strikeMar 25, 2026

How the war in Iran could most affect Europe

Summary

In the early hours of September 2, 2015, 3-year-old Aylan Kurdi, his 5-year-old brother Galip and their mother Rihan drowned when their overcrowded boat capsized during the 12-mile journey from Bodrum, Turkey, to the Greek island of Kos. They were fleeing the siege of Kobane, a Syrian-Kurdish border town under assault by the Islamic State group. The photograph of Aylan’s lifeless body, face-down on a Turkish beach, shocked the world and became a defining symbol of the human cost of the Syrian civil war—a single child representing the millions fleeing conflict and persecution. Now, as a new war engulfs Iran, history may be repeating itself, but on an even more catastrophic scale. “Even before the current war in the Middle East there were more than 20 million forcibly displaced people in the whole region,” said Gerald Knaus, founder and director of the European Stability Initiative. “The latest fighting is producing further displacement, with no end in sight.” A Stark Warning Since late February, between 600,000 and one million Iranian households—up to 3.2 million people—have fled their homes, according to UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency. Most are fleeing from Tehran and other major urban areas toward the rural north, escaping strikes that began on February 28. The human toll has been severe. Thousands of people have been killed across the Middle East. As of March 22, 3,231 people had been killed in Iran, of which 1,407 were civilians including 214 children, according to U.S.-based rights group HRANA. Thirteen U.S. service members had been killed. Strikes have been reported in more than a dozen countries, and in Lebanon nearly 1 million people have been displaced after Israel escalated hostilities with Hezbollah. The European Union Agency for Asylum has issued a stark warning: with Iran’s population of approximately 90 million, even partial destabilization could generate refugee movements of an “unprecedented magnitude.” The agency noted that displacement of just 10 percent of Iran’s population would rival the largest refugee flows of recent decades. To understand what Europe might face, one need only look back at the Syrian civil war—a conflict that fundamentally reshaped the continent’s politics and societies. By July 2015, more than four million Syrian refugees had fled to neighboring countries. The breakdown was staggering: Turkey hosted 1,805,255 Syrian refugees, Lebanon took in 1,172,753, Jordan absorbed 629,128, Iraq sheltered 249,726 and Egypt received 132,375, per UNHCR. Lebanon’s refugee population represented approximately one in five people in the country, while Jordan’s constituted roughly 10 percent of its population, according to Amnesty International. Turkey became the crucial gateway to Europe. Over 800,000 refugees and migrants came via the Aegean Sea from Turkey into Greece in 2015, accounting for 80 percent of the people arriving irregularly in Europe by sea that year. The geographic proximity and established migration networks made Turkey the natural corridor for refugees seeking to reach the continent—a role it would likely play again if Iran’s conflict drives similar westward movement. “The main reason for the extraordinary refugee year 2015 in the Aegean was loss of hope among many refugees,” Knaus told Newsweek. “The second reason is as important, however: Turkey allowed Syrians in. Today and for many years already this is no longer true.” Over one million refugees and migrants reached Europe by sea in 2015 alone. Of these, some 972,500 had crossed the Mediterranean Sea, with an additional 34,000 crossing from Turkey into Bulgaria and Greece by land. Half of those crossing the Mediterranean that year—500,000 people—were Syrians escaping their country’s brutal civil war. The human cost was devastating: some 3,735 people were reported missing and believed drowned in 2015. By the time Aylan Kurdi’s body washed ashore, more than 300,000 people had risked their lives to reach Europe, and over 2,600 had perished in the attempt. Gateway to Tragedy The Syrian exodus wasn’t Europe’s only migration crisis. After the NATO-backed fall of Moammar Gadhafi in 2011, Libya fell into chaos and became a major transit hub for African and Middle Eastern migrants. That year alone, more than 1,500 people drowned or went missing in the Mediterranean—the deadliest year since UNHCR began tracking such data. A record 58,000 irregular migrants, asylum seekers and refugees reached Europe by sea in 2011, and by 2015, the central Mediterranean route saw 150,000 crossings. Libya’s collapse created a humanitarian catastrophe. Migrants faced horrific abuses in detention centers and were often forced onto boats by traffickers, risking death at sea. The resulting influx of refugees fundamentally reshaped European politics. Hungary, under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, erected a border fence along its frontier with Serbia in September 2015 after recording over 411,000 irregular crossings that year. Orbán’s hard-line stance against migration became a blueprint for nationalist leaders across the continent. The crisis shattered the Schengen ideal of open borders and fueled the rise of far-right, anti-immigration parties. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party, known as AfD, surged in popularity, capitalizing on public anxiety over Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to welcome over one million asylum seekers. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (formerly National Front) gained ground with anti-immigration rhetoric. The Netherlands saw Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom become a major political force, while in Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy—which would eventually lead her to the prime minister’s office in 2022—gained traction on a platform that included strict migration controls. In the U.K., the refugee crisis became a flash point in the Brexit referendum. Immigration was weaponized by pro-Leave campaigners, infamously through the “Breaking Point” poster, which showed a line of refugees under the slogan “The EU has failed us all.” The image, widely condemned as inflammatory, became a symbol of how migration fears were exploited to sway public opinion. A decade later, the political aftershocks endure. Anti-immigrant sentiment remains potent and far-right parties have cemented their influence across Europe. Meloni now governs Italy, Wilders’ party recently won Dutch elections, and the AfD has become the second-largest party in several German states. A Crisis of Much Greater Scale Iran’s population of approximately 90 million dwarfs Syria’s prewar population of 22 million. With 3.2 million Iranians already internally displaced, humanitarian agencies warn that even a modest escalation could trigger refugee flows on a scale never before seen. A displacement of just 10 percent of Iran’s population—9 million people—would far outnumber Syrians who fled their country during the entire civil war, potentially