strikeApr 12, 2026

UPSC Key: US-Iran talks in Islamabad, Artemis II returns and Jag Vikram

Summary

Key Points to Ponder: — What is the status of the US-Israel vs Iran war? — What is happening in Lebanon? — Know the history of US-Iran relations? — What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz? — What is the importance of US-Iran talks in Islamabad? — What challenges hinder durable peace in west Asia? — What is back-channel diplomacy? — What diplomatic challenges can India face in balancing its ties with Israel, the US and Iran? — Read about the use of asymmetric warfare tools in modern conflicts. — How is Israel and non-state actors, such as Hezbollah, complicating ceasefire negotiations? Key Takeaways: Story continues below this ad — The Strait of Hormuz, a major transit point for global energy supplies that Iran has effectively blocked but Trump has vowed to reopen, is crucial to negotiations between the sides during a two-week ceasefire agreed last week. —”We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World,” Trump posted on social media. — U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner flew in on Saturday and met Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi for two hours before a rest, according to a source from mediator Pakistan. — The talks in Islamabad were the first direct U.S.-Iranian meeting in more than a decade and highest-level discussions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Story continues below this ad — The Iranian delegation arrived on Friday dressed in black in mourning for former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and others killed in the war. The war has sent global oil prices soaring, killed thousands of people and led to strikes on Gulf Arab states. — Before the talks began, a senior Iranian source told Reuters the U.S. had agreed to release frozen assets in Qatar and other foreign banks. But a U.S. official denied it. — As well as the release of assets abroad, Tehran is demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz, payment of war reparations and a ceasefire across the region including in Lebanon, according to Iranian state TV and officials. — Trump’s stated goals have varied during the campaign, but as a minimum he wants free passage for global shipping through the strait and the crippling of Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme to ensure it cannot produce an atomic bomb. Story continues below this ad — U.S. ally Israel, which joined the February 28 attacks on Iran that launched the war, has also been bombing Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and says that conflict is not part of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire. From the World Page- “Iran unable to find mines it planted in Strait of Hormuz” — Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials. — The development is one reason Iran has not been able to quickly comply with the Trump administration’s admonitions to let more traffic pass through the strait. Story continues below this ad — Iran used small boats to mine the strait last month, soon after the United States and Israel began their war against the country. The mines, plus the threat of Iranian drone and missile attacks, slowed the number of oil tankers and other vessels passing through the strait to a trickle, driving up energy prices and providing Iran with its best leverage in the war. — Iran left a path through the strait open, allowing ships that pay a toll to pass through.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has issued warnings that ships could collide with sea mines, and semiofficial news organizations have published charts showing safe routes. — Those routes are limited in large part because Iran mined the strait haphazardly, U.S. officials said. It is not clear that Iran recorded where it put every mine. And even when the location was recorded, some mines were placed in a way that allowed them to drift or move, according to the officials. — As with land mines, removing nautical mines is far more difficult than placing them. The U.S. military lacks robust mine removal capabilities, relying on littoral combat ships equipped with mine sweeping capabilities. Iran also does not have the capability of quickly removing mines, even the ones it planted. Do You Know: Story continues below this ad — The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran. It links the Persian Gulf north of it with the Gulf of Oman to the south and the Arabian Sea beyond. It is 21 miles (33 km) wide at its narrowest point, with the shipping lane just two miles (three km) wide in either direction. Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which 20–25 per cent of global oil supply normally flows. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍‘Bad news’: Vance says no agreement reached after peace talks with Iran 📍‘Iran chose not to accept our terms’: As Vance leaves Islamabad, key takeaways from his speech Story continues below this ad 📍Knowledge Nugget | US-Israel war on Iran: 10 must-know tidbits for UPSC Exam 📍‘BIG NO’: Iran rejects US terms after 21-hour Islamabad talks UPSC Prelims Practice Questions Covering similar theme: (1) Which of the statements about the Strait of Hormuz is not correct? (a) It is a critical region for international oil and gas supplies. Story continues below this ad (b) It is a narrow waterway between Bahrain and Qatar. (c) It connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. (d) Disruption of shipping in this strait can significantly affect global energy prices. Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian economy. What’s the ongoing story: Apart from the fuel supply and price shock, the West Asia war has impacted a wide range of items from popular fast-moving consumer items such as instant noodles, juice, milk packs, beverages to automotive components for the country’s largest carmaker. Key Points to Ponder: — How is the West Asia war impacting the Indian economy? — What is the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for India’s energy security? — What is shrinkflation? — How are petrochemical shortages affecting the plastics and packaging industries? — What are windfall taxes? — Why has the government increased export duties on diesel and ATF? — What measures has the government taken to manage the impact of the West Asia war? Key Takeaways: — While constrained supply and higher prices of packaging materials have led to a slower offtake at many production units of these FMCG firms, energy conservation efforts at some of these plants have resulted in underutilised capacity. — Since the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has been prioritised in the wake of supply disruptions — as against all other petrochemical products like propylene, polyethylene, acrylic acid, etc — the change in production mix has had a cascading effect on plastics and agrochemicals. Plastic manufacturing units, and those making products from plastics, are staring at the prospect of closure. As a result, all consumer packaging units using flexible plastics have been badly hit, leading to a pile up of stocks as is the case with Maggi. In response to queries on the shortage of packaging material, a Nestlé India spokesperson declined comment. — Higher packaging costs and issues with supply of plastic caps and bottles have brought trouble for the beverages industry as well. Key players in the mineral water bottle space have hiked prices for distributors and resellers. — As companies attempt to recalibrate pricing of their products, many FMCG makers are also opting for reduction in grammage of their products, known more popularly as ‘shrinkflation’. — The Ministry of Heavy Industries has also urged companies to shift factory operations from oil-based fuels to electricity and to use recycled aluminium or alternative materials as shortages and costs rise, according to a March 25 advisory reported by Reuters. — Amid the rising cost pressures, India’s largest carmaker, Maruti Suzuki, has already announced that it will have to hike prices of its small cars. Other car companies have also announced an increase in prices. — The latest HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed that India’s manufacturing activity fell from 56.9 in February to 53.9 in March, the lowest level in over four years. Cost inflation hit a 43-month high, but softer demand growth has limited hikes to output charges, the S&P Global release stated. From the Economy Page- “Export duties on diesel, ATF hiked” — Amid the surge in global oil and fuel prices due to the West Asia war, the government on Saturday significantly hiked the export duties on diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), or jet fuel, to dissuade refiners from exporting the fuels and ensure adequate availability in the domestic market. — The export levies, or windfall gains taxes—in the form of excise duties—were imposed from March 27 with the objective of ensuring adequate availability of these fuels in the domestic market by disincentivising exports amid a major price difference between domestic and international markets. — With the West Asia war effectively closing off the critical maritime chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil and fuel prices have surged globally. India depends heavily on oil and gas imports to meet its energy needs, and fuel prices in the country are linked to global oil and fuel price benchmarks. — With the effective halt in vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz—from where one-fifth of global oil and natural gas flows usually transited—global energy supplies have been hit and prices have skyrocketed. While India has been in a comfortable position with regard to crude oil, petrol, and diesel availability, it still has to bear the brunt of high prices. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍How India’s economy deals with West Asia war Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme: (2) In the context of global oil prices, “Brent crude oil” is frequently referred to in the news. What does this term imply? (UPSC CSE 2011) 1. It is a major classification of crude oil. 2. It is sourced from the north sea. 3. It does not contain sulphur. