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strikeMay 1, 2026

WSJ, AP: Iran Learning to Regret Pulling Pin on Hormuz Strategy; UPDATE: 'No Deal,' Says Trump

Summary

What happens when you try to blockade an international waterway when you no longer have a blue-water navy? Iran learned the answer to that question the hard way. The question remains: will they wise up in time to salvage their economy, and possibly, what's left of their industrial infrastructure? Perhaps, but not likely. The Wall Street Journal reports that the regime remnants of the IRGC have started to realize the extent of their miscalculation, however: Tehran thought it was gaining the upper hand after the war started in February as it attacked ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz, shutting down commercial traffic and blocking a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Six weeks into the conflict, the U.S. responded by blockading shipments from all Iranian ports. That shut down Iran’s network of shadow ships, which for years defied U.S. sanctions on Iran’s substantial oil exports by going dark at sea before clandestinely transferring their cargoes to China. The tankers have been unable to breach a cordon of U.S. warships that have chased them all the way to the Indian Ocean. ... Alternative trade routes won’t be sufficient. Iran has been working to send some of its oil by rail to China and to import foodstuff by road from the Caucasus and Pakistan. Only 40% of Iran’s trade can be redirected away from blockaded ports, the Iranian Shipping Association said Thursday via the Fars news agency, which is affiliated with Iran’s security services. That number seems far too optimistic. Iran exported over 90% of its oil through Kharg Island and onto tankers, the most efficient and expeditious method possible. Their fields connect via pipeline to Kharg to make the process even more efficient. Perhaps Iran built a standby capacity to ship by rail, but that seems very unlikely, and at any rate, rail distribution is far slower and has much less capacity. Plus, if the US and Israel restart kinetic offensive operations, those rail systems will be at the top of their target lists, assuming they haven't already been hit. Apparently, that lesson hasn't sunk into the heads of the hardliners yet: The moderates believe in holding fire and negotiating a favorable deal with President Trump, whom they view as eager to get out of the messy war as soon as possible. They worry Iranians are growing tired of the conflict after an initial nationalist uptick. ... A growing camp of hard-liners believe Iran has to take the military initiative and start a shooting war again to send oil prices soaring higher and increase the pressure on Trump. They argue that the blockade goes beyond the sanctions Iran has faced down in the past and amounts to an act of war that must have a military response. Don't forget that the only reason the blockade exists at all is that these same geniuses thought closing the Strait of Hormuz would accomplish the same thing. Trump had agreed to a ceasefire after six weeks of war, during which Trump allowed Iran to export oil normally. The ceasefire agreement required Iran to allow free movement through the Strait and to stop dropping mines in the shipping lanes. The IRGC leadership instead attacked shipping and kept dropping mines, which prompted Trump to order a complete blockade, which he now refuses to lift unless and until the Iranian regime remnants capitulate on the nuclear issues. Not only has the blockade prompted by Ahmad Vahidi's Hormuz strategy pushed the Iranian economy to the point of complete collapse, but so has Vahidi's Internet shutdown. The IRGC has kept the Internet off to the public for its own security, but that has amplified the damage being done by the blockade, the Associated Press reports: Iran’s state-run news agency IRNA quoted a deputy minister of communications and information technology, Ehsan Chitsaz, as saying the cut to the internet cost Iran between $2.8 to $4.3 million each day. But the true cost for the Iranian economy could be far higher. The internet monitoring organization NetBlocks estimates each day of an internet shutdown in Iran costs the country over $37 million. ... In 2021 alone, a government estimate suggested Iranian businesses made as much as $833 million a year in sales from social media sites, wrote Dara Conduit, a lecturer at the University of Melbourne in Australia, in an article published by the journal Democratization in June. She cited a separate estimate suggesting internet disruptions around the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests cost the Iranian economy $1.6 billion. The 2022 internet disruptions’ “far-reaching and blanket economic consequences risked further heightening tensions in Iran and spurring the mobilization of new anti-regime cohorts onto the streets at a time when the regime was already facing one of the most serious existential threats of its lifetime,” Conduit wrote. The IRGC is losing $450 million a day in the blockade, too. Keeping the internet off may help prevent opposition groups from organizing a popular revolt, but it's making the rage at the regime worse by the day at the same time. That may be why the regime is attempting another good-cop offer for the US: Iran has delivered its response to the latest U.S. amendments to a draft plan to end the war, a regional source confirmed to Axios. The big picture: The Iranian response is a signal that the diplomacy is not entirely frozen. It comes as President Trump maintains a U.S. naval blockade and considers new military action against Iran. - Iranian state media also reported on the response delivered to the U.S. on Thursday via Pakistani mediators. Unless this contains an offer to verifiably transfer Iran's entire store of highly enriched uranium out of the country, it's not going to change anything. By this time, the US clearly understands that the IRGC is neither connected to nor willing to be bound by the diplomatic track. That track consists of attempts by the so-called "moderates" – Masoud Pezeshkian and Abbas Araghchi – to sell another ceasefire that the IRGC will refuse to honor. If diplomacy had any value in this situation, the Strait of Hormuz would already be open, and Iran would still be exporting its oil. That puts Trump at a decision point, albeit not necessarily acute. He can continue to let the IRGC strangle itself and its regime and let matters take their natural course in the collapse. Trump could choose to accelerate that process by reopening offensive kinetic actions, although the IRGC apparently might be stupid enough to start first and let Trump get even more political support for renewed bombings. Don't be surprised if Trump decides it's acute enough this weekend to escalate. Update: As expected, Trump isn't falling for no banana in the tailpipe: Trump on Iran: "They want to make a deal, but I'm not satisfied with it" pic.twitter.com/0MqlAOUwGm— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 1, 2026 US President Donald Trump said on Friday he was "not satisfied" with Iran's latest proposal for an end to hostilities, adding that negotiations are currently being conducted over the phone. Speaking to the media outside the White House, Trump said that Iran wants to make a deal "because they have no military left." "They are having tremendous discord in getting along in Iran; their leadership is really disjointed, and there are three, maybe four groups. They all want to make a deal, but they are all very messed up," he told reporters. One reporter asked if Trump planned to conduct strikes on Iran. He replied, "Why would I tell you that?" I suspect, though, that Trump's looking at these fractures and wondering whether they will accelerate on their own or if a new shove will work better. Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all. Help us report the truth about the Trump administration's decisive actions to keep Americans safe and bring peace to the world. Join HotAir VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your VIP membership.

