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strikeMay 22, 2026

US or Iran: Who will win the Hormuz endurance game?

Summary

US or Iran: Who will win the Hormuz endurance game?May 22, 2026 Deadlocked, dysfunctional and dangerous. That is how the Strait of Hormuz standoff is increasingly being described. Now approaching its fourth month, the crisis off Iran's coast is marked by mutual blockades. Tehran has been charging ships up to $2 million (€1.73 million) for safe passage through the strait, while the United States enforces a naval embargo, turning back vessels carrying Iranian oil exports. These competing blockades have failed to deliver decisive results. Some Iranian ships continue to slip through, while several Asian shipping firms have agreed to pay tolls, despite such fees violating international maritime law. Fragile negotiations between the US and Iran to reopen Hormuz have, meanwhile, stuttered several times, sparking the risk of escalation into a wider regional conflict. Which side will fold first? Yet, despite Pakistan-led mediation efforts and a proposed one-page memorandum aimed at ending hostilities and reopening Hormuz, neither side appears ready to blink first. Dania Thafer, executive director of the Washington-based think tank Gulf International Forum (GIF), believes Trump’s on-off military threats — intended to increase its leverage over Iran — may have backfired. "The Iranian response suggests the opposite," Thafer told DW. "They interpret it as the US lacking the will to escalate the war." US President Donald Trump is facing increasing pressure both at home and abroad to avoid further military action, with Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar urging restraint. Surging oil prices and rising domestic inflation are adding political heat ahead of the US mid-term elections in November. Iran's oil revenues depleting fast Iran, meanwhile, is losing some $435 million per day in trade, nearly two-thirds of which comes from exports of mainly crude oil, Miad Maleki, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), estimated in April. This means that with the US blockade stretching to 39 days on Friday, Iran's public finances have already suffered an estimated $17 billion loss. According to Maleki, this is in addition to around $144 billion in economic damage caused by US-Israeli strikes in the first weeks of the war. Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), thinks Iran may have gained "outsized leverage" through its missile attacks on shipping and Gulf neighbors, but it is now being "hit hard" by the disruption to its own oil exports. "Despite Tehran's bluster about regime resilience, its economy is not blockade-proof," Ozecelik told DW. Gulf states caught in the crossfire Experts describe the standoff as a dangerous waiting game. Both the US and Iran believe they have time on their side. However, the Gulf states are far more risk-averse and economically exposed. Their frustration with the deadlock has hardened into coordinated pressure for a diplomatic breakthrough. Gulf states have urged Trump to shelve plans for further strikes and give negotiations more time. In private, they've warned that a frozen conflict would jeopardize plans to transition their economies away from fossil fuels. Gulf states are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on ambitious industrial and tourism projects. They strongly support the Pakistan‑mediated talks and a joint US–UN initiative to reopen the Strait without Iranian tolls or control claims. Iran seeks regional security hegemony As a power that sees itself reshaping the Middle East region, Iran is also using the war to push for long‑term gains. GIF's Thafer thinks Iran's ambitions go well beyond war victory and seek to "flip the regional order in its favor" in the long term. "They want the Gulf states to expel the US and bring the region under an Iranian security framework," she told DW, adding that this approach is not in the interest of Gulf states, despite their frustrations with Washington. While remaining cautiously optimistic about a breakthrough in talks, Washington insists on a full reopening of the Strait, an end to all Iranian nuclear enrichment activity and no sanctions relief without major concessions. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned that military action remains an option if Iran does not compromise. "The challenge is that there is no magic target that the US can hit that will immediately translate into regime surrender," Ozcelik told DW. "If civilian infrastructure is targeted, this may trigger Tehran to execute a harsher retaliation against Gulf states." Among Iranians, the pain worsens Tehran maintains it will stand firm, despite the growing hardship facing ordinary Iranians, which is unlikely to ease soon. "Tehran's various proposals to extract fees for transiting the Strait of Hormuz or charging for undersea cables is indicative of the realization by some pragmatic voices in Tehran that the Iranian economy and its people are in for a protracted period of hardship, even if sanction relief is somehow agreed," Ozcelik said. Annual inflation in Iran has surged above 54%, with prices for some food products more than doubling. A nationwide internet blackout has lasted more than 80 days, further isolating citizens and crippling daily life. "While Trump sees this [winning the war] as part of his presidential legacy, the Iranians view it as a matter of regime survival and the future of their country," Thafer underlined. Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru

Perspectives

Iranian Official

From Iran's perspective, the US naval embargo and threats represent blatant foreign aggression against the Islamic Republic's sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway within its defensive perimeter. Tehran has rightly asserted its rights by imposing passage fees to counter this unlawful blockade, while steadfastly resisting American pressure that seeks to strangle Iranian oil exports and regional influence. Despite Pakistan-led mediation and stalled talks, Iran remains resolute in defending its sovereignty, refusing to yield to external coercion.

Israeli

From Israel's perspective, Iran's extortionate tolls and blockade-running in the Strait of Hormuz represent a direct existential threat, enabling Tehran to finance its vast proxy network of terror groups encircling the Jewish state. The US naval embargo is a vital defensive necessity to choke off these revenues and prevent escalation into wider regional war. Any perceived American hesitation only emboldens the regime's aggression.

Neutral

As of May 22, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been subject to reported mutual restrictions for nearly four months, with Iranian authorities levying passage fees of up to $2 million on some vessels and the United States enforcing a naval embargo on Iranian oil exports. Certain ships have continued transit while some Asian shipping firms have reportedly paid fees. Pakistan-mediated talks and a proposed memorandum have not produced an agreement, and a Gulf International Forum representative stated that Iranian officials view U.S. military threats as indicating limited willingness to escalate.

Western

US and coalition naval forces maintain a precise embargo on Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz to neutralize Tehran's coercive tolls and threats to global energy routes. Operations prioritize freedom of navigation and deterrence of escalation, even as limited evasions persist and talks via Pakistani mediation remain stalled. This approach underscores strategic commitment to securing maritime access against Iranian disruption.

Pro-Peace

The prolonged US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, now in its fourth month, has trapped civilians across the region and beyond in rising humanitarian costs, from disrupted global oil supplies driving up food and medicine prices to the daily risks faced by merchant crews and coastal communities. Fragile talks have repeatedly stalled amid mutual blockades, heightening the threat of wider conflict that would inflict devastating civilian casualties. Diplomatic alternatives, such as Pakistan-led mediation and a proposed memorandum to reopen the strait, offer a clear path to de-escalation that must be prioritized over military posturing.

Global South

The Strait of Hormuz crisis exposes US neo-colonial pressure on Iranian sovereignty through an embargo that disregards non-aligned states' rights to manage their coastal resources and trade. Iran's tolls and selective enforcement by both sides reveal the failure of international maritime institutions, which selectively uphold rules favoring Western interests while Asian and Global South shipping suffers. Pakistan-led mediation remains one of the few neutral avenues, yet external military threats continue to undermine any equitable resolution.

Actors involved

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Sources

  • Nik MartinBy Nik Martin

    US or Iran: Who will win the Hormuz endurance game?May 22, 2026 Deadlocked, dysfunctional and dangerous. That is how the Strait of Hormuz standoff is increasingly being described. Now approaching its fourth month, the crisis off Iran's coast is marked by mutual blockades. Tehran

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