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 2 only (b) 1 and 2 only (c) 1 and 3 only (d) 1,2, and 3 WORLD Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies-III: Science and Technology, Awareness in the fields of Space. What’s the ongoing story: The Artemis II capsule and its four-member crew streaked through Earth’s atmosphere and safely splashed down in the Pacific Ocean on Friday after nearly 10 days in space, capping the first voyage by humans to the vicinity of the moon in over half a century. Key Points to Ponder: — Artemis II mission-know its key highlights. — What is the significance of the Artemis II mission? — Apollo programme and Artemis II mission-what are the key differences? — What are Artemis Accords? — Know about the various lunar missions. — What are India’s lunar missions? — Know about India’s next lunar mission – Lunar Polar Exploration (LUPEX) mission. Key Takeaways: — NASA’s gumdrop-shaped Orion capsule, dubbed Integrity, parachuted gently into calm seas off the Southern California coast shortly after 5:07 p.m. Pacific Time, concluding a mission that four days prior took the astronauts 252,756 miles away from Earth, deeper into space than anyone had flown before. Orion crew capsule splashes down in in the Pacific Ocean on Saturday morning. (NASA) — The Artemis II flight, traveling a total of 694,392 miles (1,117,515 km) in two Earth orbits and a climactic lunar flyby some 4,000 miles from its surface, was the debut crewed test flight in a series of Artemis missions that aim to return astronauts to the lunar surface starting in 2028. — The mission was the key test of Orion’s heat shield and a major milestone for NASA’s Artemis program, which aims to return astronauts to the lunar surface in 2028 and build toward a longer-term presence on the moon and, eventually, Mars for the agency’s future. — The first mission of the Artemis programme, in 2022, was an uncrewed spacecraft that went around the Moon and came back. Do You Know: — When the first human landing on the Moon (Apollo 11) happened in 1969, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) did not even exist. It was set up within a month of that epoch-making event. Now, when NASA is working to take humans again to the Moon, ISRO is not just a collaborator but also a competitor, with its own plans of landing humans on the Moon. — The Chinese have been planning a human landing on the Moon by 2030, whereas India’s plans are for 2040. India is a signatory to the Artemis Accords, a set of non-binding, bilateral principles that guides sustainable, peaceful civil space exploration led by NASA, particularly for the Moon and Mars. This signalled India’s strategic alignment with the US space programme and possible opportunities for ISRO to collaborate closely with NASA on lunar exploration. — The two agencies already have a deep engagement, with the recent NISAR earth-observation joint mission underlining that relationship. NASA’s announcement said its lunar plans would have important contributions from private industry, academic institutions, and international partners. ISRO could have first-hand experience from these missions as it prepares to fulfil its own dreams over the next two decades. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Artemis II splashes down: How the Moon mission heralds new era in human space travel 📍How NASA will fly astronauts to the Moon and back for Artemis II UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering similar theme: (3) Consider the following pairs: 1. Artemis I – It was an uncrewed spacecraft that went around the Moon and came back. 2. Artemis II – It was the first ever crewed mission of NASA that seeks to get human beings on the Moon. Which of the pairs given above is/are correctly marked? (a) Only 1 (b) Only 2 (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2 ECONOMY Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of National importance and economic development. Mains Examination: General Studies-III: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development. What’s the ongoing story: The Reserve Bank of India’s draft guidelines for NBFC Upper Layer (NBFC-UL) entities mark a significant shift in regulatory framework, moving away from a complex parametric scoring system to a more straightforward asset-size-based classification. Key Points to Ponder: — What is a Non-Banking Financial Company (NBFC)? — How is NBFC different from a bank? — What are the different types/categories of NBFCs registered with the Reserve Bank? — What is meant by NBFC Upper Layer (NBFC-UL)? — What is a core investment company? — What are the issues related to listing requirements for CICs? — Read about the regulation of NBFCs. — What are the challenges faced by NBFCs in India and suggest policy measures that can help in improving their financial health and credit availability. Key Takeaways: —In the draft guidelines released late on Friday, the RBI has proposed that any NBFC with assets of Rs 1 lakh crore or more will automatically qualify as an NBFC‑UL, replacing the earlier mix of the top‑ten‑by‑size list and a parametric scoring model. The RBI said this change is aimed at making the process “transparent, simple and objective,” eliminating the ambiguity that surrounded the earlier methodology. — However, as this remains only a draft proposal, the RBI’s final stance will be decisive. A key ambiguity persists: whether a core investment company (CIC) classified under the NBFC Upper Layer must mandatorily list. Until the RBI issues a final circular or explicitly clarifies the treatment of CICs, Tata Sons and other large holding entities continue to operate under regulatory uncertainty, even as their upper-layer classification becomes clearer, according to an expert. — Under the earlier framework, NBFCs were slotted into the Upper Layer based on a composite scoring model that factored in multiple parameters such as size, interconnectedness, leverage and complexity. The revised approach simplifies this by placing greater emphasis on asset size as the primary determinant. This reduces ambiguity and regulatory discretion, offering clearer compliance benchmarks for large financial entities. — If implemented in its current form, the new regime could trigger strategic recalibrations among large NBFCs, especially those on the cusp of Upper Layer classification. Do You Know: — A Non-Banking Financial Company (NBFC) is a company registered under the Companies Act, 1956 or Companies Act, 2013, and engaged in the business of loans and advances, acquisition of shares/ stocks/ bonds/ debentures/ securities issued by Government or local authority or other marketable securities of a like nature, leasing, hire-purchase, etc., as their principal business, but does not include any institution whose principal business is that of agriculture activity, industrial activity, purchase or sale of any goods (other than securities) or providing any services and sale/ purchase/ construction of immovable property. Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme: (4) With reference to the Non-banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India, consider the following statements: (UPSC CSE 2010) 1. They cannot engage in the acquisition of securities issued by the government. 2. They cannot accept demand deposits like Savings Account. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2 Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests, Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilisation of resources. What’s the ongoing story: Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tanker Jag Vikram crossed the Strait of Hormuz between Friday night and Saturday morning, becoming the first India-flagged vessel to cross the maritime chokepoint since the announcement of the temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, according to ship tracking data. Key Points to Ponder: — What are the constituents of the LPG? — How do tensions in West Asia affect global energy security? — Know the portfolio of India’s crude oil, LPG and LNG imports. — Read about the India-Iran relations. — What is India’s Middle East policy? — Know about the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in detail. — What role does UNCLOS play in regulating global trade routes? — What are the efforts taken by the government for energy security amidst conflict in West Asia? — Map work: Locate Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, Israel, Bab Al Mandab, the Horn of Africa, and other places in the news related to the US-Iran war on the map. Key Takeaways: — Jag Vikram is the ninth Indian ship to exit the Persian Gulf since early March; another 15 India-flagged vessels are in the Persian Gulf with its exit. According to the government, Jag Vikram is carrying around 20,400 tonnes of LPG with 24 seafarers on board. — According to trade sources, Jag Vikram had been waiting to cross the Strait of Hormuz for over a week now. On April 3, The Indian Express had reported that LPG tankers Green Asha and Jag Vikram were expected to cross the crucial waterway in a few days’ time. Green Asha transited the Strait on April 5. Scores of vessels have been stranded in the Persian Gulf since the war began, with only a few being able to safely transit the Strait, and that, too, in coordination with Iran. — While transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Jag Vikram was signalling that it was an Indian ship with Indian crew on board. Such identity broadcasts have become a standard of sorts among vessels crossing the Strait in coordination with Iranian authorities, which are regulating vessel movements. — The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea; it is a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy flows. Around one-fifth of global oil and gas flows transited the Strait before the war began. — India is among the countries that have been engaged with Iran at the diplomatic level for safe passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran brought vessel movements to an effective halt amid the ongoing West Asia war. With the ceasefire announcement on Wednesday, there were hopes that vessel movements through the Strait would progressively increase. While some movement in traffic has reportedly picked up a bit, flows remain highly constricted. — Amid reports that Iran wants to impose a toll or a transit fee on merchant vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, India continues to press for free and safe navigation through the waterway. In response to reports regarding the potential formalisation of a toll by Iran for passage through the Strait, a senior Foreign Ministry official recently said that there has been “absolutely no discussion” on the issue between India and Iran, adding that India maintains its long-held stance on the matter and will evaluate future scenarios if and when they arise. — There had been reports that Iran was already charging a “toll” from some vessels before allowing them to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The Indian government has been categorically denying the payment of any toll or charge to the Iranians for the passage of India-flagged ships through the waterway. Since the war began, eight India-flagged vessels—all LPG tankers—have returned from the Persian Gulf. — India has high dependence on West Asia for its oil and gas supplies, most of which come to the country via the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is also important for India’s supplies of other commodities, including fertilisers and petrochemicals. — Like most other natural waterways that are shipping chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz is an international strait, and no tolls are charged just for crossing them, as per the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Although neither Iran nor the US have ratified the convention, it is widely accepted as international law, and Washington and Tehran have mostly abided by it. Sources indicated that changing the status of the Strait of Hormuz is a question of international law and would be required to be done through the UN. Innocent Passage vs Transit Passage: What International Law Says About the Strait of Hormuz The Foundation of Maritime Law ⚖️ Origin 1609 Mare Liberum Dutch jurist Hugo Grotius proposed the "free sea" doctrine — international waters belong to no single nation and must remain open to all. 