overwhelming both neighboring host countries and Europe’s already strained asylum systems. “So far, relatively few people have left Iran—the vast majority of those displaced remain in the country. But as the war continues and the situation becomes more tenuous—in addition to the strikes themselves, things like the destruction of civilian infrastructure—more and more people will assess whether to leave,” Kelsey P. Norman, a fellow for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker Institute and director of the Women’s Rights, Human Rights and Refugees Program, told Newsweek. Europe is still grappling with the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which triggered the continent’s largest refugee crisis since World War II, displacing more than 8 million people across borders and placing immense strain on national asylum systems. Around 8,000 Iranians applied for asylum in the EU in 2025. Even a modest increase in displacement would represent a dramatic surge from current levels. The International Organization for Migration has called for immediate de-escalation, warning that “military escalation would force more families from their homes and hit civilians hard.” Iraq, which already hosts more than 280,000 refugees from other countries and has nearly 1.2 million internally displaced people, finds itself bracing for a potential influx from neighboring Iran. The country’s refugee infrastructure, already strained from years of internal conflict and the ISIS insurgency, faces the prospect of absorbing potentially hundreds of thousands more displaced persons. Turkey—already hosting roughly 1.8–1.9 million Syrian refugees in 2015—faces a daunting prospect. If Iran’s conflict drives mass displacement, Turkey could again become the primary Aegean corridor to Europe, forced to choose between hardening its borders or allowing large numbers to transit. “Approximately 1,500 Iranians per day have been permitted to cross from Iran into Turkey so far, but Turkey is preparing for the possibility of large arrivals, weighing options like creating a buffer zone, setting up camps along the border or permitting certain groups of individuals to enter the country,” Norman added. “Turkey will not accept a mass number; the ruling AKP party is still contending with the politics of allowing more than 3 million Syrian refugees to remain for so long. But even if it does allow camps along the border or the creation of a buffer zone, it will absolutely seek financial assistance to do so from Europe. The infamous 6 billion euro deal with Europe from 10 years ago taught Turkey that it can effectively leverage the politics of refugee hosting to demand—or sometimes blackmail—Europe into providing financial assistance. If needed, we can expect that Turkey will employ the same tactics again,” Norman said. Knaus added that if Turkey does not allow large numbers of refugees in, they will not be able to reach the EU and remain trapped. Germany and Sweden, which absorbed the largest numbers of Syrian asylum applicants during the 2015 crisis, would again find themselves on the front lines. In 2015, EU+ countries (EU‑28 plus Norway and Switzerland) recorded 1,349,638 asylum applications—more than twice the level recorded in 2014. Syrians were the largest group of asylum applicants, accounting for 27 percent of applications in the EU+, with 369,871 applications registered that year. Germany and Sweden together received 47 percent of Syrian asylum applications in the EU between April 2011 and July 2015. Germany alone pledged 35,000 places for Syrian refugees through its humanitarian admission program in 2015. Europe Divided The Iran conflict has exposed deep divisions within Europe over migration policy. In January 2026, Spain announced it would grant legal status to potentially 500,000 undocumented migrants already in the country. While Spain’s move came before the Iran war began, European officials fear that any offer of sanctuary could create a pull factor if Iranian refugees begin fleeing en masse. The decision has created tensions with France, which shares a border with Spain and fears an influx of migrants taking advantage of Spain’s more permissive policies. This tension echoes the fractures that emerged during the 2015 crisis, when disagreements over burden-sharing and border control threatened EU unity. The difference now is that Europe’s political landscape has shifted significantly rightward, with anti-immigration leaders like Meloni, Orbán and Wilders holding substantial power. In Knaus’ view, those political dynamics cannot be separated from the forces that he said produced Europe’s largest refugee movements in the first place. “It is worth recalling that the two largest refugee crises affecting Europe in the past decade were closely linked to the actions of one man, Vladimir Putin,” he said. “First through Russia’s military intervention that helped keep [Bashar al-] Assad in power during the Syrian war, and then through the invasion of Ukraine that forced millions of Ukrainians to flee. The political effect is striking: Many of the same far-right parties in Europe that warn most loudly about refugees and fantasize about the chimera of the ‘Great Replacement’ openly sympathize with the very leader whose wars produced the largest refugee crises in Europe since the Second World War.” As the war in Iran enters its fifth week, humanitarian workers fear that Aylan Kurdi’s story—and those of thousands like him—will repeat themselves on European beaches. The 2015 crisis transformed European politics, fueled the rise of far-right movements and led to renewed debate over open borders within the EU. A new wave of displacement from Iran would test European unity, humanitarian commitments and political stability in ways the continent has not experienced in generations.

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Jennifer WignallBy Jennifer Wignall
In the early hours of September 2, 2015, 3-year-old Aylan Kurdi, his 5-year-old brother Galip and their mother Rihan drowned when their overcrowded boat capsized during the 12-mile journey from Bodrum, Turkey, to the Greek island of Kos. They were fleeing the siege of Kobane, a S…

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

US strikes Iran for 10th consecutive night as Tehran strikes tanker in the Strait of Hormuz

○ 1 source

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

JON GAMBRELL, Associated Press

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranRussiaChina

How the US-Iran conflict has thrown India’s Chabahar plans into doubt

○ 1 source

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran

Divya A

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire

○ 1 source

U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

m. ET on Monday. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

Sam Meredith

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedIsraelIranProxy

How Houthi Red Sea blockade tightens Iran's grip on energy supplies

○ 1 source

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.

Reuters