Ceasefire begins as 12 million barrels of oil transit Strait of Hormuz

Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.

Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.

US forces struck the tanker Settebello in the Gulf of Oman on June 10, killing three Indian crew members when munitions hit the engine room and adjacent areas. Maritime tracking data indicate the vessel had transported Iranian oil under US sanctions for several years and conducted offshore transfers prior to the strike.

The US military described the action as a precision operation, while reports note the ship was stationary at the time.

Iranian officials reported strikes on US radar and air defense sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, along with the interception of two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States conducted strikes on Iranian targets following the deaths of three US soldiers, with the Pentagon stating the actions aimed to degrade capabilities affecting shipping.

Houthi forces in Yemen announced plans to blockade Saudi ports, while both US and Iranian leaders issued statements on further escalation.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are the site of Indian infrastructure projects, including the Great Nicobar Project and a proposed greenfield airport intended for civilian and naval use. An analysis published by the Indian defence portal IDRW states that U.

S. officials regard the developments as strengthening maritime security, surveillance and logistics in the Indo-Pacific. The islands’ location has long been cited in Indian statements as relevant to New Delhi’s maritime responsibilities in the Indian Ocean region.