🌐 Legal Framework 12 NM UNCLOS, 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea fixed territorial waters at 12 nautical miles, ending arbitrary coastal extensions worldwide. Two Legal Regimes — Compared ⚠️ Regime 1 Innocent Passage Coastal state CAN suspend Allows transit through territorial waters with strict movement restrictions. The coastal state may suspend passage at any time for any vessel. ✅ Regime 2 Transit Passage Coastal state CANNOT suspend Applies ONLY to international straits. Guarantees continuous, expeditious transit. Coastal state cannot block, restrict, or discriminate by flag. Iran & the Strait of Hormuz 🚢 Legal Status Hormuz Qualifies The Strait meets UNCLOS criteria as a "strait used for international navigation" — Transit Passage applies. 🗺️ Who Controls It Iran + Oman The entire navigable corridor falls within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. 📋 Iran's UNCLOS Status Signed, Not Ratified ✓ Signed 1982 ✗ Never ratified A deliberate choice that complicates legal enforcement. 🚫 The Conflict Regime Violation Iran applies Innocent Passage — which allows suspension — to a strait where Transit Passage, which cannot be suspended, should apply. — Prior to the ceasefire, Iran had said that non-hostile vessels linked to countries other than the US, Israel, and their allies can cross the strait in coordination with Iranian authorities. With the ceasefire announcement on Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks but “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations”. Do You Know: — LPG is a relatively clean, portable, and efficient energy source. It is colourless and odourless and a strong “stenching” agent is added so that even a very small leak can be easily detected. — At a normal temperature, LPG is a gas. When subjected to modest pressure or cooling, it transforms into a liquid. As a liquid, it is easy to transport and store. Once it has been cooled or pressurised, LPG is usually stored in containers made of either steel or aluminium. — LPG is an energy-rich fuel source with a higher calorific value per unit than other commonly used fuels, including diesel, coal, natural gas, petrol, and biomass-derived alcohols. This means that an LPG flame burns hotter, an advantage that can translate into higher efficiency. Its unique properties make it a versatile energy source that can be used in numerous applications. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Knowledge Nugget | LPG in Focus: What it is, how it is produced, and why India depends on imports Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme: (5) What is the importance of developing Chabahar Port by India? (UPSC CSE 2017) (a) India’s trade with African countries will increase enormously. (b) India’s relations with oil-producing Arab countries will be strengthened. (c) India will not depend on Pakistan for access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. (d) Pakistan will facilitate and protect the installation of a gas pipeline between Iraq and India. OPINION Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Economic and Social development. Mains Examination: General Studies-I, II: Role of women and women’s organization, population and associated issues, Social empowerment, Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors. What’s the ongoing story: Anuradha Das Mathur & Aradhana Sharma write- “Delhi is among India’s most educated cities for women. And yet, it is also one in which their workforce participation is the least, much lower than the national average of about 35 per cent.” Key Points to Ponder: — What is meant by unpaid care work? — What is time poverty? Know its gendered dimensions. — How does unpaid care work affect women’s employment? — Why is women’s workforce participation low despite high levels of education? — What are the key barriers to women’s employment in urban India? — What measures should be taken to improve women’s workforce participation in India? Key Takeaways: — “For years, the gap between women’s education and employment has been explained through familiar frames: ambition, social norms, family resistance, personal choice. But when Vedica for Women commissioned a district-level study across 11 districts of Delhi, engaging nearly 3,000 women, those explanations began to feel inadequate.” — “We asked a different question. Not whether women want to work, but what gets in the way. The reasons were diverse. Care responsibilities run through women’s lives like a constant thread. Whether or not a woman is employed, she is almost always responsible for children, elders, households, and the invisible labour that keeps families going.” — “Globally, women spend over three times as many hours on unpaid care work as men. In India, that gap is far wider. And yet, care is rarely counted, valued, or planned for. It is treated as a private matter rather than an economic reality. Paid work, meanwhile, is designed as if care does not exist at all.” — “This mismatch shapes everything. Women told us that work itself is not the hardest part. Making work fit into already full lives is. Long and unsafe commutes, unpredictable schedules, sudden shift changes, late hours each of these turns a viable job into an impossible one. Time poverty, rather than lack of ambition, emerges as a central constraint. Not just the number of hours women work, but their inability to control them.” — “The study also unsettles another deeply held assumption that societal expectations are always the primary barrier. Nearly half of educated, non-working women reported that their families would support them if they chose to work. And yet, they are still not working. This should give us pause. If families are willing, but women remain outside the workforce, then the barriers lie elsewhere — in rigid workplace design, fragmented transport systems, lack of flexibility, and the absence of buffers for everyday disruptions.” — “Nearly three-quarters of educated, non-working women surveyed had never worked at all. This is not a story of women dropping out and struggling to return. It is about figuring out why educated women are not entering the workforce in the first place.” — “Education has opened doors. But beyond the door lies a narrow corridor, one that requires constant adjustment, explanation, and compromise…But there are places to begin. First, we need far better data on what’s happening with women post education; who is able to enter work and who is not; who is falling out of the workforce, at what stage, and why. Assumption-led policy will not solve a problem this complex.” — “Second, Delhi should set a clear target for increasing women’s workforce participation. Third, we need a concerted, mission-mode approach, probably a task force that brings together the government, employers, educational institutions, civil society, and citizens. Women are not asking to be pushed harder. They are asking for systems that recognise the full lives they already lead.” Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍How gender remains a primary barrier to women’s workforce participation 📍Do flexible work arrangements actually ease women’s burdens? 📍Why housework demands redistribution, not just recognition | | ALSO IN NEWS |Centre developing agricultural roadmap for states: Chouhan ||Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on Saturday that the Centre will develop state-wise agricultural roadmaps as per each region’s agro-climatic conditions, in consultation with the respective state governments. Later speaking to reporters, Chouhan said several states have shown their interest in the agricultural roadmap. | |Jaishankar discusses West Asia situation with UAE counterpart ||In his first visit to the Gulf region since the war in West Asia broke out six weeks ago, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met his UAE counterpart Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. This two-day visit is important at a time when the talks between the US and Iran are taking place in Pakistan. | |Born at Kuno, raised in the wild: 2nd Indian-born cheetah gives birth ||India’s cheetah reintroduction programme reached a new milestone on Saturday when a female cheetah born inside the country delivered four cubs in the wild at Kuno National Park in Madhya Pradesh. The birth is the second consecutive breeding event involving a cheetah born on Indian soil. In November 2025, a female named Mukhi became the first locally born cheetah to produce young when she delivered five cubs. That Gamini has now followed is being read by officials as evidence of a pattern taking hold rather than a single fortunate event. | |Quality of legal system crucial in making India USD 10-trillion economy, says CJI ||Chief Justice of India (CJI) Surya Kant on Saturday said the quality of the legal system will be a crucial factor in India’s goal of becoming a USD 10-trillion economy. CJI Kant said: “A 10-trillion-dollar Bharat will not be built by capital or policy alone. It will be built, in no small part, by the quality of the legal system that upholds the rule of law and the promises on which all of that depends.” | |PRELIMS ANSWER KEY | |1. (b) 2. (b) 3. (a) 4. (b) 5. (c) | Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – Indian Express UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X. 🚨 Click Here to read the UPSC Essentials magazine for March 2026. Share your views and suggestions in the comment box or at [email protected]🚨

