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מעקב משבר איראן-המפרץ 2026
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strikeMar 27, 2026

Is Energy Market Complacent Amid Oil's Backwardation? ETFs in Focus

Summary

Oil prices have remained highly volatile since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict about a month ago due to uncertain supply dynamics. While prices have pulled back at times on hopes of ceasefire, they continue to trade at elevated levels due to ongoing tensions, including missile strikes and congestion in the Strait of Hormuz. United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO has gained about 44.3% over the past month due to heightened geopolitical tensions but the ETF has lost about 8.3% over the past week on cues of diplomacy (as of March 25, 2026). Oil in Backwardation: Signals Temporary Price Spike Despite the volatility, the oil market has entered backwardation, where near-term prices are higher than those for future delivery, as quoted on CNBC. This structure suggests that the current price surge is viewed as temporary due to immediate geopolitical risks rather than long-term supply shortages. If markets expected prolonged supply concerns, long-dated future contracts would also trade at higher prices, not lower ones. Market watchers believe that the current rally is being treated as an event-driven spike, with expectations that prices will ease once a resolution is reached. Supply Risks to Last Long? Despite expectations of a resolution, risks remain significant. Damage to energy infrastructure could take years to repair. According to Rystad Energy’s estimates, energy infrastructure repair and restoration costs to date could be at least $25 billion, based on an initial assessment of impacted facilities, and are expected to rise further.Spending is likely to be on engineering and construction, followed by equipment and materials. In the war, Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field. Later, Iran apparently targeted natural gas infrastructure in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. With Qatar being the world’s third-largest gas exporter, any strike could be a massive hit to the global supply. Per Jim Krane, a fellow in Middle East Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, there have been direct attacks on multibillion-dollar infrastructure that’s going to take as long as five years to fix. This is likely to keep a significant portion of global liquified natural gas supplies off the market for a long time, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. Overall, several experts warn that markets may not be fully pricing in the long-term impact of infrastructure damage. Hence, the latest trend of backwardation in the oil market is probably a sign of complacency. Pre-War Oil Price Less Likely to be Back? Even as futures markets point to lower prices ahead, a risk premium remains firmly embedded, as quoted on CNBC. Indrani De, head of globalinvestment researchat FTSE Russell, told CNBC about this trend. For instance, Brent crude for December delivery (meaning year-end/ long-dated level) is traded near $79.70 at the time of CNBC reporting. This year-end price level is about 17% below current prices, but about 10% higher than pre-war levels. This suggests that while markets anticipate an eventual normalization, they continue to factor in the impact of the Iran war damage. ETFs in Focus Against this backdrop, investors should closely track energy exploration ETFs like State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF XLE and MLP ETFs like Alerian MLP ETF AMLP. AMLP ETF yields as high as 7.44% annually. If the Iran conflicts end soon, these ETFs may fall but not to the pre-war level. With MLPs offering high current income, the segment can offer good buying opportunities in the present scenario. On the other hand, extremely energy-dependent country ETFs like iShares India 50 ETF INDY may reel under pressure for longer than expected. Boost Your Portfolio with Our Top ETF Insights Zacks' exclusive Fund Newsletter delivers actionable information, top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, straight to your inbox every week. Don’t miss out on this valuable resource. It’s free!Get it now >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE): ETF Research Reports Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP): ETF Research Reports United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO): ETF Research Reports iShares India 50 ETF (INDY): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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Japan’s Defense Ministry said Friday that Iran used its geographical advantage to “inflict unbearable costs at a relatively low military expense,” effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz by indicating that it had laid naval mines, Kyodo News reported.

The ministry said Japan would strengthen its defense capabilities based on lessons from the US-Iran war, including by using defense equipment also operated by allies and like-minded partners to help ensure rapid supplies from other countries. It also stressed the need to maintain sufficient missile stockpiles and be prepared to quickly increase defense equipment production in an emergency, according to its first report analyzing the Iran war since February.

The US-Israeli war against Iran began on Feb. 28, with attacks targeting military, nuclear and infrastructure sites across the country. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel and US military facilities across the region. READ: EU joins US-led campaign to isolate Iran financially: Treasury chief Bessent Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 18 concerning freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, but its implementation has stalled amid disagreements over security arrangements in the strait.

The Japanese report also said the country should take its own geographical characteristics into account when developing combat strategies, including the fact that it is surrounded by sea. The report noted the US use of AI to accelerate decision-making and operations, citing attacks on around 1,000 targets within 24 hours, while also highlighting the risk of AI making incorrect judgments.

