מעקב משבר איראן-המפרץ 2026
CC
Events Archive
strikeMay 27, 2026

Trump can’t sell the Abraham Accords on a Middle East that has lost trust in the US

Summary

As the US and Iran try to come to terms on a peace deal to end their months-long war, US President Donald Trump this week has introduced a new demand – that other countries in the Middle East sign on to his Abraham Accords, normalising relations with Israel. There are reasons for this. The US and Israel are militarily, strategically and economically weaker than they were on the eve of launching “Operation Epic Fury”, their joint military operation against Iran, in late February. Their carefully built-up alliances with Persian Gulf countries are now being reevaluated, given these ties didn’t prevent Gulf states from being attacked by Iran. And Iran – despite losing many political and military leaders in months of devastating strikes – seems more powerful than ever. In this context, both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu desperately need a symbolic victory they can sell to their respective electorates before the US midterm elections and Knesset elections later this year. This partially explains why Trump is trying to re-invigorate the Abraham Accords, which he has long touted as one of the biggest foreign policy successes of his first term in office. In a phone call over the weekend with regional partners, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan, he insisted their inclusion in any Iran deal depended on all joining the accords. This means establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. Read more: After the Iran war, Persian Gulf nations face tough decisions on the US – a former diplomat explains What are the Abraham Accords? The Abraham Accords were part of a package of diplomatic initiatives overseen by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, during Trump’s first term. The accords were an attempt to “solve” the long-running Palestinian-Israeli and broader Arab-Israeli conflicts. Since the first Arab-Israeli War and Israel’s creation in the 1940s, the question of Palestine has plagued the Arab world. It remains the most important political concern of the public in Arab countries today, despite growing disinterest from many Arab leaders. With the assistance of the US, Israel has, over the decades, slowly chipped away at the collective Arab opposition to its illegal presence in the occupied Palestinian territories. This started with its peace agreements with Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994 and continued with the Abraham Accords. Before the accords were signed in 2020, the Trump administration moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, closed the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s Washington office and declared that the US no longer viewed Israeli West Bank settlements as illegal. Then, in 2020, Trump and Netanyahu launched the Peace to Prosperity Plan. While past peace efforts had at least gestured towards Palestinian participation, this one promised economic development at the expense of Palestinian statehood. The UAE and Bahrain then signed onto the Abraham Accords in September 2020, followed by Morocco in December 2020, Sudan in January 2021 and then Kazakhstan in November 2025. There were many carrots offered to these countries in exchange for recognising Israel, largely economic, military and diplomatic agreements. For example, the UAE secured advanced weapons and military technology from the US. And Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara was recognised by the US and Israel. Would any countries join now? The jewel in the crown, however, has always been Saudi Arabia. This was purportedly a key driver behind the timing of Hamas’ attacks on Israel in October 2023. The group was desperate to derail normalisation talks between the two. Since Israel’s devastating retaliatory war on Gaza began, Saudi Arabia has been a prominent advocate of Palestinian statehood. It has publicly refused to sign the accords without firm guarantees of Palestinian self-determination. The remaining regional powers, such as Pakistan, Qatar and Turkey, must take account of their restive populations, who are overwhelmingly supportive of Palestinian self-determination. The US would have to apply significant pressure and offer large carrots for any of them to be persuaded to change course. Pakistan, in fact, has already rejected Trump’s demands and Saudi Arabia is likely to follow. So, while it might make sense to link Iran and Palestine together through a regional peace agreement, the Abraham Accords are simply too toxic in their current form for most countries to entertain. The region is looking for its own solutions But this won’t stop Trump and Netanyahu from trying to press their case. If Israel can get other nations on board, Netanyahu can craft a narrative around closer regional ties as he continues Israel’s destruction and occupation of southern Lebanon in its fight against Hezbollah. This would still be a paltry prize compared to its long-desired aim of removing the Iranian threat altogether. And it may not alleviate the growing pushback he is facing from an increasingly overstretched army. Closer ties with Arab countries would also not offset the rapid erosion of regional public opinion against Israel. Such negative views are now widely entertained even among Trump’s MAGA base. The Trump Administration also needs a win. It is reeling from its latest Middle East misadventure: - its weapons stocks are massively depleted - the global energy shock is fuelling domestic discontent - its Gulf allies are questioning the US security umbrella - and it faces Israeli reluctance to any Iran peace deal. But in a region undergoing a dramatic strategic reconfiguration, the Abraham Accords are increasingly seen as a US-imposed framework. Some countries are trying to reshape the region in ways that would benefit them instead. Most notably, Saudi Arabia has reportedly floated a regional non-aggression pact (including Iran) along the lines of Europe’s Helsinki Accords that aimed to ease Cold War tensions in Europe. Perhaps Trump is trying to re-invigorate the Abraham Accords as a way to counter the Saudi move. Undoubtedly, he is also trying to appease Netanyahu. The silence his demand has received, however, may indicate the region is no longer amenable to US persuasion, no matter how big the carrots are.