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Roshni YadavBy Roshni Yadav
Key Points to Ponder: — What is the status of the US-Israel vs Iran war? — What is happening in Lebanon? — Know the history of US-Iran relations? — What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz? — What is the importance of US-Iran talks in Islamabad? — What challenges hinder d…

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxyRussiaChina

Iran War: Brief US Pause Followed by Renewed Strikes as Iran Intensifies Attacks on Bases and Kuwait Desalination; Continued Speculation About US Operation | naked capitalism

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Over the weekend, after exchanges where the US hit bridges and a desalination plant in Iran (reportedly repaired very quickly) and Iran’s response included hitting a much more important desalination and power plant in Kuwait and pounding important US operations in Jordan, the US attacks fell way back one night and CENTCOM and even Trump were quiet.

Some speculated that more Gulf states were denying the US the use of their airspace and the US was having to make a major regrouping. However, the US resumed strikes last night, with the pretext that the US had suffered two more military deaths on top of two just reported.

1 Trump had promised intensified strikes beginning more or less today if Iran did not return to negotiations, as in capitulate. And as many noted, the US had escalated last week, albeit not to the level of attacks during the initial phase of the war, not just with the number of strikes but also the targeting: the aforementioned desalination plant, bridges, too close for comfort to the Bushehr nuclear plant2 and to a nuclear site under development at Darkhovin.

Many have argued that the latest round of strikes look like shaping attacks in preparation for a ground operation, which pretty much everyone with even a modicum of military knowledge sees as insane.3 Daniel Davis has also mentioned in passing that despite all the noise about using ground forces and other signs of a buildup, such as more refueling tankers flying to Jordan, that Trump was shaken by the near-disaster at Isfahan, where a supposed rescue of a downed pilot resulted in the loss of more air assets than in any single engagement since Vietnam.

Many experts have contended that that was an actual operation, a botched attempt to remove some of Iran’s “nuclear dust.” However, Scott Ritter may have squared that circle. See his brief clip starting at 11:55: From a lightly-edited machine transcript: Jawaid: Scott Ritter thinks that Israeli lap dog Trump will soon launch a ground invasion of Iran, but he will fail miserably.

