Conflict Timeline

Goldman Sachs commodities analyst Daan Struyven stated that Brent crude futures could exceed $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter if shipping disruptions persist through the Strait of Hormuz, though this scenario is not the firm's base case. Brent is currently trading in the low $90s following reported tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea.

Struyven projects prices near $80 in the fourth quarter and $75 the next year assuming reduced tensions, while noting upside risks if Persian Gulf flows fall below 45% of pre-conflict levels.