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strikeMay 1, 2026

UAE says Iran cannot be trusted over Hormuz strait; Trump threatens to withdraw troops from Spain and Italy

Summary

Main points - US president Donald Trump said he was sticking with a naval blockade of Iranian ports amid concerns the vital Strait of Hormuz could remain closed for months - The Trump administration says hostilities in Iran have ‘terminated’, ahead of an approaching congressional war powers deadline - A senior UAE official said Tehran could not be trusted over any unilateral arrangements it makes for the Strait of Hormuz - Italy and Spain have joined a growing list of countries that Trump is threatening with pulling US troops from Iran crisis hampering aid to refugees as supply chain costs soar, UN warns The cost of sending some aid to Sudan - the world’s largest displacement crisis - has more than doubled since the Iran war disrupted shipping, pushing up transport costs and delaying deliveries, the UN refugee agency said on Friday. Heightened insecurity around key Gulf shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, along with port congestion, rising fuel prices and higher insurance premiums have hampered aid deliveries, particularly to Africa, the agency said. “People in dire need are receiving things that are ready later than what’s needed,” UNHCR spokesperson Carlotta Wolf told reporters in Geneva. Aid shipments that previously travelled from Dubai through the Strait of Hormuz are being rerouted, with supplies moved overland and shipped via Aqaba in Jordan for deliveries to Chad and via Oman for shipments to Port Sudan, she said. These shorter routes are being prioritised because shipping goods via the Cape of Good Hope into Sudan would add about 25 days to delivery times, she added. Transport costs for moving 2,018 metric tons of relief items from Dubai to Sudan and neighbouring Chad via these routes have more than doubled, rising to $1.87 million (€1.59 million) from $927,000 (€789,155), Wolf said. The UN routinely describes the humanitarian crisis caused by Sudan’s war as the world’s largest. - Reuters Iraq starts work on Basra to Haditha oil pipeline, state news agency says Iraq has commenced work on an oil pipeline linking Basra to Haditha with a planned capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day, the state news agency said on Friday citing the oil ministry, as the OPEC producer seeks to expand export routes. About $1.5 billion has been allocated for the project, although its pace will depend on securing further budget allocations, the ministry said. The 700-kilometre pipeline will transport crude for export through multiple routes, including Syria’s Baniyas, Turkey’s Ceyhan and Jordan’s Aqaba, while also supplying refineries along its path, a ministry spokesperson said. On Sunday, prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani chaired a meeting to follow up on the Basra to Haditha pipeline project, approved in 2024, and said it had been conceived as a proactive step anticipating current regional conditions and guarding against potential disruption to existing export routes. Crude exports through the Kirkuk–Ceyhan oil pipeline had resumed in March, after Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government agreed on restarting flows. Baghdad is also working to revamp a disused pipeline that would allow oil to be pumped directly to Turkey’s Ceyhan port without passing through the Kurdistan region. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war has curtailed oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq, sending prices higher. - Reuters Iran sent its latest proposal for negotiations with the United States to Pakistani mediators on Thursday, state news agency IRNA reported on Friday. - Reuters Analysis: How long can Iran survive the US blockade? When the US and Israel launched their war on Iran earlier this year, it was on a country seriously weakened by economic mismanagement, decades of US sanctions, rising inflation, currency depreciation and popular dissent, writes Michael Jansen. The war has, undoubtedly, aggravated Iran’s dire economic problems in recent weeks. Yet, the Islamic Republic looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now, despite a US blockade that has cut off energy exports from Iran’s Gulf ports. Despite heavy damage to infrastructure and industries and a squeeze on oil exports, Iran has plenty of internal supplies, steady trade with its neighbours and, so far, has suffered limited losses caused by the blockade. For the full article, read here. Energy markets remain on edge Financial and energy markets remained on edge because of concerns about the impasse over negotiations and worries that there could be a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose again on Friday, up slightly at over $111 (€94) a barrel and poised for a 5.7 per cent gain over the week after hitting $126 (€107) a barrel on Thursday, the highest level since March 2022. – Reuters UAE says Iran cannot be trusted over Hormuz strait A senior United Arab Emirates official said on Friday Tehran could not be trusted over any unilateral arrangements it makes for the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign of deep mistrust on all sides as efforts to end the Iran war remained at an impasse. Two months into the conflict, the vital sea channel is still largely closed because of an Iranian blockade and the US navy is blocking exports of Iranian crude oil. The blockade has choked off 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas supplies, pushing up global energy prices and increasing concerns that there will be an economic downturn. A ceasefire has been in place since April 8th but reports that Donald Trump was to be briefed on plans for new military strikes to compel Iran to negotiate pushed global oil prices up to a four-year high at one point on Thursday. Iran has activated air defences and plans a wide response if attacked, having assessed that there will be a short, intensive US strike, possibly followed by an Israeli attack, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Washington has not said what its next steps are. Trump said on Tuesday he was unhappy with the latest proposal from Iran, and mediator Pakistan has not set a date for new talks on ending a war that has killed thousands, mainly in Iran and Lebanon. After US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28th, Iran fired at US bases, infrastructure and US-linked companies in Gulf states, while the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel, which responded with strikes on Lebanon. Underlining the concerns of the Gulf states, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the “collective international will and provisions of international law” were the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the strait. “And, of course, no unilateral Iranian arrangements can be trusted or relied upon following its treacherous aggression against all its neighbors,” Gargash wrote. Trump faces a formal US deadline on Friday to end the war or make the case to Congress for extending it under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. The date looks set to pass without altering the course of the war after a senior administration official said that, for the purposes of the resolution, hostilities had terminated due to the April ceasefire between Tehran and Washington. – Reuters Italian defence minister surprised by Trump’s comments Italy’s defence minister Guido Crosetto rejected accusations that Rome has not helped the US, especially in relation to maritime security in the strait of Hormuz. “I don’t understand the reasons,” he told the ANSA news agency. In reference to Trump’s accusations that Europeans have crossed the Strait of Hormuz, he said this isn’t true and “we also made ourselves available for a mission to protect shipping”. “This was greatly appreciated by the American military,” he added. La Repubblica reported there are seven US bases in Italy, with up to 15,000 troops, which for example provide Italy with air defence systems that would take a decade to replace. So far, there has been no public reaction from the Spanish government. But this is not the first time they face similar threats from Trump. Last week, Reuters published an internal Pentagon memo that suggested the US considered suspending Spain from Nato. It’s not entirely clear how this was expected to happen, as there is no obvious procedure to go through and that would allow the US to make that decision without the other allies. There are 3,200 US troops in Spain, mainly at the Rota naval base and the Morónairbase. ‘Spain has been horrible’: Trump threatens to withdraw troops from Spain and Italy Italy and Spain have joined a growing list of countries that Donald Trump is threatening to pull US troops from as part of a broader review of the US military presence in Europe. Responding to a question from a reporter, Trump said he would “probably” consider such a move, linking it to the two countries’ criticism of the US campaign in Iran. “Look, why shouldn’t I? Italy has not been of any help to us and Spain has been horrible, absolutely horrible.” Both countries have been vocally critical of Trump’s war in the Middle East, with the US president repeatedly taking aim at their leadership for refusing to join the conflict. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, previously a close ally, fell out with the US president over Rome’s unwillingness to join the conflict – she “lacked courage,” Trump said – as well as her criticism of Trump’s “unacceptable” comments about Pope Leo. She also denied the use of an airbase in Sicily to US military planes carrying weapons for the war in Iran after the US did not follow the required authorisation procedure. - Guardian Iran warns Trump’s blockade will keep pushing up oil prices US president Donald Trump vowed to maintain a naval blockade on Iran and was briefed by commanders on further military options, according to a report, underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire between the warring countries. Trump reiterated that the blockade of Iranian ports is depriving the Islamic Republic of much-needed oil revenue, claiming the pressure would force Tehran back to the negotiating table. “Good luck blockading a country with those borders,” Iran’s speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on X, referring to his