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  • Ed MorrisseyBy Ed Morrissey

    What happens when you try to blockade an international waterway when you no longer have a blue-water navy? Iran learned the answer to that question the hard way. The question remains: will they wise up in time to salvage their economy, and possibly, what's left of their industria

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US and Iran trade strikes as tensions escalate amid renewed conflict - US Central Command has struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one near the Kharg Island export hub, after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles at two US Navy vessels.

- Admiral Brad Cooper declared that the US would exact a higher economic cost for attacks on its ships, confirming that no American personnel were harmed during the strike. - Iran's Revolutionary Guard retaliated by threatening further attacks on US military ships, claiming to have targeted three US-linked vessels and three tankers navigating unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

- The Iranian Red Crescent has requested an International Criminal Court investigation into a suspected US strike on an Iranian wedding that left at least five people dead, accusing Washington of war crimes. - The recent exchanges represent a dangerous deepening of the wider conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has flared repeatedly since initial strikes in February.

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Iran said its forces attacked a US naval drone trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, hours after targeting ships in retaliation for American strikes on three oil tankers. The latest round of clashes, which began with US raids last week, comes amid a deadlock in their six-month war.

Iran has maintained its stranglehold on the strategic Strait of Hormuz while Washington continues a counter-blockade of Iranian ports. Washington is also seeking to choke Iran's economy, rolling out sanctions on entities with financial links to the Islamic republic in a bid to force it into submission.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the ideological arm of Iran's military, said today that it "attacked an American military unmanned surface vessel" attempting to enter the strait, according to a statement carried by state television. Hours earlier, the IRGC said its naval forces "targeted three oil tankers on the unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz and three vessels affiliated with the child-killing America in other areas".

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"Following Iran's failed attacks, CENTCOM permanently disabled the IRGC crude oil carriers M/T Downy off the coast of Kharg Island and M/T Stark 1 near Jask," it said. "American forces also completely destroyed the unladen crude oil carrier M/T Kylo ...

in the Gulf of Oman, striking the vessel in multiple critical locations to render it inoperable after the crew was directed to abandon ship," he said. Video posted by CENTCOM showed large fireballs and billowing flames after projectiles slammed into the ships.

