Summary

Israel would like to see fighting in Iran resume with strikes on energy and infrastructure targets that would significantly weaken the ayatollahs’ regime. But at this stage, Israel and the United States appear to see things differently. President Donald Trump is simply not eager to fully renew the fighting. According to an Israeli source, he now has two options before him: a limited, contained military operation that would not lead to escalation or a temporary agreement that would allow negotiations to continue and the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. A temporary agreement would provide mutual calm that would allow the strait to reopen, but would not resolve all the disputed issues. The assessment in Israel is that Trump does not want, and is not eager, to fully renew the fighting because he believes it would not improve his position and would only complicate matters for him domestically in the United States, with another rise in gas prices and harm to the Gulf states. Israel favors a more aggressive approach, but does not want to be accused of dragging Trump back into the fighting. One possibility being discussed in Washington is that the Americans will opt for a limited military operation and continue the blockade of Hormuz. In such a scenario, the Americans may ask Israel to sit on the sidelines and not intervene, understanding that if Iran launches missiles at Israel, the Israeli response would be severe and lead to a full-blown flare-up of the war. Neither the Iranians nor the Americans have an interest in the war fully resuming, so Israel may remain outside this time. In such a scenario, Iran would likely focus its response to an American strike on targets in the Persian Gulf. But Israel is preparing for all possibilities, including a scenario in which Trump ultimately orders the war to resume and Iran renews missile fire at Israel. The assessment in Israel is that, whatever happens, Trump will wait until he returns from his visit to China early next week. Meanwhile, Qatar is very active in mediation efforts behind the scenes. After the Iranian 14-point proposal was seen in the United States as a joke — or, in Trump’s words, “trash” — there is an effort to improve the Iranian proposal so that some kind of agreement may still be possible. An Israeli official said Qatar has entered the picture very forcefully. In Israel, there is concern that the Americans are talking to the Iranians only about the nuclear issue and Hormuz and are not touching at all on ballistic missiles or proxies. Trump wants to achieve two goals: opening Hormuz and a nuclear agreement that would remove enriched uranium from Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not yet convened a meeting of the Security Cabinet. Netanyahu convened the smaller ministerial forum yesterday, and for now no additional meeting has been scheduled. That also indicates that decisions in the United States are being delayed until after Trump’s visit to Beijing.