ConflictClarifier

מעקב משבר איראן-המפרץ 2026
CC
Events Archive
strikeAug 18, 2026

Pentagon Weighing Permanent Smaller US Presence In Gulf (Just Don't Call It Retreat)

Summary

Pentagon Weighing Permanent Smaller US Presence In Gulf (Just Don't Call It Retreat) Already US officials have signaled they may just abandon hard-hit bases in the Middle East altogether, in the wake of Iran's retaliation as a result of Operation Epic Fury, and a conflict that's dragged on for nearly six months. On Tuesday The Washington Post reviews the damage control underway, as the Pentagon 'evaluates' its future military footprint. All of this is framed as if Washington has a choice and full control over the matter, when it seems that all along the Trump administration was woefully underestimating what an Iranian response would look like. "The Pentagon is evaluating its military footprint in the Middle East in an early sign of the Iran war’s potential to transform the U.S. presence in the region, according to eight people, including officials and others familiar with the matter," Washington Post writes. Air Force file image "One of the key areas the Defense Department is assessing is whether to pull back troops from the Persian Gulf, where America’s large overseas military bases have been battered by months of Iranian strikes, two people familiar with the ongoing analysis said," it adds, further calling this a "once-in-a-generation" chance for the Pentagon to alter its presence in the region. The whole thing is being reported as if the 'smart people' are in the room and in control, and also as if the US hegemon in the region didn't already take a massive reputational hit following 'forever wars' and occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Over 20 years after the initial invasions, the Taliban remains in firm control of Kabul and Afghanistan, and Shiite pro-Iranian politicians run Baghdad. And now a half-year into a war where the response should have been entirely anticipated (having been predicted by years and decades of Persian Gulf war-gaming and intelligence papers), this is where things stand: “The war really did highlight the vulnerability ... of U.S. forces in the region,” said Michael Ratney, a former diplomat who served as the U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia and the deputy chief of mission in Qatar. Moving troops and equipment further west to Jordan, Israel or the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia could help alleviate some of the pressure, he argued, while noting the added distance wasn’t a “perfect solution to this problem.” Iran has already demonstrated it can strike faraway targets in Jordan and Israel. Last month an Iranian attack on Jordan killed four U.S. service members. Anyone with eyes to see knows that this is already happening. For months at this point, dozens of US refueling aircraft have clogged up Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion airport, for just one example. For smarter and more legitimate analysis, one can turn to Amerikanets, which one month ago was chronicling Tehran's successful campaign of 'debasification': The broad picture of the Iranian air war in this phase has been a steady wave of concentrated missile and drone strikes sweeping its way across the region. In contrast to the previous hot phase of the war, in which Iran targeted bases across the entire theater simultaneously, this wave started with the targets close to Iranian shores, and has progressed steadily to the Israeli border. After destroying much of the radar network protecting regional US Axis bases in the previous hot phase of the war, Iranian planners have prioritized targeting fuel storage, drone hangers, refueling tankers, and barracks. The American response has been to pull assets back ever further from Iran, to bases in Israel and Jordan. We’ll call this process debasification. Iran’s debasification strategy takes advantage of the inherent asymmetry between the vastly different force structure and capabilities of Iranian rocket forces and US Axis air forces. A concluding section predicted the dilemma laid out in WaPo concerning a grand Pentagon evaluation of its force posture in the Middle East: By all available evidence, the Iranian debasification campaign appears to be working. The US force in the region is likely incapable of generating the same combat power in its air operations against Iran as it could when the war started, and things are trending ever further in a negative direction. Even worse, there’s no clear solution on the horizon. The most obvious lever for American planners to pull is to accept more casualties and losses of personnel and airframes, but this is an unprecedented step the modern incarnation of the US military has never faced. "The Iranian debasification campaign appears to be working. The US force in the region is likely incapable of generating the same combat power in its air operations against Iran as it could when the war started, and things are trending ever further in a negative direction.… — Alex Shams (@alexshams_) July 21, 2026 What's worse is that the Iranians know all of this full well - and probably earlier than the Western public - and they smell blood in the water. Hence, this week they've been strongly signaling a new 'offensive' military posture, and have vowed to hit harder in whatever next waves of conflict come. So will the US rebuild bases battered by Iranian strikes? Well, Tehran is now saying that in essence it won't let that happen. The WaPo article operates under the illusory assumption that US planners have some big array of options set before them, when increasingly American forces are in obvious retreat and no one can do anything about it. Also, what happened to Pete Hegseth's rah rah Epic Fury press briefings on all the 'winning' and chest-thumping? It's been a while. Tyler Durden Tue, 08/18/2026 - 15:25

Actors involved

USIsraelIran

Sources

  • Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

    Pentagon Weighing Permanent Smaller US Presence In Gulf (Just Don't Call It Retreat) Already US officials have signaled they may just abandon hard-hit bases in the Middle East altogether, in the wake of Iran's retaliation as a result of Operation Epic Fury, and a con

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranRussia
1 source

MOSCOW, August 19. /TASS/. The conflict in the Middle East could result in the disappearance of Israel, Lieutenant General Apty Alaudinov, deputy chief of the Russian Armed Forces’ Main Military-Political Department and commander of the Akhmat special forces unit, told TASS.