country’s large size. He and other Iranian officials say the blockade, which they insist must be lifted for the sides to go to new talks and for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, will further push up oil prices. The US is pitching allies on a joint naval force to secure the Strait of Hormuz. New Zealand said it had received the proposal but would only support a US-led coalition if a sustainable ceasefire was in place. The effort, called the “Maritime Freedom Construct,” was spelled out in a US state department cable to US embassies on Tuesday that called on diplomats to press foreign governments into signing up, the Wall Street Journal reported. On Thursday, Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, cast doubt on the likelihood of a deal. He gave a rare statement in which he vowed not to give up the country’s nuclear or missile technologies. He also signalled Tehran would keep control of the Hormuz strait. - Bloomberg Oil prices hit wartime high as Iran vows to keep control of Hormuz strait Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed to “prevent the enemy’s abuses” of the Strait of Hormuz and safeguard the country’s nuclear capabilities, after talks with the US reached a stalemate, writes Bita Ghaffari. Oil prices swung wildly on Thursday amid signs that the key waterway could remain closed for an extended period, after US president Donald Trump told oil executives that the blockade on the strait could continue for “months”. Brent crude climbed to its highest level since 2022 – $126 (€107) – before dropping more than $13 as traders fretted they had overreacted to the latest twist in the Iran conflict. About 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas usually passes through the strait and the conflict has sent global energy prices soaring. To read the full article, click here. Hegseth ‘dangerously exaggerated’ US military triumph in Iran, senior Democrat claims Pete Hegseth has failed to give Donald Trump an accurate picture of the war on Iran while resorting to “dangerously exaggerated” statements to create an inaccurate picture of a US military triumph, a senior Democrat told a Capitol Hill hearing on Thursday. Jack Reed, the top-ranking Democrat on the Senate armed services committee, told Hegseth, the defence secretary, that far from victory, US citizens were having to bear the cost of a war they did not support in the form of increased fuel prices. “American families are bearing the cost of a war they wanted nothing to do with and have gained nothing from and yet, secretary Hegseth, you declared victory a month ago,” said Reed, a senator from Rhode Island. The comments came at the opening of the second successive day of congressional testimony from Hegseth and Dan Caine, the chairman of the US armed forces’ joint chiefs of staff, who are testifying over the Pentagon’s record $1.45 trillion military budget submission. Read the full article, here. Charles and Camilla tell US ‘thank you for the warmth of your welcome’ British king Charles and queen Camilla said they have left a piece of their heart behind in the United States in a message to the nation’s people. Their four-day state visit to the US ended on Thursday with an overwhelmingly positive response from US president Donald Trump, who lifted tariffs on Scottish whisky. In a message posted to social media, the couple said: “Farewell and thank you for the warmth of your welcome and the kind support you gave us throughout our first visit to the US as King and Queen, in this, your special anniversary year. “We leave a piece of our [heart emoji] behind and take a little of yours back home with us. Until the next time… God Bless America.” - PA Iran war may cause food shortages in Africa, world’s largest fertiliser firm says The Iran war could have “dramatic consequences”, causing food shortages and price rises in some of Africa’s poorest and most vulnerable communities, the head of the world’s largest fertiliser company has said. Svein Tore Holsether, the chief executive of Yara International, said world leaders needed to guard against soaring prices and shortages of fertiliser causing a de facto global auction that would leave the poorest countries, particularly in Africa, scrambling for supplies they could ill afford. “The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now – that there is a risk of a global auction on fertiliser that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable,” he said. “Africa is actually quite well positioned to be a major food producer, not only for self-sufficiency, but even for exports to the rest of the world, but the reality is that they are massive food importers. “But we need to be aware in this part of the world of the potential consequences that if we get to a global auction on food, there will not be a famine in Europe – but we need to be aware of who we are taking the food away from.” - Guardian ‘Let them play’: Trump gives blessing for Iran to play in World Cup Donald Trump has given his blessing to Iran competing in the US during this summer’s World Cup, stating: “Let them play.” Iran’s participation in the finals has been uncertain since the US and Israel launched air strikes on the country on February 28th. FIFA