מעקב משבר איראן-המפרץ 2026
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strikeApr 14, 2026

Trump risks backlash from the heartland: the American farmer

Summary

The already fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran appeared to give way over the weekend, after talks in Islamabad collapsed and President Donald Trump ordered a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical node for global energy and commodity flows. Trump said in a Saturday Truth Social post that he was “watching fertilizer prices CLOSELY during our FIGHT FOR FREEDOM in Iran.” “The United States will not accept PRICE GOUGING from the fertilizer monopoly! American Farmers, we have your back,” he added. For the global fertilizer market, uncertainty is already baked in. Even if an agreement is eventually reached and shipping resumes, industry analysts and market participants see little hope for a complete reversal of the sharp price increases and supply disruptions triggered by the war. The six-week-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had widespread effects across the global economy, contributing to an energy crunch that pushed up oil and gas prices and disrupted supply chains. Among the industries most directly affected is fertilizer, which depends heavily on both energy inputs and steady global shipping flows. The disruption is acute for nitrogen fertilizers such as urea. Nearly half of global urea exports originate in countries west of the Strait of Hormuz and depend on the route to reach global markets. Fertilizers like these make up somewhere between 33% and 45% of operating expenses for major American corn and wheat crops, according to nonprofit Family Farm Action. “The price of [dry urea] in January to February was $560 per ton,” Ben Vig, a farmer and former state representative in North Dakota, told Responsible Statecraft. “At the end of March it was $770 per ton.” According to Vig, that amounts to costs of $140 per acre to fertilize wheat and $135 per acre to fertilize corn, an increase of nearly $40 per acre. Even though about three-quarters of the fertilizer used in the United States is produced inside the country, domestic costs are nonetheless dependent on the international market. The United States relies on imports of ingredients (potash, phosphate, nitrogen) used in fertilizers made here, as well as fertilizers themselves, such as ammonia and urea, whose production depends heavily on natural gas. Disruptions to gas supplies and rising energy costs in the gulf are pushing prices even higher for American farmers. "Our biggest struggles are our inputs, be it fertilizer, seed, chemical, parts," one farmer in Nebraska recently told PBS. "There has been so much drastic markup in all of these. And I just kind of feel like the farmer's kind of painted in the corner." The Gulf is not just a transit route but a major production hub for fertilizer tied to the region’s natural gas supplies. During the height of the conflict, key producers were effectively cut off from global markets, while some facilities were forced to slow or halt operations as gas shipments stalled. A group of Democratic lawmakers warned the secretary of agriculture late last month that “the supply side pressure will push prices up even further as nations that are dependent on supply from the Gulf seek alternate sources.” A reopening of the strait would not immediately restore production because facilities may take weeks to restart and ramp up. Because both fertilizer imports and the inputs used to produce it are being disrupted, farmers are facing a tight squeeze, leading to both higher prices and uncertainty over supply. At the same time, even if the conflict pauses in the near future, uncertainty is likely to keep shipping costs elevated, as insurers and vessel operators wait for clearer signs that the region has stabilized. “Prices could ease further into Q2 to Q3 if the ceasefire is extended, though they are likely to remain above 2025 averages due to lost volumes and higher financing and insurance costs,” Deepika Thapliyal, a global fertilizer analyst with the Independent Commodity Intelligence Services, told Farm Progress. “Any breakdown in talks would quickly tighten the urea, ammonia and sulfur supply and lead to more spikes.” The timeline for recovery may not align with the realities of the agricultural season. Even if shipments begin to move again, the structure of the fertilizer supply chain and the timing of the disruption mean relief may not come quickly. “To get product from around the world, we have to put the order in, and once we put the order in, it takes four weeks for a cargo ship to go from one side of the planet to another, and then it all goes to [an import hub in] New Orleans, and it takes three to four weeks from a cargo ship to a barge, and then the barge up the river,” Vig told RS. “So, we’re looking at maybe a seven-week period.” With the Midwest planting season in April and May, some farmers did place their spring orders before the current spike, but many others either locked in fertilizer at elevated prices or cut back orders. Roughly one-quarter of farmers had not placed their orders by early April, according to the Department of Agriculture, and will now be left scrambling to secure supply if shipments resume. As fertilizer prices surge at a critical moment for planting, some lawmakers are becoming increasingly concerned that the disruption could lead to a crisis. “In addition to the needless loss of life in the Middle East, fertilizer and diesel costs are skyrocketing at the beginning of growing season, adding to the struggles farmers have faced since the beginning of President Trump’s second term,” Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), who sits on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, told RS in a statement. “At a time when global food insecurity was already on the rise due to this administration’s aid cuts and climate change, this war threatens to turn global hunger into a full-blown crisis.” Without a sustained de-escalation that restores both production capacity and confidence in global shipping routes, the fertilizer market is likely to remain tight, with the risk that today’s disruption leads to lower crop yields and higher food prices in the months ahead. - Hormuz is not a tool to end the war but how Iran wins the aftermath › - Trump: US to block Hormuz, shooting ourselves & allies in foot ›

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  • Blaise MalleyBy Blaise Malley

    The already fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran appeared to give way over the weekend, after talks in Islamabad collapsed and President Donald Trump ordered a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical node for global energy and commodity fl

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strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
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A tanker identified as the Kaifan was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a July 21 report from UK Maritime Trade Operations. No ships were observed transiting the strait that day. Attribution of the strike and links to prior incidents have not been confirmed by the vessel’s owner.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
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Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.

Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
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Opening summary: Iran claims attacks on strait of Hormuz ships amid fresh US strikes Welcome to our live coverage of the latest developments in the Middle East crisis. Iran attacked a tanker in the strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced they were imposing an immediate maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea after the two sides traded fire last week for the first time in years.

A Houthi official said the Bab al-Mandeb strait – at the southern end of the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s trade usually passes – would be closed to the Saudis in response to the kingdom’s “unjust blockade on Yemenis for over 10 years”.

Saudi Arabia said it would take “all necessary measures to protect its vessels in accordance with international law”. A 10 consecutive night of US airstrikes has not compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies.

But even as Iran’s president said the country had returned “full-scale war”, the Iranian interior minister travelled to Pakistan – a key mediator in the conflict – for talks. In key developments: The latest US strikes came hours after Donald Trump said Iran would pay “many times over” for killing US soldiers after multiple service members were killed in action over the weekend.

A tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the Hormuz strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack as well as two other attacks on ships in the waterway on Monday.

The US military’s Central Command said its latest airstrikes were to “degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the strait and included hitting military command centres and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian media reported strikes in parts of the country including Bandar Abbas, Tabriz and Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational civilian nuclear power.

Iran’s launched attacks in response against Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, which all host US forces. Oil prices softened after hitting their highest levels in more than a month in the previous session. Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $88.87 a barrel by 0052 GMT on Tuesday while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was steady at $82.

47 a barrel. Democrats have seized on the deaths of three US troops killed in Iranian strikes to urge Trump to urgently reverse his resumption of the war with Iran amid widespread anxiety over climbing casualties. The Lebanese army began taking charge of security in three southern villages, the US said, as a deal to secure an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah faced its first test on the ground.