Also, this is something Iran has been wanting Trump to commit to for a long time. Ritter: There’s a a mission called a raid. Um, and I, you know, we already had US troops fighting on the ground. We did a raid to rescue a pilot. We were in limited ground combat operations there.

I think there’s a high potential that the US will conduct a raid here and there because that’s a that’s a a very specific task. A raid is is the only military mission where we plan to retreat. You know, every other military mission there’s no plan. You commit and you go, but a raid is in and out.

So maybe we can do a raid, but the idea that we’re going to land in seize territory, there’s zero chance that will happen because there’s zero chance of success. Now admittedly, if pilot rescue came about as the result of the botched operation in Isfahan, that would be debatable as a raid.

Even though the intent again was to retreat, the US would have had to stage equipment for the removal and transport of nuclear material, so there would be a short-lived occupation of terrain and not just a fast snatch and grab, as with Maduro. Nevertheless, the US military may not be totally suicidal, so the plan may be for a fast landing to inflict some sort of concrete form of damage that cannot be well inflicted from the air and then to decamp.

This segment also includes a very informative explanation of how important the operations in Jordan are to the US, and how the Iran intend is destroy bases so that the US has to retreat to Israel and then Iran will proceed forcefully against the remaining assets there.

We’ll soon turn to updates, but to start with some bigger picture considerations: it is disconcerting to see how many commentators resort to the trope that neither side can prevail on the battlefield, that they will in the end negotiate an outcome. As we pointed out, a study of modern wars found that more than half did not.

The distrust between the two sides, which has now reached the level of mutual loathing as a result of the fast breakdown of the already likely to fail Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), means any “deal” is vanishingly unlikely. Iran knew even before it entered into talks that the US and Israel intended to execute a “mowing the lawn” strategy, of keeping crippling sanctions in place and beating up on Iran every so often to weaken it and hopefully create severe internal divisions that would trigger an overthrow or balkanization.

Even if Iran’s 47 year record of taking severe punishment and surviving says this plot would probably fail, Iran had been preparing since the Iraq War for the US and Israel to launch a major campaign. After the illegal launch, the assassination of a major part of Iran’s leadership, as well as war crimes exemplified by the massacre of school children in Minab, the nation is highly unified around inflicting a decisive defeat on the US, so that it won’t even think about military action against Iran for at least a decade.

We were far from alone in making that case early in the war and Iran’s resolve has only stiffened as it can see how it has weakened the US while Iran has learned from combat and claims to have even bigger inventories of key weapons than it had at the start of the war.

Critically, Iranian leaders have said, bluntly, that negotiating with the US is not just pointless but also demeaning. Consider the germane parts of a recent statement by the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei,4 as summarized at PressTV: - Leader said the United States had once again violated the memorandum of understanding signed between the presidents of Iran and the US, proving that the signature of the American president is worthless and unreliable.

- He said bullying, hegemonic ambition, and savagery are inseparable characteristics of the United States and that Washington had once again revealed its true, unmasked face to the world. - He described the latest developments – US attacks against southern Iran, mainly targeting the civilian infrastructure – as further evidence of America’s deceitfulness, irrationality, unreliability, and wickedness.

- Leader said the United States is seeking to ignite further war despite facing heavier costs and greater disgrace. - He warned that the Iranian nation and the Resistance Front have unforgettable lessons for the United States, adding that the bravery of Islamic resistance fighters and the courageous people of southern Iran have already demonstrated examples of those lessons.

However, Araghchi subsequently gave an interview which can be read as pushing back against the Supreme Leader:5 Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says that negotiations with the U.S. should be pursued even if the chances of success are only 10 percent, further highlighting disagreements between Iran’s political and military echelons.

“I am the Foreign Minister for the interests of… pic.twitter.com/uW1DzcfRhG — Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) July 19, 2026 Keep in mind also that China is still bleating about the need to settle the conflict and Pakistan and Qatar (among others) are also pressing for a resumption of the talks, so Araghchi as Foreign Minister has to keep the idea in play, irrespective of whether he privately places much stock in the idea.

6 And there is another way to read Araghchi’s talk: So they wanted to manufacture a clean record of “we exhausted every diplomatic option." Once that record existed, the hardliners with Mojtaba could shut the process down without looking like the ones who refused talks.

Moderates who pushed the channel now own the failure, and… https://t.co/Y63yYJVaEZ — Vonbury Research (@VonburyResearch) July 19, 2026 Kinetic action seems likely to continue to dominate: ADVISOR TO IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER, MOHSEN REZAEI, SAYING: “I declare it is over.

Both negotiation and war are over. If in the next two or three days the Americans continue the war, we will enter a phase of complete offense and destruction.”#Iran #IranWar pic.twitter.com/1M3A1pboH9 — Iran Now – WANA (@WANA_Iran) July 18, 2026 Robert Pape also seems confident that US escalation will continue7.

I found this discussion noteworthy because Andrew Neil strongly resisted the idea that there would be no negotiated ending and also found it inconceivable that Iran could become, as Pape has argued, the fourth world power. In other words, Neil seems to epitomize a set of normally pretty smart people who find it hard to see where the direction of travel is going because those outcomes so conflict with their priors: From a lightly cleaned up machine transcript: Pape: This is not what’s coming in the next few weeks likely.

What’s much more likely is he’s [Trump’s] going to do the close blockade and if he can then use the southern corridor with that close blockade to reopen the Strait, he’ll he’ll be probably satisfied with that. Very unlikely that’s going to work and that’s why you’ve got the 82nd Airborne and the Marines there to push back further.

Now, I’m not saying this is going to work, Andrew…. Neil: So, I’ve got to ask you some questions in this because I’m unclear. Do you think that the of the limited options President Trump now has, that escalation as you describe it is the most likely?

Pape: Yes. Neil: And that escalation will begin with a much more aggressive, more comprehensive a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with the possibility of ground incursion on the northern side of the straight in Iranian territory? Pape: Yes. Yes, and it’s our and and the first part has already started this week.

So, so you’re already seeing in fact last week was the beginning of the air suppression campaign for this week. And as President Trump laid out the bombing schedule last night, the reason he will, if he if this keeps going forward, okay, just keep saying that if, he’s going to want to take out things like electric power and bridges is because he’s going to want to try to suppress as much of Iran’s military defenses as he can as he goes forward here.

And the military is giving him the plans for doing that. One place where I differ with Pape is that he posits that Congress might get out of bed in six months and Do Something to check Trump then. To again invoke Stein’s Law, if something cannot continue, it will stop.