"We must realize that the war in the Middle East will only escalate. I believe that is precisely Israel’s objective to ramp up the conflict as much as possible and drag both the US and the entire NATO bloc into it. They are good at this. Ultimately, they will overestimate their strength and cease to exist as a state," he said.

The United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon. However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

On August 2, US President Donald Trump stated that he had agreed to call off a planned massive strike on Iran in order to reach a deal with the Islamic Republic, adding that Tehran and Arab capitals had asked the US to refrain from attacking as the parties had agreed on the outlines of a future agreement.

Location: Israel
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
1 source

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said no talks were taking place with Iran and insisted the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting Iran's assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping. The receding prospects of a deal to end the nearly six-month conflict drove up oil prices again on Tuesday, while stock markets sagged and borrowing costs for major economies including the US hit multi-decade highs, amid concerns about the long-term inflationary and fiscal impact of the crisis.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a "fully offensive" military posture due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday.

"There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. "The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated," he added.

On Monday, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had struck an upbeat tone, saying talks with Iran were still under way and were "probably more robust" than they had ever been. The nearly six-month conflict, which began with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran, has settled into a stand-off, with Iran continuing to threaten shipping in the strait and Washington saying it could renew attacks if talks do not yield a long-term settlement.

Among the top US goals are preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, but experts say that will be difficult without removing the enriched uranium believed to be buried at sites struck by the US military previously. Despite Trump's assertions that the situation in the Gulf was improving, countries continued to report attempts to disrupt shipping.

The United Arab Emirates' Defence Ministry said that it detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, the first such incident reported since a May 4 strike on the Fujairah port. It later reported that the missiles were targeting "maritime traffic" based on its assessments, according to a statement posted on X.

It said both missiles fell into the sea. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei rejected the comments and said the UAE's "accusations" were "baseless." The UAE Foreign Ministry said it had suspended all trade activities, exchanges and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, citing regional escalation that it said undermined regional and international peace and security.

Direct cargo shipping between the UAE and Iran had only resumed in late June via Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port. The UAE had suspended direct shipping in early March, just days after the war began. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while sailing out through the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty.

The Omani Coast Guard was assisting the remaining crew, according to the report. There was no immediate comment from Tehran. Preliminary shipping data on Tuesday showed ship crossings via the Strait of Hormuz were still in single digits on Monday. Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in comments published by state media that the strait would remain shut until the US met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June.

These conditions include the US ending its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Ghalibaf told parliament. A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day time frame for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear programme and US sanctions.

That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. The agreement, which declared the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts," had quickly unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war.

Iran remains open to dialogue with the US but does not confuse negotiations with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Mokhber said military pressure and sanctions would not break Iran's resolve and that the country would defend its security, dignity and allies while not seeking war.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIranRussiaUkraine
1 source

WASHINGTON (AP) — On the same day it invaded Ukraine in 2022, Russia disabled thousands of satellite modems across Ukraine and other European countries, aiming to disrupt communications. A new AI-assisted tool aims to help close that kind of vulnerability amid concerns about continued Russian aggression and newer Iranian threats to cyber infrastructure.

The cybersecurity company Atalanta has released “Argo” — a product that includes the technology that was instrumental in securing Viasat's satellite communications network after the Russian hacking attack. Industry experts say it presents a new capability for those trying to defend critical systems in the emerging cyberwarfare theater.

Atalanta’s leaders say the new technology relies on what it calls “software understanding,” combining complex mathematics along with artificial intelligence technology to create the first commercially available system that can analyze software and internet-connected systems for vulnerabilities in a more comprehensive manner.

The conflicts in both Ukraine and Iran have highlighted the danger that hackers can pose to everyday life. This summer several government agencies have warned that Iranian hackers have been targeting water and wastewater systems, among other critical infrastructure.

