strikeJun 2, 2026

China and Russia will have their say in who wins a US-Iran endurance match

Summary

With negotiations hitting a new wall over Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon, China and Russia are positioned to play an influential role in determining the degree to which the United States and Iran can outlast one another in a long war. Tehran has long invested in deeper cooperation with Beijing and Moscow. And while neither relationship amounts to a military alliance, the two powerful partners have maintained critical lifelines on economic, diplomatic and defense fronts despite Washington's efforts to isolate the Islamic Republic. Even as the White House faces its own growing pressure to end the confrontation due to declining popular support, rising energy costs due to the disruption to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the sustainability of depleting munitions stockpiles, however, an extended conflict is expected to severely test the limits of Iran's resilience and underline the importance of its foreign partnerships. "In Iran, a growing perception has emerged that Trump is primarily seeking to buy time," Mehdi Kharratiyan, head of the Institute for Revival of Politics think tank in Tehran, told Newsweek. "In response to such a strategy," Kharratiyan said, "Tehran would logically pursue an unprecedented strengthening of its relations with Beijing and Moscow in order to address economic challenges and, if necessary, prepare for a return to military confrontation." Test of Endurance The notion that Iran could ultimately outlast the U.S. in a protracted battle has long been at the core of Tehran's military strategy. The Islamic Republic's decentralized "mosaic" doctrine has helped the government and its defense apparatus, notably the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, not only survive decapitation strikes but also exert powerful leverage through missile and drone strikes targeting U.S. military sites, Israel, neighboring Arab states and commercial vessels throughout the region. Even Trump has acknowledged that Iranian retaliation has surpassed expectations, a factor that likely contributed to his decision to call for a ceasefire on April 8. Clashes have steadily intensified since then, however, and a U.S. naval counter-blockade of vessels docking in Iranian ports has exacerbated Iran's already precarious economic plight. "The United States appears to assess that, due to maritime pressure and mounting economic challenges, Iran would capitulate before the United States in a prolonged confrontation," Kharratiyan said. "At the same time, President Trump has little interest in allowing a new war to spiral beyond control and leave him in a politically unfavorable position on the eve of the World Cup and crucial midterm elections. He is also operating under pressure from the Israeli lobby." "Under these circumstances, his most advantageous strategy is to keep Iran engaged through negotiations within parameters favorable to Washington while signaling to financial markets that the war is likely to end soon," he added. "In practice, however, by prolonging the negotiations and maintaining a state of 'neither war nor peace,' the United States can deprive Tehran of both time and strategic initiative, ultimately increasing the likelihood that Iran will accept Trump's terms." Still, Iran's insistence on key demands, including the cessation of hostilities on all fronts, especially Lebanon, continues to frustrate U.S. negotiators. Iranian media reported Monday that Tehran's team suspended talks due to Israel's ongoing operations against Iran's ally, the Lebanese Hezbollah movement. "Iran views the issue of Lebanon—and preventing a transformation of the Shiite geopolitical position in the Middle East—as an existential and prestige-related matter," Kharratiyan said. "In all of the proposals and documents it has presented, Tehran has emphasized that the war must end on all fronts, including Lebanon." "It is therefore difficult to envision a scenario in which Iran and the United States reach a ceasefire while the Lebanon issue remains unresolved or unaddressed," he added. The dueling U.S. and Iran hard-line approaches constitute costly bets for both sides. Yet China and Russia appear prepared to raise the stakes for the White House, even if neither power has an interest in becoming directly involved in the conflict. "China and Russia have helped Iran since the war broke out, but that help has supported Iranian policy rather than shaping it," Jon Alterman, former U.S. State Department official serving today as chair in global security and geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Newsweek. "Russia and China each have an interest in the United States being distracted by threats other than themselves, and they have an interest in challenges to U.S. dominance," Alterman said. "Russia, China and Iran all object to the United States being able to sanction any country it doesn’t like and then force the world to support those sanctions." Opportunities Abound Just how far either China or Russia is willing to go to support Iran remains subject to debate. The three nations defied mounting U.S. threats to conduct trilateral naval exercises in South Africa in January and in the Persian Gulf region in February, just days leading up to the war, though material aid has proved fleeting. Iran, whose signature Shahed-style loitering munitions have emerged as a key tool in Russia's arsenal against Ukraine, has faced persistent delays in receiving advanced Russian Su-35 jets it first agreed to purchase years ago. Reports indicate that Iran has acquired some other Russian aircraft, such as Yak-130 fighters and Mi-28 attack helicopters. The countries finalized a long-awaited comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in January of last year, which included bolstering military cooperation. Unlike a similar deal forged months earlier between Russia and North Korea, it did not involve any mutual defense clause And while Tehran and Moscow have coordinated on the battlefield before, namely during their joint support for the former Syrian government prior to its sudden downfall in December 2024, neither side is expected to intervene directly on the other's behalf. China inked an earlier strategic partnership deal with Iran in 2021. The 25-year agreement focused primarily on sizable Chinese investment in the economy and infrastructure of Iran, which sells nearly all of its oil to China. Meanwhile, since the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, Chinese officials have denied U.S. intelligence allegations that Beijing had supplied Tehran with new anti-air platforms, including over-the-shoulder man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS. U.S. intelligence has also reportedly linked one such system to the downing of a U.S. F-15E jet last month, the first such incident to befall a U.S. warplane