ConflictClarifier

מעקב משבר איראן-המפרץ 2026
CC
Events Archive
strikeMar 25, 2026

Obstacles to ending war come into focus as US and Iran outline starkly different demands

Summary

Obstacles to ending war come into focus as US and Iran outline starkly different demands By Jennifer Hansler, Kylie Atwood, Tal Shalev, CNN (CNN) — Almost exactly one month ago, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met indirectly with the Iranians in Geneva as the Trump administration continued to claim diplomacy was its preferred option. Two days later, the US and Israel launched their war against Iran. Now, the United States is again seeking to return to talks after President Donald Trump’s about face on Monday when he announced the two countries were negotiating an end to the conflict –- but there are significant hurdles on the path back to the negotiating table despite public optimism voiced by the White House. Gulf and European allies are closely watching and growing concerned about the lack of momentum towards negotiations to end the conflict or even put a ceasefire into place, multiple sources told CNN. Although there are efforts underway to try to arrange a meeting between the two sides, sources say such a gathering is unlikely to take place soon given the wide gap between the two countries’ demands. The specter of continued military action by the US and Israel looms large over potential discussions. Meanwhile, Tehran perceives itself to possess a key tool that it did not have prior to the outbreak of the war: virtual control over the Strait of Hormuz. “The very basics must be agreed on before the two sides board and take off for negotiations,” one regional source, told CNN adding that Iranians have now given “a maximum no to a maximalist offer.” Earlier this week, the US conveyed, via Pakistan, a 15-point list of demands for Iran. Many of the demands echo those made by the US before the war began: Iran committing to no nuclear weapons, the US taking possession of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, limits on Tehran’s defense capabilities, and an end of Iran’s support for proxies. If that is truly the US’ position, “there is no world where there’ll be successful negotiations,” Nate Swanson, a former career US government official who served as director for Iran at the National Security Council, told CNN. The other key player in the war, Israel, is concerned that the US may declare a one-month ceasefire in order to facilitate negotiations with Iran, two Israeli sources told CNN. However, the country remains skeptical about the prospect of a breakthrough, according to one of the sources. “The maximum Iran might be willing to give does not meet the minimum the US is demanding,” the source said, adding that Israel views several elements of the US framework as “positive and good for Israel” -– in particular those regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the activities of its regional proxies. However, another Israeli source said that in the long run, Israel is wary that an eventual ceasefire agreement will not address all of its concerns, particularly regarding Iran’s ballistic missile program and proxy activities around the region. Swanson said Iran likely perceives Trump is taking the same stance as before – offering capitulation or escalation – and it does not appear that Iran is taking the prospect of diplomacy seriously. Tehran, he said, is putting out “an equally as audacious and unrealistic proposal.” On Wednesday, an Iranian official outlined the country’s own list of demands, according to state-run media outlet Press TV. They include a complete halt to “aggression and assassinations,” establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure the war on Iran does not resume, guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations, an end to military operations across all fronts and for all Iranian proxies throughout the region, and a guarantee that Iran can exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. No sign of a viable agreement Tehran’s ability to snarl the key waterway, despite US progress degrading Iran’s military capabilities, has caused the price of fuel to skyrocket and set global markets on edge. It is also a potential edge for Iran in future negotiations, and sources say none of the interlocutors sending messages between the two sides or the Trump administration are now able to convey what the contours of a viable agreement might look like. Some Gulf nations and other US allies would like to see an immediate halt to fighting and an opening of the strait, but others want a grander deal to be reached. UAE’s Ambassador to the US Yousef Al Otaiba wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Wednesday saying that a ceasefire is not enough right now, advocating for an overall agreement to be struck. “A simple cease-fire isn’t enough. We need a conclusive outcome that addresses Iran’s full range of threats: nuclear capabilities, missiles, drones, terror proxies and blockades of international sea lanes,” Otaiba wrote. “Strait of Hormuz is a new tool for them in a way we haven’t seen before,” said Swanson, who is now at the Atlantic Council, noting that Iran likes to serve as “tollbooth operator” for the passage. Iranian officials have continued to maintain they are not in negotiations with the US, but Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi did acknowledge an exchange of messages between the two countries through mediators. “The fact that messages are being sent and we respond with warnings or state our positions is not called negotiation or dialogue; it is an exchange of messages,” he said on the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting network. “In these messages, ideas were raised that have been conveyed to top authorities, and if a position needs to be taken, they will announce it,” Araghchi said Wednesday. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, meanwhile, insisted on Wednesday that “talks continue” and “they are productive.” Trump administration officials are working to arrange a meeting in Pakistan this weekend to discuss an off ramp to the war, two senior administration officials told CNN. The current plans have Vice President JD Vance traveling to the country, possibly alongside other top Trump officials. Iranian representatives have let the Trump administration know it does not want to re-enter negotiations with Witkoff and Kushner and would prefer to engage with Vance, two regional sources said. Trump on Tuesday said Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Kushner and Witkoff are currently leading negotiations with Iran. Officials cautioned that the timing of a potential trip is fluid, as is the location and who may attend. Turkey has also been suggested as a potential location for the talks, two sources familiar with the matter said, as some officials raise security concerns about holding a meeting in Pakistan. Both Pakistan and Turkey have served as intermediaries between the US and Iran. Amid the flurry of back and forth about potential talks this weekend, Gulf allies are privately urging the Trump administration against ramping up the war by putting boots on the ground to occupy Kharg Island or remove Iran’s highly enriched uranium, a senior Gulf official said, citing concerns that a US occupation of the island would result in high casualties, likely trigger Iranian retaliation against regional infrastructure, and prolong the conflict. Still, the potential for further US military action is looming. Approximately 1,000 US soldiers with the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division are expecting to deploy in coming days to the Middle East, according to two sources familiar with the matter, adding to the growing military firepower in the region as the Trump administration says it is in talks with Iran to end the conflict. Leavitt warned Wednesday that if “Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment,” Trump “is prepared to unleash hell.” CNN’s Alayna Treene, Kristen Holmes, Kevin Liptak and Mohammed Tawfeeq contributed reporting. The-CNN-Wire ™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.

