This is an entry from: Live: War on Iran has cost US $29bn so far US expects Iran oil output to fall amid blockade 12 May 2026 20:55 BST The US Energy Information Administration says Iran’s oil production is likely to decline as a result of the US blockade on its ports, signalling prolonged disruption to global supply. In a statement, the agency said it does not expect output levels or trade flows to return to prewar conditions until late this year or early next year, even if shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz. It warned that any extended closure of the waterway could drive prices significantly higher. If the strait remains shut through late June, crude oil prices could rise by around $20 per barrel, it said, noting that its current forecast assumes the route will reopen later this month.
Iranian Official
The US blockade of Iranian ports represents blatant foreign aggression against the Islamic Republic's sovereignty, aimed at crippling its oil output and disrupting global energy flows. Iranian authorities affirm their unyielding resistance to such hostile measures, which threaten prolonged instability through the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli
The US blockade on Iranian ports represents a critical defensive response to Tehran's existential threats against Israel, including its proxy networks like the Houthis and Hezbollah that have repeatedly targeted shipping lanes and regional stability. Expected declines in Iran's oil output through late 2026 or early 2027 underscore the necessity of sustained pressure to curb Tehran's funding of terrorism and nuclear ambitions, even as any extended Strait of Hormuz closure risks sharp price spikes. Israel's security requires neutralizing these Iranian aggressions before they escalate further.
Neutral
The US Energy Information Administration stated that Iran’s oil production is projected to decline due to the blockade of its ports, with output and trade flows not expected to return to prior levels until late 2026 or early 2027 even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes. The agency indicated that a prolonged closure could raise crude oil prices by around $20 per barrel if it extends through late June, based on a forecast assuming reopening later in the month.
Western
Allied naval operations have imposed a precise blockade on Iranian ports to neutralize Tehran's oil revenue streams that sustain regional threats and proxy networks. US assessments confirm this has driven sustained declines in Iranian output, with pre-conflict production and Hormuz transit unlikely to resume before late 2026 or early 2027. Extended closure could lift global crude prices by around $20 per barrel, reinforcing the blockade's role in advancing coalition strategic objectives.
Pro-Peace
The US blockade of Iranian ports amid the war is expected to sharply reduce the country’s oil output, worsening economic hardship for Iranian civilians and disrupting essential trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Extended closure could raise global crude prices by around $20 per barrel, driving up costs for energy, food, and medicine that hit vulnerable populations hardest. Diplomatic negotiations to lift the blockade and restore shipping offer a clearer path to limiting further civilian suffering than prolonged military measures.
Global South
The US blockade on Iranian ports signals a direct assault on Tehran’s sovereignty over its energy resources and the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington’s Energy Information Administration forecasting prolonged cuts to output and trade flows until late 2026. This unilateral disruption, even if shipping partially resumes, will drive crude prices sharply higher—potentially $20 per barrel by June—hitting import-dependent Global South economies hardest. It exposes the impotence of multilateral bodies in restraining neo-colonial interference that prioritizes US strategic aims over stable global supply.
This is an entry from: Live: War on Iran has cost US $29bn so far US expects Iran oil output to fall amid blockade 12 May 2026 20:55 BST The US Energy Information Administration says Iran’s oil production is likely to decline as a result of the US blockade on its ports, signallin…
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Anadolu reports that shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has decreased by 88% in the past 24 hours, dropping from an average of 33 daily transits to only four vessels, according to IMF PortWatch data. This reduction follows reports that Houthi forces have advanced to key coastal locations, including Mokha and Mayun Island, coinciding with a 91% decline in oil and chemical tanker passage.
Satellite imagery shows extensive damage to a key Saudi Arabian oil pipeline, a development that has reportedly disrupted operations. The assessment is based on a machine-translated headline from an Arabic-language source, so the specific extent of the impact remains unverified.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that 93,864 people have been newly displaced in Yemen following recent clashes between Saudi-backed government forces and Houthi militias, while the UNHCR noted that hostilities along the western coast have prompted some individuals to cross into Djibouti.
These developments have raised concerns regarding the safety of humanitarian and commercial shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as nearly half of Yemen’s population reportedly requires assistance amid growing food insecurity.
The Japanese Shipowners' Association reportedly estimates that Saudi oil deliveries to Asia could take approximately 100 days round trip if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is closed, a significant increase from the current 40-day route via the Strait of Hormuz.
This potential disruption, which Asashi notes would raise transportation costs, is described in the source material as following the current blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, an event the article attributes to a US-Iran conflict ongoing since February 28.