Summary

Former Defense Minister Boyko Noev has warned that Bulgaria has systematically underestimated the threat to its security since Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the start of the war in Ukraine, arguing that the country remains poorly prepared to defend its airspace against low-flying drones and has failed to properly investigate a series of explosions targeting its military industry. Noev, a diplomat and national security expert who served twice as defense minister, said Bulgaria’s main external kinetic threat could come from the east, particularly from drones. He recalled asking a former defense minister two or three years ago what was being done to protect Bulgarian airspace. “Don’t worry, NATO is protecting us,” he said he was told. According to Noev, recent incidents involving drones close to Bulgarian territory have exposed the weakness of that approach. He said Bulgaria is not currently prepared to protect its airspace below 3,000 meters, although efforts are now being made to address the gap. He pointed to the existence of Bulgarian companies producing drones and anti-drone systems and said the country should urgently join European efforts to develop joint anti-missile and anti-drone capabilities. A broader “Coalition of the Willing” is being formed in Europe, he said, offering access to technology, expertise and Ukrainian experience. NATO provides a mechanism for collective defense, but there are specific actions that each country must take on its own, Noev argued. He said the same principle applies to a second security issue that he believes Bulgaria has failed to address properly: repeated explosions at facilities linked to the defense industry. Noev described Bulgaria as “the most attacked country in Europe” when it comes to a pattern of incidents targeting its military industry and said the explosion near Tryavna should not be treated as an isolated event. While expressing respect for the police and investigators working on individual cases, he questioned whether local authorities have the capacity to handle the wider issue. He argued that the investigation into the latest explosion should urgently be taken over by the National Investigation Service and, at a minimum, by the Sofia City Prosecutor’s Office. Noev pointed to the previous explosion in Lovnidol, where an unexploded device was reportedly found and its Russian origin established. He said prosecutors later terminated the proceedings on the grounds that the device had not exploded and therefore could not have caused the incident. He also challenged statements that the latest explosion was caused by an internal problem. “Yes, the explosion started from the inside. But all explosions in Bulgaria started from the inside,” Noev said, arguing that the origin of an explosion does not establish whether it was accidental or deliberate. According to him, the methods used in suspected attacks have changed over time. Until around 2015-2016, explosive devices were allegedly used, while more recent incidents have involved smoke, fire and explosions. He said the incidents at ammunition facilities in Karnobat fit the same pattern and have not been adequately investigated. “I am not a sapper or a chemist, but there is no case where ready-made new production, shells, simply self-detonated. Something caused this - something or someone,” Noev said. He recalled that in some earlier cases prosecutors themselves identified alleged Russian intelligence operatives as suspects. He also referred to investigations in the Czech Republic involving Russian military intelligence officers known as Mishkin and Chepiga, whom he linked to the GRU’s Unit 29155 and the poisoning of former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal. For Noev, the accumulation of incidents provides grounds for considering deliberate attacks on Bulgaria’s defense industry as a reasonable possibility. He cited explosions at the state-owned plant in Sopot in 2015, as well as incidents involving Arsenal and the Kostenets plant, arguing that the pattern extends beyond a single company. “When something looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it is most likely a duck,” Noev said, describing the concept as a reasonable assumption in judicial practice. He questioned why such possibilities had not been properly examined in previous investigations. Noev said he had appeared as a witness in several of the cases and had seen large volumes of documentation. In his view, prosecutors have repeatedly “covered up, belittled or watered down” investigations so that they produced no meaningful results. He said the problem extends across different periods of the Bulgarian prosecution service, naming the tenures of Sotir Tsatsarov, Ivan Geshev and Borislav Sarafov. As one example, he cited the prosecutor involved in the Novichok investigation, whom he said kept portraits of Vladimir Putin and Joseph Stalin in his office. According to Noev, when this was raised, the response was that the prosecutor had the right to hold such personal beliefs. He further alleged that in some cases prosecutors and investigators focused on witnesses rather than the perpetrators of the explosions. Noev said he had reported such concerns to the State Agency for National Security and the prosecution service. He also accused the security service during the governments associated with Boyko Borisov and Delyan Peevski of working to conceal such cases and acting on political instructions. More broadly, however, he said the issue should not be reduced to individual politicians or officials. “The prosecutor’s office has a systemic problem - the infiltration of foreign interests,” Noev said, arguing that this was a key reason why explosions and poisonings had continued for years without conclusive results despite highly publicized investigations into alleged espionage networks. He said the central question for politicians and lawmakers should be why these cases repeatedly fail to reach a clear conclusion. In his view, the failure to expose and punish those responsible creates a sense of impunity and increases the likelihood of further attacks. Noev called for deep institutional reform, not only within the prosecution service but also within the security agency, which he said should be freed from improper activities. With Parliament beginning a new session, he urged lawmakers to move beyond political confrontations and focus on Bulgaria’s long-term security interests. The issue, he added, has a broader European dimension. Noev said more than 170 attacks and hybrid incidents have been recorded across Europe, including in Germany and Poland, and warned that such incidents are increasingly moving toward the center of the continent. He said a “coalition of the victims” is emerging in Europe and that Bulgaria should participate in the European “Coalition of the Willing,” using both its experience as a target and its accumulated knowledge. Noev urged lawmakers to summon the security services and ask directly what capabilities, legislative changes and institutional reforms they need to respond effectively. “We need to put our house in order,” he said, calling on Parliament to raise the issue above political divisions and the government to make national security a priority. “There is no other way to protect Bulgaria,” Noev concluded.