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strikeApr 15, 2026

US-Iran Peace Hopes Push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to Record Highs

Summary

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed up +0.80%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.40%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.79%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +1.41%. Stock indexes settled mostly higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs. Optimism around a potential peace deal in the Middle East is supporting stocks. The AP reported on Wednesday that the US and Iran reached an "in-principle agreement" to extend the ceasefire to allow for more diplomacy. The US and Iran are considering extending their ceasefire, which ends on Tuesday, by another two weeks to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement. The weakness in industrial stocks on Wednesday, over concerns about US metals tariffs, weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily. The US military began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and President Trump threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance. Iran said it would target all ports in and close to the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened. Wednesday’s US economic news is mixed for stocks. The Apr Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions rose +11.2 to a 5-month high of 11.0, stronger than expectations of 0.0. Also, the Mar import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Conversely, the Apr NAHB housing market index fell -4 to a 7-month low of 34, weaker than expectations of 37. US MBA mortgage applications rose +1.8% in the week ended April 10, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -1.0% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +5.1%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -9 bp to 6.42% from 6.51% in the prior week. Comments on Wednesday from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were hawkish and negative for stocks, as she said we're still persistently missing the inflation mandate and that her baseline is the Fed is on hold for a “good while.” The Fed Beige Book stated that economic activity continued to increase at a slight-to-modest pace with moderate price growth overall, but energy and fuel costs rose "sharply" in all 12 Fed districts in the six weeks to April 6. WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) were little changed on Wednesday as the US presses on with its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the strait that call at Iranian ports or are headed there. The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait. Iran has been able to export crude oil during the war, exporting about 1.7 million bpd in March. Earnings season began this week, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years. The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting. Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.74%. China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 4-week high and closed up +0.01%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 climbed to a 1.5-month high and closed up +0.44%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Wednesday closed down by -5.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.8 bp to 4.276%. T-note prices were under pressure on Wednesday as optimism for an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire eased geopolitical risks and sparked a rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, reducing safe-haven demand for T-notes. T-notes also fell after the Apr Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions rose more than expected to a 5-month high, and after Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed is on hold for a “good while.” In addition, the Fed Beige Book stated that energy and fuel costs rose "sharply" in all 12 Fed districts, a bearish factor for T-notes. Losses in T-notes were limited after the Apr NAHB housing market index fell more than expected to a 7-month low. European government bond yields moved higher on Wednesday. The 10-year German bund yield rose +2.0 bp to 3.043%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +3.4 bp to 4.814%. Eurozone Feb industrial production rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Swaps are discounting a 21% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30. US Stock Movers Software stocks are climbing today, rebounding from their recent selloff. Atlassian (TEAM) closed up more than +10% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Datadog (DDOG) closed up more than +9%. Also, ServiceNow (NOW) closed up more than +7%, and Intuit (INTU) closed up more than +6%. In addition, Workday (WDAY) closed up more than +5%, and Microsoft (MSFT) closed up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Finally, Oracle (ORCL), Autodesk (ADSK), Adobe (ADBE), and Salesforce (CRM) closed up more than +3%. Cybersecurity stocks moved higher on Wednesday, led by a +6% increase in Cloudflare (NET) after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $222, saying it is an “AI-winner to own.” Also, Zscaler (ZS) closed up more than +6%, and Okta (OKTA) closed up more than +5%. In addition, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) closed up more than +2%, and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Fortinet (FTNT) closed up more than +1%. Industrial stocks retreated on Wednesday over concerns of US metals tariff costs. Carrier Global (CARR) closed down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Lennox International (LII) and Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) closed down more than -6%, and Ingersoll Rand (IR) and A O Smith (AOS) closed down more than -5%. In addition, Caterpillar (CAT) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) closed up more than +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after the SEC gave the go-ahead for sweeping changes to a restriction on day-trading activity by small investors. Gitlab (GTLB) closed up more than +8% after announcing a collaboration with Google Cloud to bring agentic DevSecOps to enterprise teams using Vertex AI. Snap Inc (SNAP) closed up more than +7% after laying off 16% of its global workforce in an attempt to reduce costs and achieve profitability. Morgan Stanley (MS) closed up more than +4% after reporting a Q1 equities trading revenue of $5.15 billion, better than the consensus of $4.78 billion. Broadcom (AVGO) closed up more than +3% after expanding its partnership with Meta Platforms to deploy AI infrastructure. Stellantis NV (STLA) closed up more than +1% after reporting Q1 global shipments rose +12% y/y, led by a surge in North American deliveries. Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) closed down more than -6% after a NY federal jury found that the company illegally monopolized the live events industry and overcharged fans. Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -2% after an SEC filing showed EVP Sadana sold $10.1 million of shares last Friday. Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) closed down more than -1% after Citigroup reinstated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of sell and a price target of $10. Earnings Reports(4/16/2026) Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Alcoa Corp (AA), Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), Charles Schwab Corp/The (SCHW), Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG), FNB Corp/PA (FNB), KeyCorp (KEY), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI), ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN), Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MRSH), Netflix Inc (NFLX), PepsiCo Inc (PEP), Prologis Inc (PLD), Travelers Cos Inc/The (TRV), US Bancorp (USB).On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. More news from Barchart - S&P Futures Muted After Rally, U.S. Economic Data and Earnings in Focus - Stock Index Futures Gain on Hopes for Renewed U.S.-Iran Talks, PPI Data and More Big Bank Earnings on Tap - Stocks Set to Open Lower as Oil Prices Top $100 After U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse, Big Bank Earnings Awaited - Iran Ceasefire, Bank Earnings and Other Key Things to Watch this Week The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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  • BarchartBy Barchart

    The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday closed up +0.80%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.40%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.79%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +1.41

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The US and its allies Britain, France and Germany are pushing other countries on the UN nuclear watchdog's board to pass a resolution next week reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in 20 years, diplomats said on Friday. If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The US launched an air war against Tehran on February 28 in which, together with Israel, it destroyed or badly damaged Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Iran has not let International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

Resolution would be culmination of standoff over IAEA's access to nuclear sites A resolution by the IAEA's 35-nation board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

A draft text for the resolution has yet to be formally submitted to the board and negotiations between countries over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. A draft is usually formally submitted early in the week of a board meeting. As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes.

Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons. It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making a bomb. The amount it has enriched to that level is "a matter of serious concern" to the IAEA. The IAEA believes well over 200 kg of that highly enriched uranium has survived the bombardments and is held in a tunnel complex at Isfahan and at the Natanz facility.

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The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on the Turkish bank Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi Anonim Sirketi, alleging it facilitated the transfer of Iranian oil revenues into cash and gold. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated these measures are part of "Operation Economic Outcast," an initiative launched following more than six months of conflict to pressure Iran.

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The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

Location: Iran