Perspectives

Iranian Official

The Iranian government condemns the US president's latest demands as continued foreign aggression and interference in regional sovereignty, seeking to impose the Abraham Accords and normalize ties with the Zionist regime under the guise of peace talks. Despite the unprovoked "Operation Epic Fury" assault by the US and Israel, which targeted Iranian leaders and territory, the Islamic Republic has upheld its resistance and stands stronger, forcing aggressors to seek symbolic concessions amid their weakening position. Iran will reject any deal that compromises its independence or regional autonomy.

Israeli

From an Israeli security perspective, Trump's push to expand the Abraham Accords represents a critical defensive necessity against Iran's entrenched proxy networks and resilient threat posture, which have only intensified despite joint operations like Epic Fury. With Gulf alliances strained by Tehran's attacks and Israel's strategic position weakened, normalization with key Arab states is essential to counter the existential Iranian menace and secure a united front before regional elections. This symbolic diplomatic victory could bolster deterrence where military gains alone have fallen short.

Neutral

US President Donald Trump has proposed that any agreement between the US and Iran include commitments by other Middle Eastern states to normalize relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords. The condition was reportedly conveyed in recent calls with countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan. Claims regarding shifts in military or strategic positions since late February operations, or the motivations tied to upcoming elections, remain unverified in the available information.

Western

President Trump has conditioned any final US-Iran peace framework on expanded Arab participation in the Abraham Accords, requiring normalization with Israel to strengthen a durable anti-Iran coalition. This demand advances core strategic objectives by reinforcing alliances that can deter future Iranian aggression and deliver measurable diplomatic gains ahead of key elections. It reflects calibrated efforts to neutralize threats and restore deterrence following Operation Epic Fury.

Pro-Peace

Amid the push for a peace deal to halt the months-long US-Iran war, President Trump’s demand that regional states join the Abraham Accords risks derailing talks and prolonging the conflict’s devastating toll on civilians, including thousands of deaths, mass displacement, and destroyed infrastructure from joint US-Israeli strikes. Rather than layering new political conditions onto fragile diplomacy, inclusive negotiations without preconditions offer a clearer path to de-escalation and reduced humanitarian suffering. Prioritizing such alternatives could spare further lives while addressing the war’s root costs.

Global South

US President Trump's push to tie any Iran peace deal to Middle Eastern states joining the Abraham Accords exposes neo-colonial coercion, pressuring sovereign nations like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others to normalize ties with Israel in exchange for relief from regional conflict. This demand arises as US-Israel alliances falter after their joint strikes on Iran failed to curb Tehran's influence, highlighting how Western powers exploit institutional weaknesses to mask their declining leverage. Such maneuvers undermine independent diplomacy across the Global South, prioritizing US electoral optics over genuine regional sovereignty.

Actors involved

USIsraelIranProxy

Sources

  • Michelle Burgis-KasthalaBy Michelle Burgis-Kasthala

    As the US and Iran try to come to terms on a peace deal to end their months-long war, US President Donald Trump this week has introduced a new demand – that other countries in the Middle East sign on to his Abraham Accords, normalising relations with Israel. There are reasons for

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
1 source

The U.S. and Iran are back to bombing every day in a bid to control the Strait of Hormuz. And neither is backing down, showing the limitations of President Donald Trump’s reliance on escalating airstrikes to bend Tehran to his will. While the Trump administration says it is open to diplomacy, Iran so far has refused to loosen its grip over the crucial oil shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf.

It is raising questions about the strategy for the conflict's next phase. The intensifying attacks have collapsed an interim ceasefire deal, killed more American troops and sent U.S. gasoline prices back up, posing more problems for Republicans hoping to get reelected.