“It is important to establish a process that maximizes the benefits of AI while ensuring appropriate human involvement,” the ministry said. The report comes ahead of a planned revision of Japan’s key security documents by the end of this year.

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A major offensive by Yemen's Houthis to seize control of the gateway to the Red Sea has left more than 120 people dead, sources told AFP Friday, the country's deadliest clashes in years. Fighting erupted on Thursday, after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a ground assault along with rocket and drone attacks near coastal areas, vying for control of the narrow Bab al-Mandab strait at the Red Sea's southern entrance.

Yemen, embroiled in more than a decade of civil conflict, in July became the latest country to be drawn into the Middle East war as the Houthis upended a 2022 truce with the Saudi-backed government. Since then, the Houthis have imposed a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and repeatedly attacked its ships in the Red Sea -- a vital alternative route for oil exports after Iran all but halted Gulf shipments by blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

The rebels are now trying to tighten their hold over the Red Sea, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, which they have disrupted with attacks on passing vessels since the Gaza war broke out in 2023. The Houthi offensive aims to cut off the government-held port city of Mokha, under fire for weeks, and advance towards areas bordering the Bab al-Mandab, military sources told AFP.

The rebels have seized elevated sites overlooking government positions near the Red Sea and the city of Taiz further inland, a military source and a Taiz official told AFP, requesting anonymity. The Houthis could target ships from these elevated positions, they said.

The toll rose to 129 on Friday, according to an AFP tally compiled from several sources, up from an earlier count of 81. A Yemeni military official speaking on condition of anonymity told AFP that 66 of his men had been killed, while medical and military sources close to the Houthis said at least 62 militants had died.

Another medical source said a civilian had also been killed. Although the Houthis do not control areas bordering Bab al-Mandab, they hold the key port city of Hodeida north of Mokha. "They are going for Bab al-Mandab," said Mohammed al-Basha, of the US-based risk advisory Basha Report.

The Houthis want to control the hills overlooking Bab al-Mandab and Mokha before attacking the coast, a Yemeni official in Aden, the government's base since it was ousted from the rebel-held capital, Sanaa, in 2014. The government has sent reinforcements to Taiz from Aden on Saudi orders, he said.

"The Houthis feel that if they capture Bab al-Mandab or Mokha port they will be in a better position of power to negotiate with the government and the Saudis," Basha added. With Iran's closure of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint has gained increased importance as a transit route for oil from Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter of crude.

The narrow waterway connects the Red Sea -- and, via the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean -- to the Indian Ocean. In July, a fragile truce between the Houthis and the government fell apart after the rebels welcomed an Iranian plane to Sanaa, setting off a spate of attacks.

They later announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and began hitting its ships and territory.

Location: Tyre
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If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Israel started bombing Iran's nuclear facilities the next day, soon joined by the U.

S. Iran's uranium-enrichment plants were destroyed or badly damaged. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

FRESH DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

"(The board) requests the (IAEA) Director General to transmit this resolution and the previously adopted resolutions ... to all Members of the Agency and to the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations," said the latest resolution draft seen by Reuters.

It also "reiterates its call upon Iran to urgently remedy its non-compliance with its Safeguards Agreement by taking all steps deemed necessary by the Agency and the Board, so that the Director General can provide the necessary assurances regarding the correctness and completeness of Iran's declarations".

The draft has not yet been formally submitted to the board and negotiations over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. Whenever the four powers have submitted a draft resolution on Iran in recent years, it has passed. Concrete action by the Security Council against Iran is unlikely since Tehran's allies Russia and China are permanent, veto-wielding members.

IAEA CONCERNS OVER ENRICHMENT Iran has often retaliated following IAEA board resolutions against it by escalating its nuclear activities or scaling back cooperation with the IAEA, but its options for both are currently extremely limited. It is unclear what other repercussions there might be on Tehran's conflict with the U.

S. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes. Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb.

The IAEA has said the amount it has enriched to that level is of serious concern. The IAEA estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to that level before its sites were bombed. That is enough, if enriched further, for 10 nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN
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The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

Resolution would be culmination of standoff over IAEA's access to nuclear sites A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

A draft text for the resolution has yet to be formally submitted to the board and negotiations between countries over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. A draft is usually formally submitted early in the week of a board meeting. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes.

Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb. The amount it has enriched to that level is "a matter of serious concern" to the IAEA. The IAEA believes well over 200 kg of that highly enriched uranium has survived the bombardments and is held in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and at the Natanz facility.

Location: Jerusalem