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strikeApr 13, 2026

Iran is risking its own destruction | The Jerusalem Post

Summary

The claim now echoing around television studios – that the war against Iran has gone off the rails – does not withstand scrutiny. The clear objective of this war from the outset has been to remove three threats: Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile arsenal, and its network of proxy armies across the Middle East. Certainly, the US and Israel understood in advance that war involves many unknowns. Thus, neither country can fully control the duration of the conflict, and the pre-war intelligence picture is never complete. Taken together, the US and Israel certainly knew that the elimination of Iranian threats would inevitably be partial rather than absolute. Regime change was never formally defined as a goal of the war. Consequently, it was understood that once the strikes concluded, Iran would begin rebuilding – whether its losses were modest following a short war or significant following a longer war. To limit Iran’s military recovery, a sustained effort of preemptive disruption will be necessary to neutralize risks in their infancy before they mature into major threats. Had Iran refrained from attacking its neighbors and closing the Strait of Hormuz, it is entirely plausible that President Donald Trump might have moved to end the operation, to declare victory (albeit a victory limited in time, say for a decade), and shift to a long-term strategy of containment and periodic “mowing the grass.” Instead, Tehran made a historic miscalculation. By striking regional states and choking a vital maritime artery, it echoed strategic blunders of the past: King Hussein of Jordan’s decision in 1967 to join a war he had been warned against, costing him the West Bank his grandfather had secured, and Tsar Nicholas II’s entry into World War I, which ultimately cost him his throne. Toward a more decisive phase If Iran persists in refusing to surrender on US terms, the nature of the conflict is likely to shift. What has thus been conducted along a spectrum between “deterrence” and “attritional degradation” could evolve into a war of “decisive annihilation.” Such a campaign will not be based on large-scale ground maneuvers but on systematic destruction – a methodical, almost phalanx-like destruction – aimed, in the president’s own words, at “sending Iran back to the Stone Age.” In practical terms, this would mean stripping Iran within days of not only its military capabilities but also of its capacity to sustain its economy and population. Such an outcome could, even if not originally intended, trigger internal unrest leading to regime collapse. Yet this creates a fundamental moral contradiction. The notion of reducing Iran to ruin sits uneasily alongside declarations of solidarity with the Iranian people. For that reason, if the United States moves to destroy Iran’s economy and more, it bears a moral responsibility to complete the process through regime change – liberating Iranian citizens from the rule of the ayatollahs. Given its geostrategic position, a devastated Iran could invite in China, Russia, and North Korea to rebuild its military and economy. Western states, too, might be tempted to assist in exchange for secure passage through Hormuz. For this reason, Washington cannot rely on an organic internal uprising. It must act decisively – perhaps through creative mechanisms such as the transfer of sovereignty – to ensure rapid and controlled transition. In such a scenario, the US and Israel will have to apply a doctrine of constant security enforcement, continuously “mowing the grass,” but going beyond it toward uprooting threats at their emergence. Even a decisive campaign will not eliminate all dangers. Residual Iranian military capabilities, hidden deep within Iran’s mountainous terrain, could still be used to strike at Israel and Gulf states. Proxy networks in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq would remain active, and there is a real possibility of unconventional retaliation, including the activation of covert terror cells embedded worldwide, potentially even within Israel itself. The reality is undeniably complex but manageable. Neither Israel nor the United States ever intended to conduct a large-scale ground invasion of Iran. A methodical, stand-off campaign was always the more plausible path. Paradoxically, credit for this escalation – from attrition to decisive destruction – must be given to Iran itself. And the transition to decisive destruction, which could require repeat military engagement if the regime does not disintegrate, may endure for more than a decade. But this does not mean that war has gone wrong. Just the opposite. The war has not failed but has been upgraded – by Iran itself. The writer is a senior fellow at the Jerusalem-based Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy.

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The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

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