Iran War Until 2029? Vance, Rubio Privately Warn Trump It Could Drag Through End Of His Term President Trump on Wednesday told reporters to expect more US attacks on Iranian tankers, as the war over the Hormuz Strait continues to escalate in piecemeal tit-for-tat fashion. "The attacks are made by us. We’ve knocked out nine of their ships. I would say that the attacks are caused by us, and you’re going to see a lot more," the president told reporters on Wednesday, adding that many of the Iranian tankers are "donezo" - as global oil prices continue to climb. The region has now seen over six months of war since Trump launched an operation that he and White House officials at first suggested would just be 'days' - and then insisted (repeatedly) would be a 'four to six week' campaign. via The Associated Press All along the White House has kept moving the goal posts, amid lack of overall strategic vision and failure to articulate what exactly enough of a 'victory' to establish a military exit would look like. Speaking of drastically moving the goal post, the below was another key media exchange with Trump on Wednesday: Q: Do you expect negotiations with Iran to restart at some point? Trump: Uhhhhhh... we're not looking for it to be honest with you. This war will end immediately after our election. This as The Wall Street Journal has issued a report saying Trump's top advisors are now warning him that the Iran conflict could last through the rest of his term. Trump has called it 'small potatoes' - but he may now have his very own forever war... Top White House advisers have raised privately with President Trump the prospect that the Iran war could drag on through the remainder of his term, U.S. officials said, a message at odds with Trump’s public assurances of a swift victory. In the Oval Office and Situation Room, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others have discussed with the president that Tehran could continue to resist U.S. pressure under the blockade and other military tactics, potentially extending the conflict past Inauguration Day in January 2029, the officials said. ...oh to have been a fly on the wall during that little meeting. According to more snippets from the WSJ report: The closed-door discussions come as Trump told reporters Wednesday that the war will end “immediately” after the midterm elections in November “because they can’t hold out any longer.” ...Trump often speaks privately with aides of his desire for a quick resolution to the war, which is in its seventh month and has killed 18 servicemembers, the officials said. But Trump also supports a long-term economic siege, using a naval blockade and sanctions in a bid to force the regime to dismantle its nuclear program. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has portrayed the new strategy—dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast”—as an alternative to major combat operations. Iran has been touting that it is ready to endure and survive at any cost while this week vowing 'disproportionate' responses to any military aggression from the United States. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi stated Wednesday, "We have reached a point where if the enemy strikes at 2 or 3 of our targets, we will respond forcefully by striking at 20." Back in mid-March, at a moment Trump officials were still claiming Operation Epic Fury would be swift and effective, US intelligence at the time assessed that Iran's leadership and government are largely in tact and the system does not risk collapse. And now, half a year into the war, the exact same can be said. Even the establishment CFR's Foreign Affairs makes the case for a conservative realism contra Bessent's forecasts in Why America Can’t Strangle Iran: But even as the country’s economic situation is getting worse, Iran’s leadership remains better able to resist the coercive effects of sanctions than it might appear. The state of the economy is not yet impinging on Iran’s ability to wage war. Stockpiles of various goods remain deep, thanks to years of sanctions experience. And the Iranian state, with its powerful repressive tools, has figured out how to offload much of the economic pain onto ordinary Iranians while making sure its own needs are met. Trump’s approach, in other words, can certainly immiserate most of the country’s people. But it cannot successfully strangle the Islamic Republic itself. One pundit has accurately described the state of play which defines Iran's existential survival posture, pointing out: "Endurance regimes do not need clean victory to change the game. They only need to survive the shock while making the old equilibrium too costly for their adversaries to restore." So 'winning' for Iran looks much different, compared to US objectives. Anyone have an update on this? pic.twitter.com/frT8CSRcN2 — Ron Shillman (@shillman1) September 9, 2026 But at a moment that Iran's ballistic missile capability is still obviously very much intact - given that just this very week US bases in Jordan were targeted in a huge volley - White House official statements have a Baghdad Bob flavor to them... "President Trump has destroyed Iran’s military capabilities and is crippling what’s left of its abysmal economy with the most powerful naval blockade in world history and crushing sanctions," White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said. "Only President Trump knows what he will do and when." Ok, sure. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 09:45
Iran War Until 2029? Vance, Rubio Privately Warn Trump It Could Drag Through End Of His Term President Trump on Wednesday told reporters to expect more US attacks on Iranian tankers, as the war over the Hormuz Strait continues to escalate in piecemeal tit-for-tat fas…
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The IMF stated it is closely monitoring the potential economic impacts of proposed US measures to tighten restrictions on Iran and enforce secondary sanctions, with a fuller assessment planned for upcoming reports. This economic pressure follows a shift from large-scale military strikes to sanctions, occurring after both sides signed a memorandum of understanding in June that included an immediate cessation of hostilities.
