מעקב משבר איראן-המפרץ 2026
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strikeApr 28, 2026

Trump to Iran: Get Serious Or Drown In Your Own Crude; UPDATE: Another Ship Seized

Summary

Has Donald Trump run out of patience? Or has Iran? It depends on whether one talks about strategic or tactical patience – and even then, whether Iran actually has either or just a set of unshakeable delusions. Earlier today, Reuters reported that Trump has reviewed the Iranian proposal to sell him the same missing Persian rug twice, and has rejected it. As noted yesterday, Iran's latest proposal is the same as the current ceasefire agreement that Iran has refused to honor in the first place. They want to open the Strait of Hormuz to all, and push off talks on nuclear weapons until some point in the indeterminate future. Trump already responded briefly yesterday by refusing to send negotiators on this basis. His position hardened even further, Reuters notes: U.S. President Donald Trump is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal on resolving the two-month war, a U.S. official said, dampening hopes for resolution of a conflict that has disrupted energy supplies, fuelled inflation, and killed thousands. Iran's latest proposal would set aside discussion of Iran's nuclear programme until the war, on hold following a ceasefire announced earlier this month, is ended and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved. Trump is unhappy with Iran's proposal as he wants nuclear issues dealt with from the outset, said a U.S. official briefed on the president's Monday meeting with his advisers, speaking on condition of anonymity. Trump got more direct about it behind closed doors, reports Axios' Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo. Trump wants to get a deal done that will extract the regime's stores of highly enriched uranium, but their refusal to negotiate on that point has pushed him to the end of his tactical patience. He is reviewing his options, ranging from standing pat on the blockade to the shock-and-awe campaign he threatened that prompted the first ceasefire agreement: Zoom in: President Trump is vacillating between launching new military strikes or waiting to see whether his "maximum pressure" financial sanctions make Iran more inclined to negotiate an end to its nuclear weapons program, according to five advisers who have spoken with him. - "All [Iran's leaders] understand is bombs," Trump recently told one adviser, who relayed the comment to Axios. - "I would describe him as frustrated but realistic," the adviser said. "He doesn't want to use force. But he's not backing down." Inside the room: Some of Trump's senior advisers want him to maintain the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for now — and impose more economic sanctions to pressure the Iranian regime — before going back to bombing. ... The other side: Trump also is consulting with hawks outside the administration, including Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen, retired Army Gen. Jack Keane and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). All are advising Trump to take some kind of military action to try to break the current deadlock. Ravid and Caputo call this a "cold war," which is hardly applicable. The US and Iran's cold-war phase lasted 46-plus years, with Iran continually conducting provocations and the US sticking mainly to "proportional" responses. This has been a hot war since February 28, and it remains so. Naval blockades and sieges are "hot war" tactics and strategies, even if they are less than satisfying to those observing on a moment-to-moment basis. And in this case, the blockade and siege is doing more damage to the regime than the previous bombings did, in the long-term strategic sense. The media has finally begun to take some notice of the ramifications of the blockade for the regime. Iran's IRGC risks generational damage to its oil industry unless the regime can ship its crude and get empty tankers back to refill: Iran is scrambling to find new ways to store its oil, hoping to avoid a crippling production shutdown as a U.S. naval blockade bottles up its exports and negotiations to end the war remain deadlocked. With oil backing up at home, Iran is reviving derelict sites known as “junk storage,” using improvised containers and trying to ship crude by rail to China. The unusual steps are aimed at delaying an infrastructure crisis and blunting Washington’s leverage in the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. The war between the U.S. and Iran has turned into a race to see whether Tehran’s oil industry or global energy consumers crack first. Every barrel that can’t leave the country through normal export channels must go somewhere: into a tank, onto a ship, into an improvised storage site—or remain underground. ... Shutting production abruptly can damage older oil fields, especially those with low pressure or fragile geology. Around half of Iran’s oil fields have low pressure, leaving them vulnerable to longer-term production losses after stoppages, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy. To be sure, not every production stoppage destroys a well, and Iranian engineers have experience managing production under sanctions. But Iran’s old equipment and mature fields make forced production cuts particularly risky, Iranian oil officials have said[.] Trump suggested on Sunday that Iran had three days left before having to shut down these oil fields. Analysts told the WSJ that Iran may be able to eke out enough junk storage to last a couple of more weeks. The new bid to sell the same Persian rug twice probably indicates that the reality is closer to Trump's estimate. (IRGC media mouthpiece Tasnim claimed two months of room, but YMMV.) That's significant strategic leverage, and Trump seems inclined to stand pat on the blockade at the moment. He wants a successful negotiation and likely hopes that this leverage will eventually produce a change in leadership. Trump hinted at that on Truth Social this morning: Iran has just informed us that they are in a “State of Collapse.” They want us to “Open the Hormuz Strait,” as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!). Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP Trump clearly wants to force power to change hands in Tehran in order to get the "nuclear dust" out as peacefully as possible. He can afford to wait out the regime if he chooses, at least militarily. Politically here at home may present more limitations in time and options. And it does sound as though Trump has come to the conclusion that the only language the IRGC dead-enders understand is bombs, so perhaps his path of least resistance is Shock and Awe II ... or eleven, as Ilhan Omar would say. Update: The blockade is still up and running. The US has seized another ship attempting to escape it: CENTCOM:— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 28, 2026 Earlier today in the Arabian Sea, U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit boarded M/V Blue Star III, a commercial ship suspected of attempting to transit to Iran in violation of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. U.S. forces released the vessel after… pic.twitter.com/9Snhv7Mtvs There are also unconfirmed reports that Iran has presented a new proposal to the Pakistanis. Stay tuned!

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  • Ed MorrisseyBy Ed Morrissey

    Has Donald Trump run out of patience? Or has Iran? It depends on whether one talks about strategic or tactical patience – and even then, whether Iran actually has either or just a set of unshakeable delusions. Earlier today, Reuters reported that Trump has reviewed the Iranian pr

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PARIS: The head of the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday (Jul 21) that renewed fighting in the Mideast increases concerns over energy supplies but that the market still has cushions to absorb the impact. "The escalation in hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure in the region increases security of supply concerns and uncertainty over the market outlook," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

"For the moment, crude oil markets continue to benefit from several cushioning factors," he added, pointing to increased exports from several countries and Saudi and United Arab Emirates oil reaching markets by alternative routes. However, Saudi Arabia's main alternative route of using a pipeline to load tankers in the Red Sea port of Yanbu is under threat as Iran's Yemeni allies, the Houthis, declared they would blockade Saudi Arabia's ports.

Oil markets have for months feared that the Houthis would return to attacking shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden - as they did during the Gaza war - cutting off yet more crude from global markets. The initial market reaction to the announcement by the Houthis was restrained, however, as Iran indicated that mediation efforts were still underway, calming investor jitters.

"Threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become increasingly important as a route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbate these concerns further," said Birol, referring to the narrow passage between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The IEA, in addition to advising its industrialised nation members, also helps them coordinate the release of their strategic oil reserves in reaction to market disruptions.

Birol noted that ongoing government releases from these reserves have provided considerable relief to markets, and that nations continue to hold ample reserves. However, he warned "there is no room for complacency on oil security" and pointed to a drawdown of available commercial inventories, with low refining activity contributing to a tighter supplies of refined oil products like petrol and diesel than for crude oil.

Birol noted that additional supplies of liquefied natural gas from the United States and Canada have offset about 70 per cent of lost supply via the Strait of Hormuz. However, further delays in resuming Gulf exports "will be felt by all LNG importers, including Europe as it looks to refill its gas storage for next winter", he warned.

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.