The three vessels were "part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network that funds the IRGC and its regional proxies", it said. 'Higher economic cost' The IRGC meanwhile claimed the two American warships they targeted had been "forced to retreat" after "suffering damage", but CENTCOM said those ships successfully evaded Iranian attacks.

CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper said after the operation: "If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost - taking out three of yours." The Iranian foreign ministry hit out at Washington over the strikes on oil tankers, calling them "illegal and aggressive actions".

A correspondent for Iranian state TV in Jask in the southern province of Hormozgan said one of the tankers was empty and the second was carrying oil. The crews were transported to shore on lifeboats, they said. Another state TV correspondent on Kharg Island said the attack there caused no casualties.

Iran's Khatam-al Anbiya central military command warned that if the US continued its attacks, then Tehran's retaliation against US warships would be "more severe than before, and there is a possibility of their expansion". The administration of US President Donald Trump has tried to downplay the significance of the six-month conflict, which has proven increasingly unpopular at home as midterm elections near.

US Vice President JD Vance went so far as to say that he "wouldn't call it a war". Mr Trump reiterated that view on Friday, calling the war "small potatoes" for Washington. Iran's Security Chief Mohsen Rezaei warned this week that the Islamic republic had adopted a "new strategy" against Washington that "will shatter your foundations".

The US has been trying to step up pressure on Tehran in a bid to wrestle control of the Hormuz strait, through which one-fifth of world oil supplies previously flowed. A fragile ceasefire between the two sides collapsed in July after attacks on commercial ships in the strategic waterway.

Mr Trump has in recent weeks repeatedly threatened to claim sovereignty over the strait, even posting a map showing it as "new US territory". Mr Vance has insisted the US will not reopen talks with Iran until it ends attacks on commercial shipping in Hormuz.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN
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CAIRO (AP) — Iran said Sunday it struck an unmanned U.S. vessel trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, the latest salvo in a new flare-up of fighting between the two countries. The U.S. did not immediately confirm the purported attack, which came a day after the U.

S. military said forces struck three Iranian oil tankers in response to a missile attack on Navy warships. The war began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28. But since a ceasefire agreement was announced in June, on-and-off fighting has persisted with both sides trying to inflict military and economic pain as negotiations have collapsed.

Strikes come about a week after fighting resumed The U.S. and Iran resumed attacks last week, following a month of relative calm, with the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian communities along it again being targeted. At least five people were killed earlier in the week during a U.

S. bombardment of southern Iran. The Trump administration appears to have adopted a dual-prong approach to the conflict, responding militarily to attacks on the strait while going after foreign financial institutions that handle Iran’s money.

But Tehran's hard-line new senior leaders have signaled the willingness to dig in after weathering decades of sanctions. Iran has found ways over the years to circumvent sanctions, and now the U.S. blockade, and get its oil to buyers to help ease growing economic pressures.

That relies in part on a shadow fleet transporting its oil. Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear program, the issue that contributed to the outbreak of the war, was meant to be addressed in negotiations that fell apart soon after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in mid-June.

Diplomats say the U.S., Britain, France and Germany seek to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council for failure to comply with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations. Instead, Tehran's new leverage focuses on the Strait of Hormuz that is crucial to global oil and natural gas shipments and was seen as an international waterway before the war began.

___ Magdy reported from Cairo and Frankel reported from Jerusalem.

strikeUnverifiedUSIran
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Iran attacks naval drone near Hormuz after US strikes 3 oil tankers The latest round of clashes, which began with US raids last week, comes amid a deadlock in the six-month war Iran said on Sunday that its forces attacked a US naval drone trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, hours after targeting ships in retaliation for American strikes on three oil tankers.

The latest round of clashes, which began with US raids last week, comes amid a deadlock in their six-month war. Iran has maintained its stranglehold on the strategic Strait of Hormuz while Washington continues a counter-blockade of Iranian ports. Washington is also seeking to choke Iran’s economy, rolling out sanctions on entities with financial links to the Islamic Republic in a bid to force it into submission.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the ideological arm of Iran’s military, said on Sunday it “attacked an American military unmanned surface vessel” attempting to enter the strait, according to a statement carried by state television. Hours earlier, the IRGC said its naval forces “targeted three oil tankers on the unauthorised route of the Strait of Hormuz and three vessels affiliated with the child-killing America in other areas”.

Location: Iran