Iran can economically survive the US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz for at least three to four more months, four people familiar with a confidential CIA analysis told The Washington Post on Thursday. “The leadership has gotten more radical, determined, and increasingly confident they can outlast US political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance,” one US official told the Post. “Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.” Iran is adapting to the blockade by various methods, one official said. Some of its strategies include storing its oil on tanker ships that would otherwise be empty and reducing production in its oil fields. Iran's economy is "nowhere near as dire as some have claimed,” the official said. Another strategy Iran may be employing is to transport some of its oil overland, one official said. “There’s a belief they could begin moving some oil via rail through Central Asia,” the official explained, which could provide it with an economic buffer. Another senior US intelligence official, on the other hand, said that the blockade is inflicting "real, compounding damage - severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse." "Iran’s military has been badly degraded, its navy destroyed, and its leaders are in hiding," the official added. “What’s left is the regime’s appetite for civilian suffering - starving its own people to prolong a war it has already lost.” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, told the Post that Iran is losing half a billion dollars per day thanks to the US blockade. "The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable," she stated, "and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.” Iran maintains ballistic missile capabilities Sources also told the Post that the CIA analysis found that Iran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities. One US official stated that, since the start of the war, the Iranian regime has been able to recover underground storage facilities, repair damaged missiles, and assemble some new missiles. All in all, the official said, Iran retains around 75% of its pre-war mobile launcher inventory and 70% of its missile stockpile. The larger issue regarding Iranian weapons and the Strait of Hormuz, however, is their drone production capabilities. According to Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, “All it takes is one drone to hit a ship and no one will give insurance.” These drones can be manufactured in small, easily concealed facilities, a US official informed the Post. Citrinowicz also said that the main problem is that Iran doesn't think it needs to capitulate, even if the blockade persists for several months.
Iran can economically survive the US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz for at least three to four more months, four people familiar with a confidential CIA analysis told The Washington Post on Thursday. “The leadership has gotten more radical, determined, and increasingly co…
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A tanker identified as the Kaifan was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a July 21 report from UK Maritime Trade Operations. No ships were observed transiting the strait that day. Attribution of the strike and links to prior incidents have not been confirmed by the vessel’s owner.
Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.
Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.
Opening summary: Iran claims attacks on strait of Hormuz ships amid fresh US strikes Welcome to our live coverage of the latest developments in the Middle East crisis. Iran attacked a tanker in the strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced they were imposing an immediate maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea after the two sides traded fire last week for the first time in years.
A Houthi official said the Bab al-Mandeb strait – at the southern end of the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s trade usually passes – would be closed to the Saudis in response to the kingdom’s “unjust blockade on Yemenis for over 10 years”.
Saudi Arabia said it would take “all necessary measures to protect its vessels in accordance with international law”. A 10 consecutive night of US airstrikes has not compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies.
But even as Iran’s president said the country had returned “full-scale war”, the Iranian interior minister travelled to Pakistan – a key mediator in the conflict – for talks. In key developments: The latest US strikes came hours after Donald Trump said Iran would pay “many times over” for killing US soldiers after multiple service members were killed in action over the weekend.
A tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the Hormuz strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack as well as two other attacks on ships in the waterway on Monday.
The US military’s Central Command said its latest airstrikes were to “degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the strait and included hitting military command centres and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian media reported strikes in parts of the country including Bandar Abbas, Tabriz and Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational civilian nuclear power.
Iran’s launched attacks in response against Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, which all host US forces. Oil prices softened after hitting their highest levels in more than a month in the previous session. Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $88.87 a barrel by 0052 GMT on Tuesday while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was steady at $82.
47 a barrel. Democrats have seized on the deaths of three US troops killed in Iranian strikes to urge Trump to urgently reverse his resumption of the war with Iran amid widespread anxiety over climbing casualties. The Lebanese army began taking charge of security in three southern villages, the US said, as a deal to secure an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah faced its first test on the ground.
US forces struck the tanker Settebello in the Gulf of Oman on June 10, killing three Indian crew members when munitions hit the engine room and adjacent areas. Maritime tracking data indicate the vessel had transported Iranian oil under US sanctions for several years and conducted offshore transfers prior to the strike.
The US military described the action as a precision operation, while reports note the ship was stationary at the time.