Trump Warns 'Activity' Seen At Iran's Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Site: 'Don't Get Cute'
This week there's been more mainstream reporting and chatter centered on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain. The nuclear development site has been of special interest and focus to the Trump administration due to how immensely fortified it is, meaning the Iranians can conduct uranium enrichment activities deep under the mountain if they so desire.
The US and IAEA are essentially operating blind on this, and that's exactly how the Iranians want it of course. A Thursday Bloomberg report begins: "The United Nations atomic watchdog said it’s observed construction activity at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, a heavily-fortified site suspected of housing nuclear-related activities." Vantor/Reuters
It should be noted that Tehran has long complained that IAEA officials have leaked sensitive information to Israeli spies and leaders. The Iranians see it as a compromised organization.
Bloomberg continues, also referencing its own prior reporting: "The International Atomic Energy Agency has yet to inspect inside the tunnel complex but remote imagery indicates new movement at the site just south of Tehran’s main uranium-enrichment plant, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg Television."
President Trump has on at least two occasions drawn attention to the new reporting this week.
"We notice there’s a little activity at Pickaxe. I would advise Iran not to get cute because we will have to hit them very hard," Trump said in a speech at Wednesday night's midterm Republican convention.
Before this, Trump has threatened major attack on the mountain, though some pundits and analysts have speculated that it would take nothing less than dropping a tactical nuke in order to destroy or at least severely damage the fortification.
Some crazy hawks appear to lately be calling for just such a nuclear escalation from Washington, amid persisting frustration over fierce Iranian resistance and lack of 'options' the Trump administration has left itself with, also with negotiations at this point appearing totally abandoned.
Pentagon build Iran NUCLEAR PICKAXE MOUNTAIN in New Mexico 'ONILY NUKE can damage facility' — Iran Observer pic.twitter.com/M0H6oBlepx — RT (@RT_com) September 10, 2026 Trump's Wednesday warning to Tehran was coupled with this surprising statement about the war extending to after the November midterm elections: "I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer," the president told reporters.
He has continued to warn - amid growing public pushback over an unpopular extended war - that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. However even the CIA has long assessed that there's no clear or high-level evidence that Tehran is actually bent on achieving weapons status. But if anything, the war itself may have pushed the country in the direction of getting a nuke.
Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 14:20
Iran is increasingly relying on the Houthis in Yemen and allied militias in Iraq to pressure Saudi Arabia and other US allies in the Gulf, according to regional officials and experts. In July, Saudi Arabia and the US struck Iran-backed Iraqi militias after the groups were blamed for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities claimed by the Houthis.
Two Saudi officials and a senior Iraqi security official told Reuters that Houthi representatives had worked from an operations room run by Iraqi militias to plan and carry out the two-day drone attack. Officials from Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces denied involvement.
The shift comes after several of Iran’s most important regional allies and partners suffered major losses in the wars that followed Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Israel severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, while US and Israeli strikes also targeted Iran and allied groups elsewhere in the region.
Regional officials and experts say Tehran has increasingly relied on the Houthis and Iraqi militias to pressure Saudi Arabia and other US allies in the Gulf. Geopolitics · Middle East Conflict Yemen on the Brink: Civil War & Global Oil Shipping How Houthi escalation and Red Sea shipping threats threaten regional stability and global energy markets.
40M+ Population 150K Past Casualties Buckling Ceasefire Yemen is moving closer to a return to civil war as a 2022 ceasefire with the internationally recognized government and Saudi-backed coalition buckles. Over 40 million residents fear a renewal of the conflict that previously brought widespread famine and humanitarian crisis.