president Gianni Infantino has repeatedly insisted Iran would play as scheduled, with all three of their group games taking place in the US, and confirmed again at Fifa’s Congress on Thursday that this would be the case. Trump was asked about Infantino’s comments in a media briefing later on Thursday, and said: “Well if Gianni said it, I’m okay. “Did Gianni say it? Gianni Infantino – that’s a piece of work.” Asked what would happen if Iran won, Trump replied: “If they win we’ll have to worry about that. I’m going to have to worry about that one. “You know what, let them play. Gianni is fantastic, he’s a friend of mine, he talked about it, I said, ‘you do whatever you want’. “You can have them, you don’t have to have them, they probably have a good team. Do they have a good team, do you have any idea?” The reporter who posed the initial question said he had no idea. Trump replied: “It would be hard to believe actually. But let them play, right?” Iran would face the US in the last 32 in Dallas if both teams finished second in their respective groups. Trump has previously said it would be “inappropriate” for Iran to play “for their own life and safety”. - Reuters US president hails ‘incredible’ blockade as oil prices surge US president Donald Trump said he was sticking with a naval blockade of Iranian ports amid concerns the vital Strait of Hormuz would not reopen anytime soon. “Their economy is crashing, the blockade is incredible,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “Their economy is a disaster. So we’ll see how long they hold out.” Oil prices steadied after surging on Thursday with little sign that Washington and Tehran were moving closer to an accord, as the US doubled down on a blockade and strident comments from Iran’s new leader. Brent futures initially rose to $126 a barrel — their highest level since the conflict began — before ending the session near $114. Early Friday, Brent for July delivery was trading at about $111 a barrel. Traders are factoring in the possibility of a return to hostilities and a prolonged shutdown of the strait, which is crucial for global oil and gas flows but has been effectively shut since the US and Israel started the war on February 28th. Pump prices across parts of the US are also rising sharply, with the national average at fresh highs and retail petrol in California soaring above $6 a gallon. That’s increasingly becoming a concern for Trump’s Republican party heading into the midterm elections. Trump administration says hostilities in Iran ‘terminated’ A US-Iran ceasefire that began in early April has “terminated” hostilities between the two sides for the purposes of an approaching congressional war powers deadline, a senior official of Donald Trump’s administration said on Thursday. The US president faced a deadline on Friday to end the Iran war or make the case to Congress for extending it, but the date was most likely to pass without altering the course of the war. “For War Powers Resolution purposes, the hostilities that began on Saturday, February 28, have terminated," said the official, describing the administration’s thinking. There has been no exchange of fire between the US armed forces and Iran since a ceasefire began more than three weeks ago, the official added. Earlier, analysts and congressional aides had said they expected Trump to notify Congress that he planned a 30-day extension or to disregard the deadline, with the administration arguing the ceasefire marked an end to the conflict. The 1973 law allows the president 60 days to wage military action before ending it, seeking authorisation from Congress or asking for a 30-day extension on grounds of “unavoidable military necessity” for the safety of the armed forces. The Iran war began with airstrikes launched by Israel and the US on February 28th. Trump formally notified Congress of the conflict 48 hours later, triggering a 60-day deadline of May 1st. Defence secretary Pete Hegseth told a Senate hearing on Thursday he understood that the 60-day clock stopped during the truce. Opposition Democrats disputed that, saying there was no such legal provision. The US constitution says only Congress, not the president, can declare war, but the curb does not apply for operations the administration casts as short-term or countering an immediate threat. Trump’s Republican Party holds a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress.

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  • Katie MellettBy Katie Mellett

    Main points - US president Donald Trump said he was sticking with a naval blockade of Iranian ports amid concerns the vital Strait of Hormuz could remain closed for months - The Trump administration says hostilities in Iran have ‘terminated’, ahead of an approaching congressional

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

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US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran
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U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

m. ET on Monday. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

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Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.