The Latest: Seeking calm for his country, Lebanon’s president will meet with Trump at the White House The landmark meeting between Joseph Aoun and Trump comes as Lebanon and Israel continue to hold rare direct talks mediated by Washington in a bid to bring about long-term calm in Lebanon after months of war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group.

Lebanon hopes the talks will lead to Israeli troops withdrawing from large swaths of southern Lebanon, and for the Lebanese military to receive support to assert full control in areas where Hezbollah militants had held sway. Lebanon and Israel announced a “framework agreement” on June 26, setting a plan for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon as well as the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Aoun is scheduled to arrive at the White House at 11 a.m. Trump’s Justice seeking phone records of reporters’ mother and spouses Subpoenas for phone records of New York Times reporters now include the mother of one journalist and the spouses of two others as the Justice Department seeks to unmask the confidential sources of reporters who wrote about Trump’s Qatari-gifted Air Force One jet.

The Times’ lawyers have moved to quash the subpoenas, noting that the mother in question is a mental health professional with confidential client relationships and that one of the two spouses is the general counsel of a law firm. The Justice Department has previously said that the reporters are not the targets of the investigation and asserted in a new legal filing Tuesday that it had followed its own protocols in issuing the subpoenas.

U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian is scheduled to hear arguments Thursday. Appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to withhold recordings and transcripts of ghostwriter interviews The appellate panel’s 2-1 ruling late Monday found “substantial” public interest in disclosing what former President Joe Biden wants to keep under wraps.

Redactions to the recordings would help protect Biden’s privacy, the majority noted. The judges suspended their decision until Aug. 3 to allow more time for Biden to consider another appeal. Mark Zwonitzer, who worked with Biden on his two memoirs, interviewed the Democrat at his home in 2016 and 2017, before his presidency.

Biden’s lawyers say the conversations were candid, personal and intended to remain private. The recordings were obtained by special counsel Robert Hur, who investigated Biden’s handling of classified documents from his time as a senator from Delaware and as vice president.

Republicans demanded the material after Hur declined to file charges against the then-president. Civilian infrastructure now targeted by both the US and Iran Both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

Kuwait’s Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy Ministry said Tehran struck desalination and power plants for a fourth straight day on Monday night, causing fires and damage. Some 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water comes from desalination, making the attacks a matter of life and death for the tiny nation.

U.S. strikes have been hitting electrical equipment in Iran as well, and Iranian officials also have said Americans targeted water facilities. US command says its broad strikes are in response to Iran’s attacks on shipping The U.

S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in across six different provinces. Tanker attacks expand, forcing crew to abandon ship Traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd’s List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Iranian official meets mediators in Pakistan as attacks rage An Iranian official began meetings Tuesday with mediators in Pakistan as diplomats sought to salvage the collapsed interim deal between Iran and the United States, even as both countries continued to launch attacks for a 10th day of renewed fighting.

The visit by Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni comes as Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the deal. However, it remains unclear just what new arrangement could be reached to end the fighting.

Momeni met Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, according to two officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations. Momeni later met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Pakistan’s political leadership and Munir, who serves as both the chief of army staff and defense forces, have worked to persuade the United States and Iran back to resume negotiations.

— By Munir Ahmed The limits of intensifying attacks emerge as US and Iran dig in The U.S. and Iran are back to bombing every day in a bid to control the Strait of Hormuz. And neither is backing down, showing the limitations of President Donald Trump’s reliance on escalating airstrikes to bend Tehran to his will.

While the Trump administration says it is open to diplomacy, Iran so far has refused to loosen its grip over the crucial oil shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf. It is raising questions about the strategy for the next phase of the conflict as intensifying attacks have collapsed an interim ceasefire deal, left additional American troops dead and sent U.

S. gasoline prices back up — posing new problems for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Even with glimmers of hope for talks, the sides could be headed back to all-out war, with Trump warning that “every time Iran kills an American Soldier” going forward, “they will pay for that killing many times over.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
1 source

The head of the International Energy Agency stated on July 21 that escalation in Middle East hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy infrastructure has heightened supply security concerns, while noting that markets retain cushioning factors including higher exports and alternative routing of Saudi and UAE crude.