“The tools and techniques of yesterday do not scale for today and ‘software understanding’ is going to be the path forward for anyone building a system of consequence for the United States,” Atalanta CEO and co-founder Anjana Rajan told The Associated Press.

Viasat’s chief of cyber strategy, Nick Saunders, said the new technology not only ensures that the Viasat network is hardened against future attacks but produces the math that backs up that claim. “We have built over the past year, working with Atalanta ...

a capability where we can start to develop an understanding of how our systems are more resilient against attacks,” Saunders said. Atalanta's technology has also been tapped to work on the Genesis Mission — the Department of Energy’s effort to create autonomous nuclear reactors.

Greg Shannon, the chief cybersecurity scientist at the government’s Idaho National Laboratory, said the kind of technology that Atalanta is making available will likely eventually become the standard for testing any new capability. “In a decade or two, I would expect it to be just part of the standard development tool kits,” Shannon added.

Shannon noted that the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency, or DARPA, has been investing billions in this technology for a couple of decades. This investment helped create the demand for a system like Argo. DARPA is the military’s cutting-edge research office, which also helped pioneer technologies such as the internet and stealth aircraft.

“They’ve probably invested well over $2 billion in various programs to advance formal methods ... and we’re finally seeing them start to come to fruition,” Shannon said. Last year, Emil Michael, the Pentagon’s chief technology officer, told a DARPA software conference in a prerecorded address that he saw the mathematics underpinning Atalanta's technology as the future of the military and he wanted it to “become the DoD’s gold standard" for cybersecurity.

Location: Iran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
1 source

Advertisement Middle East Crisis US-Iran War Live: US weighs troop pullback from Gulf following damage in Iran war, report says New Delhi,UPDATED: Aug 19, 2026 02:00 IST US-Iran War Live Updates: US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks with Iran were taking place or scheduled, while insisting that the Strait of Hormuz remained open.

"There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated," Trump said on Truth Social.

Iran, however, maintained that the waterway would remain closed until Washington met conditions under an interim deal signed in June, including lifting the blockade on Iranian ports, removing oil sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets and ending military operations.

The conflicting claims came as Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and special envoy, said on Monday that US-Iran contacts were "probably more robust than it's maybe ever been". Meanwhile, the UAE said it detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, which it assessed were targeting "maritime traffic".

Both missiles fell into the sea, according to the UAE Defence Ministry. Iran did not immediately comment. The incident was reported as a 60-day window for US-Iran peace talks expired without a breakthrough, raising fears of renewed escalation and further disruption to shipping through Hormuz.

The UAE had also recently accused Iran of attacking ADNOC vessels transiting the strait, although Tehran has not claimed responsibility. Follow indiatoday.in for live updates....Read More (Photo: X/@CENTCOM) 2 Aug 19, 2026 02:00 IST US Iran war: US weighs troop pullback from Gulf after Iran war damage, report says The US Defense Department is considering reducing its military presence in the Persian Gulf after its bases and facilities sustained damage during the war with Iran, The Washington Post reports.

The conflict has given Washington a “once-in-a-generation chance” to reassess its long-term military footprint in the Gulf, according to the report. One option under consideration is moving some US troops and military facilities further west, including to Jordan and Israel.

American refuelling aircraft have been stationed in Israel during the war. Aug 19, 2026 01:59 IST Middle East crisis: Here's what happened so far - US-Iran talks: Trump said no talks with Iran are underway or scheduled. - Trump on Hormuz: He said the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating, while the US naval blockade remains in force.

- Iran’s position: Top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Hormuz will remain closed until US demands under the June interim deal are met. - Iran’s demands: Tehran wants the US to lift the blockade on its ports, remove oil sanctions, unfreeze Iranian assets and end military operations.

- Kushner’s account: Jared Kushner said on Monday that US-Iran contacts were “probably more robust than it’s maybe ever been.” - Talks stalled: A senior Iranian official said Tehran would shift to a “fully offensive” military posture as efforts to reach a permanent deal have stalled.

- UAE missile alert: The UAE said it detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran. - Missiles fell at sea: The UAE Defence Ministry said both missiles fell into the sea and were assessed to have been targeting “maritime traffic.” - No Iranian claim: Iran has not immediately commented on the UAE's missile allegation.

- 60-day window expires: The missile incident followed the expiry of a 60-day window for US-Iran peace talks on Monday without a breakthrough. - UAE all-clear: The UAE earlier told residents the situation was safe and asked them to resume normal activities after the missile warning.

- ADNOC vessels: The UAE has accused Iran of attacking its state-owned ADNOC vessels transiting Hormuz. Iran has not claimed responsibility for those attacks.

Location: Iran