Actors involved

USIranIsrael

Sources

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranEUChina
1 source

Japan’s Defense Ministry said Friday that Iran used its geographical advantage to “inflict unbearable costs at a relatively low military expense,” effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz by indicating that it had laid naval mines, Kyodo News reported.

The ministry said Japan would strengthen its defense capabilities based on lessons from the US-Iran war, including by using defense equipment also operated by allies and like-minded partners to help ensure rapid supplies from other countries. It also stressed the need to maintain sufficient missile stockpiles and be prepared to quickly increase defense equipment production in an emergency, according to its first report analyzing the Iran war since February.

The US-Israeli war against Iran began on Feb. 28, with attacks targeting military, nuclear and infrastructure sites across the country. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel and US military facilities across the region. READ: EU joins US-led campaign to isolate Iran financially: Treasury chief Bessent Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 18 concerning freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, but its implementation has stalled amid disagreements over security arrangements in the strait.

The Japanese report also said the country should take its own geographical characteristics into account when developing combat strategies, including the fact that it is surrounded by sea. The report noted the US use of AI to accelerate decision-making and operations, citing attacks on around 1,000 targets within 24 hours, while also highlighting the risk of AI making incorrect judgments.

“It is important to establish a process that maximizes the benefits of AI while ensuring appropriate human involvement,” the ministry said. The report comes ahead of a planned revision of Japan’s key security documents by the end of this year.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
1 source

A major offensive by Yemen's Houthis to seize control of the gateway to the Red Sea has left more than 120 people dead, sources told AFP Friday, the country's deadliest clashes in years. Fighting erupted on Thursday, after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a ground assault along with rocket and drone attacks near coastal areas, vying for control of the narrow Bab al-Mandab strait at the Red Sea's southern entrance.