The US and Israel can of course carry on with terrorism within Iran, such as assassinations and cyber attacks. But the level of weapons depletion and on current trajectories, shortly-arriving fuel shortages, seems very likely to put a choke chain on US aggression soon.

From Larry Johnson in The US Faces a Strategic Crisis with Iran…The Rapid Depletion of US Battlefield Missiles:8 The tables below are based on the most recent publicly available analyses from CSIS, the Payne Institute, and major media outlets (as of mid-2026), and provide a current (overly optimistic in my opinon) estimate for US inventory levels of these key weapons systems.

Please note that actual inventories are classified; these are informed estimates derived from DOD budget documents, procurement records, and reported expenditures during Operation Epic Fury (the US-Israeli war with Iran). Air Defense Missiles Anti-Radiation / SEAD Long-Range Strike (Ground & Sea-Launched) Missiles These are not just the numbers currently in the hands of US CENTCOM (i.

e., the US military command in charge of the war against Iran), these are the total numbers available to all of the US military commands. If these missiles are allocated evenly to the other two critical commands — i.e., EUCOM (European Command) and PACOM (Pacific Command) — then you begin to understand the gravity of this deficit.

Let’s take the case of the Tomahawk missile. Let’s assume there are 3,000 left (I believe that is a generous over estimate) and the remaining number are divided evenly among CENTCOM, EUCOM and PACOM… That means each command gets 1,000. Does anyone want to argue that in the event of a hot war with Russia or China that EUCOM and PACOM respectively would be able to sustain combat operations for more than four weeks?

Hell, CENTCOM fired 850 of them during the first four weeks of EPIC FURY. Here’s another major problem: All eight missile systems rely on rare earth elements — there are no exceptions among modern US precision-guided weapons. The dependence is nearly universal because rare earth permanent magnets are irreplaceable for the high-performance actuators, guidance motors, and seeker gimbals that make these weapons accurate.

And who controls the supply chain of these rare earth minerals? China!… The supply chain isn’t just about mining — it’s about processing, separation, and magnet manufacturing, which China controls: - Mining: China ~60% of global rare earth oxide production - Refining/Separation: China ~91% - Sintered NdFeB Magnet Manufacturing: China **~94%** Now to updates.

From Aljazeera’s live feed: - A vessel is on fire in the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by a projectile, forcing the crew to abandon ship. They were later rescued by a tugboat. - One person has been killed and several others wounded after the US military attacked the Iranian city of Tabriz in northwestern Iran.

The entries in the feed include ones describing how Mr. Market is taking cheer from the Iran Foreign Ministry admitting they are getting communiques from intermediaries and reviewing them as if they originated from the US. Recall that the negotiators have often developed ideas and tried to sell both sides on them.

Bloomberg’s Javier Blas, who has been a consistent seller of lower oil prices, is refreshingly precise about Iran not saying either way as to whether the missives were from the US or just the negotiators operating on their own: Iran has received “some proposals” from unspecified mediators regarding the war with the US, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in press conference, without elaborating.

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 20, 2026 Contrast that with the Aljazeera account: Oil prices ease after Iran says US contacts continuing through mediators Oil prices have scaled back their gains after hitting their highest in a month after Iran said diplomatic exchanges with the US are ongoing via mediators despite renewed conflict in the Middle East.

Grr. Another Aljazeera live feed entry: Iran ‘counting down the minutes’ for US ground invasion [Today’s Iran war post launched more or less complete. I will be off duty for a while. If there are any updates, they will come in the comment section later] Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says the United States will face “consequences of any adventure” to seize Kharg Island in southern Iran.

He added there are people in Iran’s leadership “counting down the minutes to welcome” US forces in any ground invasion. Kharg is the heart of Iran’s oil industry. It sits 55km (34 miles) off Iran’s coast in Bushehr province. President Trump has repeatedly threatened to seize the territory during the war.

A raid on Kharg could fit Ritter’s raid scenario, with the US busting things up and then leaving.9 But experts have pointed out that Iran has at least four other export routes. Kharg is the most efficient but losing it while being repaired would be inconvenient as opposed to a fatal blow.

From Bloomberg’s landing page: From US Bombs Iran for Ninth Day as Standoff Over Hormuz Deepens: The US conducted a ninth straight day of airstrikes on Iran, trying to force the Islamic Republic to stop shipping attacks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The American military bombed military targets and communications networks in a three-hour operation ending around 5:30 a.m. Iranian time on Monday. Iran continued to attack US bases in the likes of Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain and Iraq. The standoff shows no sign of easing, with Iran refusing to relent over Hormuz and insisting it has a right to manage traffic through the waterway.

Energy prices have jumped on the worsening hostilities. Brent crude oil rose to above $90 a barrel for the first time in more than five weeks in early trading on Monday. US gasoline prices climbed back over the $4-a-gallon mark, potentially hurting President Donald Trump and his Republican party ahead of midterm elections in November… Hormuz Shipping Traffic Slumps as US-Iran Hostilities Worsen The tit-for-tat attacks are getting deadlier….

Shipping volumes have slumped and the number of tankers and other vessels going through Hormuz is roughly down to the same level from the height of the conflict in March and early April… US President Donald Trump warned Iran last week he’d escalate airstrikes and widen the scope of targets until it backed down… Kuwait continues to experience some of the worst attacks from Iran.

Over the weekend, Kuwait’s main state energy company said an unspecified site sustained “significant material losses,” causing its evacuation and a number of injuries, while two power and desalination plants have been hit in recent days. And from Hormuz Traffic Near Standstill as US-Iran Hostilities Escalate: - Visible traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appeared at a near standstill Monday after Iran targeted vessels in the narrow waterway.

- A Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier and a liquefied petroleum gas carrier appeared to approach the strait, with the bulk carrier turning off its transponder while approaching. - The targeting of vessels will likely raise fresh concerns over the safety of ships transiting Hormuz, which could deepen disruptions to energy flows from the Persian Gulf to global customers.

Indirectly importance of US operations in Jordan, the lead story in the Wall Street Journal is Jordan Becomes New Flashpoint in U.S.-Iran War as Troop Deaths Rise. But it fails to set forth any of the juicy details that Janta Ka presents. This is the thin strategic gruel offered: For years, Jordan sought to play down its close military and intelligence cooperation with the U.

S. The U.S. aircraft that carried out strikes on Islamic State from a base in Jordan during the American war with the militants didn’t advertise the country they were operating from. But Jordan’s role is now becoming too prominent to obscure. Jordan has become an attractive location for U.