He also cited threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as an additional risk. Reports indicate that Houthi declarations regarding potential Red Sea port blockades and shipping attacks prompted a restrained initial market response amid ongoing mediation references by Iran.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
1 source

U.S. forces struck targets across southern and western Iran Tuesday after President Donald Trump vowed retaliation for the deaths of American troops, while Tehran hit U.S. bases in the Gulf and a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia Monday, opening a potential new front in the war and raising the threat to global energy supplies and trade beyond the Gulf.

Shipping companies loading or discharging cargo at Saudi ports could be targeted "in any location" by Houthis, according to an email sent to companies Monday, Reuters reported. Oil prices gained nearly 2% on the escalating cycle of attacks that has all but wrecked an interim peace agreement signed last month.

But signs that Tehran and Washington want to resume diplomacy helped to limit price rises. U.S. Central Command said it had hit Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems in its latest round of strikes.

Explosions were heard around the city of Shiraz in southern Iran, state media said. Konarak and Chabahar on the southern coast, the city of Khorramabad and a civilian site outside the city of Abdanan, both in the west, all came under attack, media reports said.

Later, the IRNA news agency quoted an official in Khorramabad as saying no enemy attack had taken place there. At least 50 civilians have been killed and 500 wounded in the recent U.S. strikes on Iran, a Health Ministry official said. As hostilities spread across the region, the U.

S. State Department issued a new "worldwide caution" for Americans due to "heightened tensions in the Middle East." Iran launched renewed attacks across the Gulf, where recent strikes on desalination facilities have raised concerns about water shortages.

Attacks on Kuwaiti power generation and water desalination plants Monday caused several generation units to be taken out of service as a precautionary measure and repairs were underway, authorities said. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted infrastructure in Bahrain belonging to U.

S. tech company Amazon in response to what they described as a U.S. strike on the construction site of Iran's planned Darkhovin nuclear power plant. Iranian state media reported that Iranian forces also targeted accommodation facilities of U.S. military personnel at Bahrain's Sheikh Isa Air Base.

There was no immediate comment from the U.S. military, Bahrain or Amazon on the reported incidents, which Reuters was unable to verify. The Iranian army said it launched drone attacks against three U.S. military bases in Kuwait Tuesday. The Guards said they attacked a U.

S. military site in Jordan, while Jordan said its forces intercepted and destroyed five Iranian drones. The maritime security agency UKMTO said Tuesday a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz reported being struck by a projectile, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel and board a lifeboat.

Also on Tuesday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said two oil tankers had caught fire after explosions while attempting to transit the southern route of the strait. Just four commodity vessels crossed the strait on Monday, mostly using the northern shipping lane near Iran's coast, down from seven the previous day, Kpler data showed.

Iran had been pressing the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea if the U.S. continued to attack Iranian power infrastructure – putting two of the world's most vital energy arteries at risk. A full closure of Bab el-Mandeb could reduce global oil supply by 7% as it would leave most Saudi oil exports unable to leave the region, adding to the 10% cut in oil flows from the war in the Gulf.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day cease-fire in efforts to salvage the interim deal, intended to pave the way to a lasting agreement to end the war that began on Feb. 28 with U.

S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. Israel has not joined the latest round of strikes on Iran. "We have no desire to insert ourselves into this, but we are prepared for any scenario," Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Tuesday. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni had asked Pakistan to resume its mediation role in the conflict.

He later arrived in Islamabad for further talks. The latest phase of fighting has proved to be among the deadliest of the conflict for U.S. forces. U.S. troop deaths rose to 17 over the weekend. Trump, under mounting pressure at home over rising gasoline prices since the war began, said the latest U.

S. strikes on Iran were avenging the deaths of American service members. "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" he wrote on Truth Social on Monday. The war has killed thousands of people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon.

Parts of Lebanon remain under Israeli occupation following attacks on Israel by Hezbollah fighters, who said they were acting in solidarity with Tehran. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is due to meet Trump at the White House on Tuesday to present a plan on how to disarm Iran-aligned Hezbollah and secure an Israeli withdrawal.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
1 source

Brent crude futures rose 1.8% to $90.84 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate contracts gained around 1.7-1.8% on Tuesday. Reports described a tanker struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, with reduced vessel crossings, alongside statements from a UBS analyst citing lower exports and Red Sea concerns, and from an Iranian official to Reuters regarding a proposed 10-day ceasefire.

U.S. and Iranian military actions were also referenced in connection with the events.

Location: Iran