in decades. Other reports have indicated Iran has benefited from Chinese and Russian intelligence sharing, including satellite imagery platforms that may have supported Iran's precision in striking U.S. military sites and oil and gas facilities in the region. On the economic front, Iran's trade with both countries appears to be growing, utilizing the landlocked Caspian Sea to Iran's north and rail routes extending across Asia. "China has purchased large volumes of sanctioned Iranian oil, and Chinese buyers have worked closely with Iran to build what U.S. researchers and officials describe as one of the world's largest sanctions-evasion networks," Christopher Walker, vice president at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Newsweek. "Russia has reportedly been supplying Iran with intelligence on the locations of American troops, ships, and aircraft," Walker said. "Since the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran began in February of this year, Russia has continued delivering weapons components and technical expertise." Adding to this is a confluence of narratives critical of U.S. foreign policy that justifies closer partnership among Beijing, Moscow and Tehran. Iran has also formalized its drift to China and Russia by formally joining two blocs led by the powers, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2023 and the BRICS group in 2024. "These countries already have built a good deal of shared muscle movement that enables them to work together and in common cause against the U.S.," Walker said. "This includes what is now an extensive international media and propaganda infrastructure that has enabled these regimes to reinforce each other’s messages to systematically assail the U.S. and the West." "It will take a concerted and sustained approach from the U.S. and its allies to contest this already mature and resilient authoritarian support network," he added. Alterman also saw China and Russia's motivation in aiding Iran as being primarily driven by a mutual desire to counter U.S. influence. "China and Russia are more important to Iran than vice-versa," Alterman said. "China, for example, is Iran’s largest oil customer and represents more than one-third of Iran’s overall trade. Iran, by contrast, represents less than 1 percent of China’s overall trade. They each see Iran presenting opportunities, especially weakening the United States as a global power." "Each uses Iran, but neither one really 'needs' Iran," Alterman said. "Iran is much more reliant on them for external support." Also weighing on China and Russia's calculus are their strategic ties with other regional actors, particularly the influential, oil-rich nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which have come under direct attack by Iran in response to their hosting of U.S. military bases. "Saudi Arabia exports more oil to China than Iran does, and the UAE is an important base for many wealthy Russians," Alterman said. "But the important thing to keep in mind is that China and Russia don’t really believe in allies. They are transactional." "That means their goal is to balance support for Iran with not antagonizing Gulf Arab partners and not helping Iran so much that it creates major problems with the United States," he added. "As the line from 'The Godfather' goes, 'it was only business.'" Alignment Without Alliance From Iran's perspective, there are limits to alignment rooted in historic skepticism toward reliance on foreign powers. Post-revolutionary Iran fought its last major war largely alone, while the majority of international support went to Iraq throughout the eight-year bloody conflict in the 1980s—a situation that helped fuel Tehran's strategy of instead investing in its own coalition of ideologically aligned actors. More recent experiences have reinforced this aversion to formal security pacts, according to Arash Reisinezhad, visiting assistant professor at Tufts University's Fletcher School. "During the recent wars, the Twelve-Days War and the Iran War, both countries offered political support and diplomatic backing, but neither provided the kind of decisive and unconditional support associated with military alliances," Reisinezhad told Newsweek. "This is not necessarily because either country is hostile to Iran. Rather, their own national interests discourage transforming their relationships with Tehran into formal alliance commitments." "As a result, a widespread perception exists among Iranian policymakers that, in moments of existential crisis, neither Moscow nor Beijing can ultimately be relied upon as guarantors of Iranian security," Reisinezhad said. "This perception has historically shaped Iranian strategic thinking and helps explain why Tehran continues to place greater emphasis on self-reliance and indigenous deterrence capabilities than on external security guarantees." Yet, he argued that "the debate inside Iran appears to be evolving," with a growing chorus of voices calling for closer security coordination with China, in particular. And while Beijing may not be willing or able to match Washington's status in the Middle East, nor Moscow capable of eschewing Ukraine war commitments to substantially increase military aid to Tehran, there are ways in which the trio could optimize coordination. "Where China and Russia may become more important is not through alliance formation but through accelerating Eurasian connectivity," Reisinezhad said. "Future cooperation is likely to focus on trade routes, logistics networks and continental corridors linking East Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and the Middle East." Such cooperation also serves core Chinese and Russian interests extending across the heart of Asia and beyond. "Despite years of sanctions, underinvestment, and policy mismanagement that have limited Iran’s ability to fully capitalize on regional connectivity projects, Iran retains a unique geoeconomic position," Reisinezhad said. "It is the only country capable of providing China with direct overland access to the hydrocarbon-rich Persian Gulf region. For Beijing, Iran represents both an east-west economic bridge and a gateway connecting Central Asia to West Asia and the Middle East." "For Russia, meanwhile, Iran serves a broader geopolitical function," he added. "From Moscow’s perspective, Iran constitutes an important component of the southern Eurasian rimland." The resulting formula makes Iran a partner worth preserving for the U.S.' two top rivals. "A severe weakening or collapse of the Islamic Republic could generate greater strategic pressure along Russia’s southern flank while simultaneously increasing pressure on China’s western periphery," Reisinezhad said. "This does not mean that either power will fight on Iran's behalf. It does, however, help explain why both Moscow and Beijing have strong incentives to preserve stability in Iran and maintain cooperative relations with Tehran."

