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strikeSep 2, 2026

The West's Answer To Break China's Tungsten Stranglehold Before Historic Rearmament Cycle Ramps

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The West's Answer To Break China's Tungsten Stranglehold Before Historic Rearmament Cycle Ramps New reports emerged late Tuesday during the US cash session that the US military had struck targets inside Iran. If confirmed, the operation would mark a rare instance of US strikes occurring during regular market hours. Market(ing) tactics aside, the now six-month military campaign against Iran has also exposed a critical operational vulnerability: the US military is facing an alarming shortage of advanced missiles and interceptors. However, the crisis extends well beyond procuring replacement missiles from major defense firms. The deeper vulnerability lies farther upstream, where the rare earths and critical materials required for guidance systems, seekers, propulsion components, warheads, and interceptors remain scarce and heavily concentrated in China, even as Beijing increasingly weaponizes export controls of metals against the West.  On Monday, the Department of War said it had secured seven-year agreements with General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems and Lockheed Martin to rapidly expand US missile-production capacity and replenish depleted inventories. The agreements are intended to increase output and accelerate deliveries of critical missile subcomponents supporting the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptor. A separate report from AP News highlighted another driver of defense demand: the US Army's new Precision Strike Missile, or PrSM, is intended to replace the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has served as the service's primary deep-strike weapon for decades. The PrSM's fragmentation warhead requires large quantities of tungsten pellets. Tungsten is extremely effective as a penetrator because it combines one of the highest densities of any metal with the highest melting point. When a PrSM warhead detonates above its target, thousands of small, lethal tungsten pellets are dispersed at extreme speeds. The metal's density and ability to retain its shape enable those fragments to penetrate building walls, vehicle panels, equipment housings, and many forms of advanced armor after the initial blast wave has dissipated like a shotgun blast.  This is where the DoW's historic weapons rearmament cycle collides with a critical materials supply crisis spreading across the Western world. The State Department and DoW already understand the vulnerability. Tungsten, one of the most strategically important metals used across the defense-industrial base, is entering what investment research firm The Oregon Group has described as a major structural supply crisis. A frantic effort is now underway across the West to secure non-Chinese tungsten. China accounted for about 79% of global mined tungsten production in 2025 and controls roughly 85% of refining capacity. Meanwhile, Chinese mine output has dropped 10% year over year, even as Beijing restricted tungsten exports to Western markets since early 2025. The Oregon Group highlighted one of the clearest warnings yet: Even if every announced tungsten project ex-China reaches production by 2030, the global market could still face a massive structural deficit. "Eleven announced mine projects are forecast to add nearly 20,000 tonnes of annual capacity by 2030, lifting accessible ex-China supply to an estimated 34,000 tonnes WO₃, against projected primary demand of roughly 50,000 tonnes after recycling, which would leave the market facing a deficit of 16,000 tonnes WO₃," the research firm stated in a new report. #Tungsten prices surged 310% from Jan-July as China export controls squeezed supply. And, by 2030, ex-China primary mine supply still projected to be in deficit by 16,000 tonnes. 📣 Tungsten price shock signals deeper supply crisishttps://t.co/enxErVsINb #mining #invest pic.twitter.com/ooovQTqibw — The Oregon Group (@TheOregonGroup) August 31, 2026 That tightening physical market picture brings us to Almonty Industries, which controls the Sangdong mine in South Korea, one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside China, as well as Panasqueira Mine in central Portugal, which is considered one of Europe's largest and oldest continuously operating tungsten and tin mines.  With Sangdong ramping toward full production, Almonty has transitioned from a junior mining company into an increasingly important supplier to the Western defense-industrial base, one which is on the radar of the Trump administration.  At planned Phase II capacity, Sangdong could produce roughly 4,000 tons of tungsten annually. That would represent about 4% to 5% of global mine production and around 20% of current tungsten output outside China. In its latest investor deck, Almonty said it is "targeting to become the leading Western producer of tungsten by reaching expected full-scale production after completion of Sangdong Phase II and the Panasqueira L4 extension" by mid-2027. Almonty CEO Lewis Black has previously said, "Almonty controls one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside of China at precisely the moment Western governments and defense manufacturers are rebuilding their critical-minerals supply chains around non-Chinese sources." The timing of Sangdong's planned move toward full-scale production by mid-2027 is significant because the DoW's supply clock is already ticking. The West's effort to break China's stranglehold over critical materials is colliding with a historic military rearmament cycle. Tungsten demand extends well beyond defense, including as a critical building block in AI chips (read here).  That convergence places Almonty at the center of the emerging conflict-free tungsten supply chain and could transform Sangdong and Panasqueira mines into one of the world's most important sources of non-Chinese tungsten. Almonty is one of the handful of pure-play publicly traded miners positioned for the accelerating decoupling from Chinese critical materials . Among all publicly traded global tungsten miners, it's the only US-listed producer.  Any post-Trump-Xi summit escalation next month, including potential sanctions against Chinese banks (Politico warns), could trigger further metal restrictions and sharply increase the value of tungsten currently priced above $3,000 a ton.  That makes Almonty more than a tungsten trade. Almonty is a pure-play bet on the West's first real shot at breaking China's 79% grip on mined tungsten before the rearmament cycle ramps up and before further possible export controls turn an already tight market into a severe shortage. Sangdong is already producing, Phase II begins next year, and the balance sheet is funded. This is a concentrated bet that one producer can help break Beijing's grip and become the swing supplier the US and its allies can rely on. And in a preview of what is to come, Jefferies just initiated coverage (full report available to pro subscribers) on Almonty today with a Buy rating and a $26.25 price target, more than 50% upside from today's price.  Tyler Durden Wed, 09/02/2026 - 12:40