S. armed forces since it is among the most permissive in the Arab world when it comes to allowing the U.S. to operate from its bases. A bit more on Jordan: The view from Tehran. “The increased focus on Jordan may serve as part of Iran’s preparation and testing of operational concepts for more intense and precise strikes against Israel in later stages of the conflict.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia—have at times sought to impose limits… — Policy Tensor (@policytensor) July 20, 2026 By contrast, the House of Saud published a remarkably revealing document (hat tip Eugene Linden), Iran Struck Prince Sultan and No One Was Required to Say So: Iranian ballistic missiles struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Al-Kharj on July 18, wounding twelve US service members — two critically — and hitting KC-135 Stratotankers on the flight line while a second rotation was still climbing out.

Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense Authority cleared the sirens six minutes later without naming the weapon, the origin, or the damage, and neither Riyadh nor Washington has issued an official statement since. The strike was the first direct Iranian attack on Saudi territory in approximately four months, a gap during which the IRGC struck Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, and the UAE while conspicuously sparing the Kingdom.

Its return to PSAB — confirmed by a US official to Axios, corroborated by satellite imagery, and detailed by Air & Space Forces Magazine — ended whatever territorial immunity Saudi Arabia believed it still possessed. But the more consequential development is not the strike itself.

It is the silence that followed, and the institutional architecture that sustains it: a three-party managed ambiguity in which Iran, Saudi Arabia, and CENTCOM each benefit from leaving the damage question unanswered, because answering it would force a public reckoning with a PAC-3 reserve that is approaching a ceiling none of them can afford to name.

The strike was confirmed by a US official cited by Axios as “the first time the Islamic Republic has directly attacked the kingdom in four months” — a description that the State Department, the Pentagon, and the Saudi Ministry of Defence have each declined to repeat on the record.

Air & Space Forces Magazine, drawing on multiple US military sources, reported at least twelve wounded and multiple Stratotankers damaged on the tarmac. Open-source satellite imagery corroborated the impact site within the base perimeter. Iran’s state broadcaster supplied what no government would.

The missiles were launched “moments after American refueling planes took off,” a detail that only makes sense if the IRGC had real-time ISR coverage of PSAB’s tanker rotation schedule. The aircraft hit were those that remained on the flight line after the airborne pair departed — the timing was deliberate, and the targeting message was not about maximising destruction but about demonstrating that PSAB’s daily operational patterns are watched, clocked, and within reach….

Riyadh cannot confirm the strike without confronting two questions it has spent the war avoiding. The first is defensive: if Iranian missiles hit PSAB and wounded US personnel, the Sakhir Declaration — the mutual defence framework Saudi Arabia negotiated with Washington — becomes the operative instrument, and invoking it requires publicly admitting what the Arab Center DC described as the core strategic dilemma: “the PAC-3 architecture is functionally exhausted.

” The second is economic. Aramco’s August Arab Light OSP already dropped $11 month-on-month to $1.50 per barrel below Oman/Dubai, the largest such cut in over two decades and the lowest since June 2020. Confirming that Iranian ballistic missiles are landing on military installations 77 kilometres south of the capital forces a sovereign-risk reassessment that Riyadh’s fiscal position — a Q1 deficit of SAR 125.

7 billion, with Aramco’s free cash flow at 0.85 times its quarterly dividend — is not structured to absorb…. Washington faces a different but parallel constraint. Confirming the strike means confirming that 2,300 US service members at PSAB are taking casualties at a base where 43 US warplanes have been grounded since Saudi Arabia’s Operation Project Freedom in May 2026.

CENTCOM cannot describe a defensive engagement at PSAB without also describing the legal anomaly: the 1977 USMTM memorandum governing US presence is not a Status of Forces Agreement, and Project Freedom severed the operational relationship between American air power and Saudi host-nation authority.

An official statement would invite the Congressional question that the Pentagon’s communications strategy is built to defer: why are American troops still at a base where their aircraft have been grounded by the host nation, absorbing Iranian fire under a legal framework that was designed for peacetime advisory missions?

Please read this article in full. It contains remarkable operational detail. It is over my pay grade as to why it was published, but it seems to suggest considerable unhappiness at Riyadh. Due to the length of this post, we have skipped over the fact that Ansar Allah seems just about to threaten or actually close the Bab el-Mandeb strait: 🚨 BREAKING 🇾🇪 YEMEN’S HOUTHI FORCES WILL MAKE A “HUGE” ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY AT 8:30 AM ET.

REPORTS EXPECT THEM TO ANNOUNCE A BLOCKADE OF THE BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT. TOGETHER WITH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THESE TWO CHOKEPOINTS HANDLE OVER 25% OF GLOBAL SEABORNE OIL TRADE. IF TRUE,… pic.twitter.com/yjavHpPKOi — Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) July 20, 2026 This does not look terribly negotiation-receptive.

And some additional sightings from Twitter: Israelis have never felt less secure. 64% are unhappy with how the endless wars have been run. 73% are upset at how there has been no real investigation of October 7. 73% of the public also feel the government has not dealt well with the rise in crime.

No one wins from these… https://t.co/4OjhLUD14O — Shaiel Ben-Ephraim (@academic_la) July 19, 2026 These remarks would seem to negate happy thinking about negotiations: ⚡️⭕️ Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says Tehran is determined to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz through measures already taken, and states the US failed to fulfill its commitments under a memorandum of understanding, so Iran will not fulfill… — Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) July 20, 2026 The average price for a gallon of gas hit $4, the second time it has reached that benchmark since the war in Iran disrupted global oil supplies https://t.

co/Cg8rE3XnJ7 pic.twitter.com/3UqHfwU4sc — CNN (@CNN) July 20, 2026 Done for today! See you tomorrow! ____ 1 What kind of admission of weakness is this? Part of the job description of a service member is that they may wind up dying for their country.

Admittedly, the US is widely suspected of suffering a much higher body count and covering that up. But this show of extreme sensitivity to losses again shows the US has a glass jaw. 2 Nima also discusses at some length at the top of a new talk with Larry Johnson why they look misguided.

He knows Bandar Abbas well, which is where the US has been hitting bridges so as to isolate it. Nima explains and even shows pictures that the bridges exist only to cope with seasonal floods for a few months a year. Those sluices are dry now, so Bandar Abbas is easily accessible by all sorts of routes.

3 🚨 BREAKING: Russia has evacuated 198 of its personnel from the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran. It is believed that the plant could be targeted again. pic.twitter.com/lPoQB05qgo — GBC (@GBC_Press) July 17, 2026 4 A new trope in the US-backing commentary community is to depict the new Supreme Leader as a figurehead, which is easy to make stick given his lack of public appearances (I suspect that among other things, he is having facial reconstruction; that can take an extremely long time since procedures are done serially with healing time in between).