Yemen, embroiled in more than a decade of civil conflict, in July became the latest country to be drawn into the Middle East war as the Houthis upended a 2022 truce with the Saudi-backed government. Since then, the Houthis have imposed a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and repeatedly attacked its ships in the Red Sea -- a vital alternative route for oil exports after Iran all but halted Gulf shipments by blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

The rebels are now trying to tighten their hold over the Red Sea, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, which they have disrupted with attacks on passing vessels since the Gaza war broke out in 2023. The Houthi offensive aims to cut off the government-held port city of Mokha, under fire for weeks, and advance towards areas bordering the Bab al-Mandab, military sources told AFP.

The rebels have seized elevated sites overlooking government positions near the Red Sea and the city of Taiz further inland, a military source and a Taiz official told AFP, requesting anonymity. The Houthis could target ships from these elevated positions, they said.

The toll rose to 129 on Friday, according to an AFP tally compiled from several sources, up from an earlier count of 81. A Yemeni military official speaking on condition of anonymity told AFP that 66 of his men had been killed, while medical and military sources close to the Houthis said at least 62 militants had died.

Another medical source said a civilian had also been killed. Although the Houthis do not control areas bordering Bab al-Mandab, they hold the key port city of Hodeida north of Mokha. "They are going for Bab al-Mandab," said Mohammed al-Basha, of the US-based risk advisory Basha Report.

The Houthis want to control the hills overlooking Bab al-Mandab and Mokha before attacking the coast, a Yemeni official in Aden, the government's base since it was ousted from the rebel-held capital, Sanaa, in 2014. The government has sent reinforcements to Taiz from Aden on Saudi orders, he said.

"The Houthis feel that if they capture Bab al-Mandab or Mokha port they will be in a better position of power to negotiate with the government and the Saudis," Basha added. With Iran's closure of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint has gained increased importance as a transit route for oil from Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter of crude.

The narrow waterway connects the Red Sea -- and, via the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean -- to the Indian Ocean. In July, a fragile truce between the Houthis and the government fell apart after the rebels welcomed an Iranian plane to Sanaa, setting off a spate of attacks.

They later announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and began hitting its ships and territory.

Location: Tyre
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUNRussiaChina
1 source

If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Israel started bombing Iran's nuclear facilities the next day, soon joined by the U.

S. Iran's uranium-enrichment plants were destroyed or badly damaged. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

FRESH DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

"(The board) requests the (IAEA) Director General to transmit this resolution and the previously adopted resolutions ... to all Members of the Agency and to the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations," said the latest resolution draft seen by Reuters.

It also "reiterates its call upon Iran to urgently remedy its non-compliance with its Safeguards Agreement by taking all steps deemed necessary by the Agency and the Board, so that the Director General can provide the necessary assurances regarding the correctness and completeness of Iran's declarations".

The draft has not yet been formally submitted to the board and negotiations over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. Whenever the four powers have submitted a draft resolution on Iran in recent years, it has passed. Concrete action by the Security Council against Iran is unlikely since Tehran's allies Russia and China are permanent, veto-wielding members.

IAEA CONCERNS OVER ENRICHMENT Iran has often retaliated following IAEA board resolutions against it by escalating its nuclear activities or scaling back cooperation with the IAEA, but its options for both are currently extremely limited. It is unclear what other repercussions there might be on Tehran's conflict with the U.

S. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes. Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb.

The IAEA has said the amount it has enriched to that level is of serious concern. The IAEA estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to that level before its sites were bombed. That is enough, if enriched further, for 10 nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN
1 source

The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

Resolution would be culmination of standoff over IAEA's access to nuclear sites A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

A draft text for the resolution has yet to be formally submitted to the board and negotiations between countries over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. A draft is usually formally submitted early in the week of a board meeting. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes.

Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb. The amount it has enriched to that level is "a matter of serious concern" to the IAEA. The IAEA believes well over 200 kg of that highly enriched uranium has survived the bombardments and is held in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and at the Natanz facility.

Location: Jerusalem