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  • Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

    The West's Answer To Break China's Tungsten Stranglehold Before Historic Rearmament Cycle Ramps New reports emerged late Tuesday during the US cash session that the US military had struck targets inside Iran. If confirmed, the operation would mark a rare instance of

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United States Navy aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln made port in eastern Thailand in the crew’s first port call after nine and a half months at sea, following a taxing deployment in the Middle East amid reports of supply issues, deteriorating mental health conditions and low morale on board.

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CAIRO (AP) — A U.S. missile hit a home in southern Iran where dozens were gathered to celebrate the wedding of a fisherman’s daughter, according to a rights group and Iranian media. Iranian state media said four people — two women and two children — were killed and more than 60 were wounded.

The rights group said one of the children, a teenager, was killed by another strike on a nearby communications tower. Heavy explosions shook the coastal town of Kuhestak on the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and security footage carried by Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency showed fireballs lighting up the night sky.

It came amid the latest round of American bombardment in southern Iran that the U.S. military said was targeting air defenses, radar systems and maritime assets. Kuhestak is one of a string of small towns that dot the barren coastline along the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that has become a central front in the six-month war.

Kuhestak is located about 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the town of Minab, where more than 100 children were killed in a U.S. missile strike that hit a primary school on Feb. 28, the opening day of the war launched by the U.S. and Israel.

U.S. Central Command spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins said the U.S. military was looking into the reports of the strike on a wedding. He would not say if the military had launched a formal investigation. Little information has come out of the remote area.

This is what we know so far. A missile smashed into the wedding party At least one missile hit the home of Ali Mallahi, a fisherman who at the time was celebrating the wedding of his daughter, state media said. “The missile completely destroyed the ceiling of the house,” Mallahi said in an interview with state TV as he pointed to the hole.

He said a neighboring house that shares the same yard was hit by another missile. Like most of the town's population, Mallahi belongs to Iran’s Baluch ethnic minority. There was no immediate video footage of the moment of impact. But videos aired by Iranian media showed a crater, and walls and the roof of the building heavily damaged, with a smashed car nearby and debris — including wedding guests' shoes — scattered around.

Four people were killed and dozens wounded, according to state media The state news agency IRNA and state TV said two women and two children, aged 4 and 16, were killed, and at least 68 were wounded. Just after the strike, Ahmad Nafisi, the province’s deputy governor, had told Iranian state television that five people were killed.

There was no explanation for the change. At the hospital in Minab where wounded people were taken, Iranian media showed at least two girls and a woman in bandages. One of the children looked like she was still in shock. A man at the hospital with bandages on his head and arm said he was heading to the wedding when he heard jets overhead.

The explosion hit as he arrived. “Blocks were falling and hitting people’s heads. And many small children and women that were there were terribly injured. So many,” he said in a video posted by the Iranian Red Crescent, which did not identify him.

The nearby port was also targeted Also hit in the round of strikes was a communications tower at Kuhestak’s port, about 100 meters (yards) from Mallahi’s house, according to state media. At least two missiles hit the communications tower and another hit a pier at the port, Moein Arjomand, director of the Balochistan Human Rights Documentation Network, told the AP, citing witnesses who spoke to his group.

The group, which maintains contacts with Baluch communities in Iran, said the 16-year-old was killed by shrapnel as he rode his motorcycle near the communications tower, rather than at the wedding as reported by Iranian media. Separately, Iran has said four members of its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and 10 members of the Guard’s volunteer Basij forces were killed in the latest round of U.

S. attacks. A total of 108 people were wounded, according to state media. Experts say fragments point to a ‘very precise’ weapon Two weapons experts told The Associated Press that images of fragments of a missile, which Iranian media said was used in the strike on Mallahi’s home, were from a U.

S.-made SLAM-ER cruise missile. Trevor Ball, a weapons analyst at Armament Research Services, said the SLAM-ER was “developed as a very precise weapon” that can be retargeted in flight by a human operator watching by infrared camera.

N.R. Jenzen-Jones, the group's director, said a fin fragment was distinctive to an upgraded SLAM-ER, an air-launched missile manufactured by Boeing with a range of more than 270 kilometers (168 miles). The missile is also used by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, he said.

Iran has repeatedly attacked both countries during the war, but neither has reported carrying out any recent strikes on Iran. Central Command declined to comment on the analysts' findings. ___ El Deeb reported from Beirut.

Associated Press writers Amir-Hussein Radjy in Zurich, Fatma Khaled in Cairo and Konstantin Toropin in Nuremberg, Germany, contributed.