been enhanced to $120 million. “India has also committed to provide a Line of Credit of $250 million in rupee equivalent for the development of Chabahar Port. Since 2018, the port has handled over 450 vessels, 1,34,082 TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent) of containerised cargo and more than 8.7 million tons of bulk and general cargo,” he said. Story continues below this ad India has already supplied port equipment worth about $24 million to develop the port, he said, adding: “The process for procurement of remaining port equipment for Chabahar Port is underway.” Chabahar had received an allocation of Rs 400 allocation in the previous financial year. But the Union Budget for 2026-27 made no allocation for the port. This has left questions hanging over the future of this strategic trade route to Afghanistan, and further to Central Asia. Without Chabahar, India loses its primary non-Pakistani corridor to landlocked markets, effectively undoing New Delhi’s decades of connectivity planning. The port had reduced transit times by 40% and costs by nearly a third, making it indispensable for India’s regional strategy. Also, the situation is set to fuel strategic concerns for New Delhi if Beijing (via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and through Gwadar) could increase its geopolitical footprint in Iran. The elimination of the Chabahar waiver by the US by default tilts the regional balance toward China and Pakistan.

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  • Divya ABy Divya A

    7 min readNew DelhiJul 21, 2026 03:06 PM IST A dramatic image posted on social media by US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth last week fuelled concern in India. It showed the maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port collapsing after US military strikes. The image was part of a

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strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
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The government has said the UK is “ready to defend itself” after Iran’s military warned that any bases being used by the US were “legitimate targets”. The UK has allowed the US to launch “defensive” operations from British bases hosting American planes since the start of its war on Iran but has refused to help in offensive operations.

That policy has not been altered by the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who was notified last week that a decision had been made to extend the agreement with the US. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that “any base used for aggression against Iranian territory constitutes a legitimate target for our forces”.

In a statement published on the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency, the group said American bombing missions had been launched from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire two days earlier. The statement came after the US carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes against targets in Iran.

The Ministry of Defence has not commented on whether Fairford was used by the US for operations against Iran this week. The IRGC also accused the “British monarchy regime” of causing being the “primary cause of hardships in our region with a black record of partitioning Islamic nations, widespread massacres, imposing despotic regimes, and organising the occupation of Palestine”.

It warned the government “not to weigh down its record any further”. A spokesperson for the British government said: “Our armed forces are ready to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad. The UK stands ready 24/7 to defend itself.

“This includes through operating a layered approach to air and missile defence, provided by Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force assets equipped with a range of advanced capabilities, working closely with our Nato allies. “We are committed to defending our people, our interests and our allies, acting in accordance with international law and not getting drawn into the wider conflict.

” On 1 March a drone struck the RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus, hitting a hangar, and prompting a partial evacuation of the facility. On 19 March, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the UK’s Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Islands. One reportedly failed mid-flight, while the other was shot down by a US airship.

Iran has launched strikes against countries in the Gulf that house US military bases, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, killing American service personnel in some of the attacks. Donald Trump said Iran would “pay a big price” for killing US troops.

On Thursday afternoon, the US president said he was considering ordering a “massive attack” on Iran. “I am close to making a decision,” he told Axios. “We’re all set for it.” He said he believed Iran’s leaders “want to negotiate”, but aren’t yet ready to make a deal.

In another sign of the conflict potentially escalating, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, as oil topped $100 a barrel.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyRussia
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September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Thursday closed up +5.36 (+6.17%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0793 (+2.44%). WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) rallied more than +6% on Thursday after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the oil disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz and threatening oil shipments in the Red Sea.

Sep Brent crude oil prices (CBU26) on Thursday rallied above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. President Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday that he is considering a “massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision on it.

”Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation's ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi's are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the 12th straight day, and the US maintained its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned last Wednesday that it is too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.

51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries.

As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.

Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.

13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country’s refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks.

The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on July 7 raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.78 million bpd from a June estimate of 13.72 million bpd. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September.

The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On July 5, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in August, though that increase might prove difficult due to revived US-Iran military attacks in the region.

OPEC’s June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +31% w/w to 90.03 million bbl in the week ended July 17. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mostly negative for crude oil and products.

EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +2.01 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.95 million bbl decline. Also, EIA gasoline supplies rose by +765,000 bbl versus expectations of a -1.9 million bbl decline. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose by +1.

4 million bbl, a larger build than expectations of +825,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell -624,000 bbl. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 17 were -5.

3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 17 fell -0.5% w/w to 13.

798 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended July 17 rose by +7 to a 13-month high of 452 rigs, up from the 4.

25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
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TEL AVIV, July 23. /TASS/. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will deal "a crushing blow" to Iran, if it attacks the Jewish state, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned, according to the Ynet portal. "We are ready for any development of events. If Iran attacks Israel, we will deal a crushing blow," he said.

Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he was considering carrying out a massive attack on Iran, and the strikes would be harder than before. According to the American leader, Israel will "join the attack in two minutes" if requested by the United States.

However, he added that Washington "does not need anyone" to launch a new military operation. Trump did not specify a deadline for making a decision. The United States and Israel started a war with Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the terms of the agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
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The British government stated that it stands ready to defend itself following Iranian comments designating UK bases hosting US forces as legitimate targets in response to US military strikes on Iran. Iranian officials described the UK as an accomplice to US operations, while UK policy has allowed US use of bases such as RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for what the UK has termed defensive purposes.

Permissions for this arrangement, first granted in March, were extended under the current UK government.

Location: Iran