Red Sea Port of Mokha Residents report that Houthi rebels have entered the key Red Sea port of Mokha, previously held by the government. This endangers a crucial entry point for food and humanitarian assistance in a country where many remain hungry and beyond the reach of aid.
Bab el-Mandeb Approach If the Houthis take Mokha, it marks a significant step toward the Bab el-Mandeb strait, creating further complications for vital Red Sea shipping lanes as global traffic diverts away from the targeted Strait of Hormuz. Testing Blockades Weeks ago, the Houthis tested a Saudi-led blockade of rebel-held areas.
In response, Saudi airstrikes hit the international airport in the rebel-held capital of Sanaa, following Houthi attacks on oil facilities and utilities in Saudi Arabia that wounded dozens. Targeting Saudi Oil Alternatives With the Iran war choking the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis are targeting Saudi efforts to ship oil via the Red Sea, aligning with Tehran's war aims to limit oil shipments from the Gulf and inflict economic pain on US-allied Saudi Arabia.
$1 Trillion Red Sea Goods >$100 Crude Oil / Bbl Expanding Houthi Control Analyst Ahmed Nagi notes that the Houthis now control a much larger stretch of the western coast, bringing them closer to Bab al-Mandeb and posing a flashing danger sign for global energy consumers already rattled by high crude prices.
The immediate threat is now concentrated on Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Four Yemeni government military sources told Reuters on Thursday that the Houthis had seized Mocha, a historic port city about 80 km from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Associated Press reported that two residents said Houthi forces had entered and spread across the city, although it could not independently verify their accounts.
The Houthis have also advanced towards the strategic Hanish Islands, according to Yemeni government sources, while government forces and their allies are moving south towards Dhubab. The town sits directly on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, opposite the island of Perim.
Story continues below this ad Control of Dhubab and Perim would give either side a crucial position from which to influence traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Key shipping route at risk Bab el-Mandeb links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is a critical route for ships carrying oil, fuel and other goods between Asia, Europe and the Middle East via the Suez Canal.
Its importance has increased as the conflict with Iran has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Gulf oil exports. Saudi Arabia has been sending more oil through the Red Sea as an alternative to the disrupted Strait of Hormuz.
But the alternative route is now also coming under pressure from the Houthis. Story continues below this ad The Houthis have attacked Saudi oil facilities and shipping in the Red Sea and declared a naval blockade against Saudi shipping. Yemen risks return to full-scale civil war The fighting also raises the risk of Yemen returning to full-scale civil war.
A UN-brokered truce in 2022 largely stopped years of major fighting between the Houthis and forces supporting Yemen’s internationally recognised government. Recent clashes are now threatening that fragile calm. More than 20,000 people have been displaced by fighting in Taiz and Hodeida over the past two weeks, according to Yemeni government data cited by Reuters.
Hundreds of women and children also left Mocha on Thursday. Story continues below this ad Saudi Arabia says recent Houthi attacks on civilian and economic sites in its south have wounded 73 people, including women and children. The Houthis, meanwhile, said Saudi strikes hit several provinces in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia has not confirmed those strikes. Saudi warning sent to Iran Saudi, Pakistani and Iranian sources told Reuters that Pakistan conveyed a Saudi warning to Tehran asking it to rein in the Houthis. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran does not control the Houthis.
Two other Iranian sources, however, told the news agency that Tehran had instructed the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia and promised additional funding and weapons. Story continues below this ad The Houthi advance towards Bab el-Mandeb therefore adds another danger to the regional conflict: Yemen risks sliding back into full-scale war while another major route for global oil and trade comes under growing pressure.
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IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi stated that satellite imagery indicates construction activity at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain site, though the agency has not yet conducted an inspection. This statement follows reports citing CSIS analysts who described the recent work as internal construction and reinforcement, while noting the facility is not currently capable of enrichment.
Concurrently, US President Donald Trump threatened potential strikes on the site, amidst reports that the US military is developing a new bunker-buster munition to target deeply buried structures.