I believe it was on a recent Dialogue Works talk where Professor Marandi debunked one popular claim, that he IRGC was operating on its own authority. Professor Marandi described the governing structure and said the military (both the regular forces and the Guards) needed approval of the Supreme Leader for its operations.

Having said that, I have commented that Iran seems to have a Japanese-style decision-making structure, as in more bottoms-up than the West. That results in more time to make decisions but much more internal cohesion when they are reached, since those at lower levels would be able to voice concerns and make suggestions.

Upon reflection, this would make sense given that Iran adopted its “mosaic” structure of extreme decentralization so as to allow it to function well even when the leadership was killed or incommunicado, as we saw at the onset of the current conflict.

In the Japanese model, decisions are effectively made at the senior-middle level ranks, which does tend result in the board and CEO being ceremonial. But the top level can and does say no, or effectively does so by asking probing questions and sending the matter back down the chain for further study and perhaps some revision.

I have been involved in decisions in Japan where the board and CEO were highly engaged, and these were ones that were of critical strategic importance. 5 DropSite has a longer recap of Araghchi’s remarks: ⭕️ Iran FM Araghchi: Wars End Either Through Total Victory or Negotiations… Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: 🔹 A war must be ended precisely at the point when you hold the upper hand on the battlefield.

Ending a war is possible either through total military victory or… pic.twitter.com/kHeYhShsXC — Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 20, 2026 IMHO his analysis is wrong-headed. As indicated above, a bit over half the modern wars do not end with a negotiated settlement.

And it is a false dichotomy to say that to win, Iran must conquer the US and Israel. FFS, please explain Vietnam. Bad logistics and depleting weapons mean that ex nukes, the US cannot win against Iran. The question is how long it takes and how much damage is done not just to Iran but also the world economy.

Keep in mind the intermediaries are still busy but motion is not progress: #Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson has confirmed that Tehran has received "ideas and proposals" from mediators. He declined to provide any further details regarding the specifics of the mediation efforts.

pic.twitter.com/8Pzs25eauc — Iran Nuances (@IranNuances) July 20, 2026 6 A memorable scene in the Daniel Ellsberg memoir Secrets is when Ellsberg, widely seen as the top US expert on Vietnam, briefed McNamara in a helicopter about how badly things were going.

McNamara said, “Just as I suspected,” and then upon landing updated the press on the great progress the US was making. 7 It has taken me too long to see why Pape often acts as if he is speaking to children or the stoopid. Making this his normal manner of presentation means that when he actually is having to speak to someone who is being stoopid, they won’t take offense.

8 However, to quibble with Johnson on another matter: he has been saying, as he does in the talk linked in Footnote 2 above, that the Iran attacks on a former US base in Syria, Al Tanf, were pointless because the base had been vacated for years. Vanessa Beeley, who has spent a lot of time on the ground in Syria and still has contacts there, begs to differ.

She says the base was recently restored to service. From Why did Iran target the US Occupation base at Al Tanf, Syria? On Friday 17th July, Iran carried out an extensive attack on the US occupation base at Al Tanf in Syria. A drone and missile strike targeted a US Special Operations Command base in south-eastern Syria..

the first strike on Syrian territory since the toppling of the former government in December 2024. In a statement, the IRGC said its aerospace forces conducted what it described as the 11th phase of “Operation Nasr-2,” targeting the strategically located base near Syria’s borders with Iraq and Jordan.

The IRGC further claimed the attack destroyed a radar installation and several U.S. military helicopters, while alleging that many American personnel were killed. This strike occurred as the build up of both Turkish and HTS military forces increases inside Syria, along the border with Lebanon and in the coastal region to the north of Lebanon.

I have been reporting on this here and here. Syrian sources provided more detail on the attack: Despite previous reports of an almost total evacuation of the Al Tanf base, located on the borders of Syria, Iraq and Jordan, almost 5 months ago – the intensity of the strikes suggested a shift in the site’s operational status.

This was not an empty base, in fact, according to sources, the IRGC’s tracking systems and human intelligence in the region detected U.S. forces airdropping “Special Forces” units into the base approximately two weeks before the attack. Analysis would suggest that the purpose of these drops might be to prepare for a ground incursion across Iraqi territory (Sulaymaniyah Axis) in coordination with the local Kurdish separatist factions in Iraq.

One military analyst told me: The attack reflects the operator’s ability to breach the secrecy surrounding U.S. movements and to convert radio and visual data into precise target coordinates. According to reports from inside Syria, the strikes inflicted direct damage on the base’s newly constructed infrastructure, neutralised the US elite combat force and derailed the Iraq-Axis operation against Iran.

Of course, US media will not report on the planned operations or on the number of casualties – such a critical security breach and the significant scale of damage, as reported, will not be revealed. 9 Maybe mines?

Yves Smith

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyRussia

Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings extend slide on fresh US-Iran attacks

○ 1 source

According to Kpler data, four commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday—two exiting (one carrying petrochemicals and one empty) and two entering (a bitumen tanker and an oil tanker)—down from seven the prior day, with no very large crude carriers or liquefied natural gas tankers observed.

Yemen's Houthis stated they were imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported receiving multiple accounts of a tanker struck by an unknown projectile in the strait, while Greek shipping company Dynacom Tankers stated that two of its vessels were hit by projectiles off Oman and a third by a drone at Russia's Novorossiysk terminal.

Location: Strait of Hormuz

SECTIONS Strait

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

US and Iran dig in over the Strait of Hormuz, showing the limits of intensifying airstrikes

○ 1 source

U.S. and Iranian forces have conducted daily strikes in the Strait of Hormuz region following the collapse of an interim ceasefire, according to reports. The Trump administration has stated openness to diplomacy while announcing further retaliation for attacks on U.

S. personnel, and gasoline prices have risen amid the renewed exchanges. An analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies described the escalations as reflecting possible miscalculations by both sides, without confirmed evidence of their long-term effects.

Location: Strait of Hormuz

BEN FINLEY and FARNOUSH AMIRI, Associated Press

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

Mediators Presented Ceasefire Proposal to US, Iran - Reports

○ 1 source

According to reports citing unnamed sources, mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented a 10-day ceasefire proposal to the United States and Iran. The proposal reportedly calls for a halt to hostilities, resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and efforts to preserve a memorandum of understanding signed by Washington and Tehran on June 18.

The US administration is reviewing the plan while preparing for possible failure, and Israel has been placed on high alert.

Location: Iran

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