Perspectives

Iranian Official

Iran remains steadfast in defending its sovereignty and regional allies against unrelenting foreign aggression, including Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon backed by US support, which have stalled negotiations. In response to Washington's isolation efforts, Tehran has legitimately deepened its independent partnerships with China and Russia to secure economic and defense lifelines essential for resistance. Despite mounting US pressures from domestic opposition, energy disruptions, and munitions shortages, Iran's resilient strategy prioritizes these alliances to counter prolonged confrontation.

Israeli

Israel's continued operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon remain a vital defensive necessity to counter Iran's expanding proxy network, which poses an existential threat through rocket barrages, border incursions, and encirclement strategies backed by Tehran. As negotiations stall, China and Russia are sustaining Iran's economic and military lifelines, enabling the Islamic Republic to prolong its shadow war and test Israel's resilience amid U.S. munitions constraints and regional disruptions. This dynamic underscores the need for sustained pressure to degrade these alliances before they further empower direct confrontations.

Neutral

Negotiations over a potential agreement have stalled amid ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon. China and Russia have supplied Iran with economic, diplomatic, and defense support despite U.S. sanctions, though these ties do not form formal military alliances. U.S. officials face reported domestic and logistical pressures from the conflict, while the sustainability of Iran's position remains subject to analysis.

Western

Negotiations remain stalled as Israel conducts precision strikes to neutralize Hezbollah threats in Lebanon, enabling China and Russia to extend lifelines that help Iran evade sanctions and sustain proxy operations against US and allied interests. Despite mounting pressures on Washington from energy disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and munitions stocks, the strategic priority remains degrading Iran's capacity to project force through its network of militias. A prolonged conflict would test Tehran's resilience while underscoring the necessity of coordinated Western measures to counter its deepening ties with Beijing and Moscow.

Pro-Peace

As Israel's strikes in Lebanon prolong civilian suffering and displacement amid stalled negotiations, the specter of a drawn-out US-Iran confrontation threatens severe humanitarian fallout, from disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz to mounting casualties across the region. Rather than relying on endurance tests or strengthened ties with China and Russia to sustain conflict, diplomatic engagement offers a viable path to de-escalation that prioritizes protecting lives over geopolitical maneuvering. The erosion of public support and resource strains highlight how such wars exact their heaviest toll on ordinary people, underscoring the need for immediate talks to avert further devastation.

Global South

Negotiations remain deadlocked amid Israel's ongoing strikes in Lebanon, exposing the limits of US-led isolation tactics against Iran as classic neo-colonial pressure to enforce Western dominance. From a non-aligned vantage, Tehran is exercising sovereign agency by deepening economic, diplomatic and defense ties with China and Russia, circumventing Washington's sanctions regime and the failures of US-dominated institutions to deliver equitable mediation. This endurance test underscores how prolonged conflict strains American public support, energy routes through the Strait of Hormuz and munitions supplies, while Iran prioritizes multipolar partnerships to safeguard its autonomy.

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Tom O'ConnorBy Tom O'Connor
With negotiations hitting a new wall over Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon, China and Russia are positioned to play an influential role in determining the degree to which the United States and Iran can outlast one another in a long war. Tehran has long invested in deeper coo…

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

US strikes Iran for 10th consecutive night as Tehran strikes tanker in the Strait of Hormuz

○ 1 source

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

JON GAMBRELL, Associated Press

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranRussiaChina

How the US-Iran conflict has thrown India’s Chabahar plans into doubt

○ 1 source

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran

Divya A

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire

○ 1 source

U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

m. ET on Monday. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

Location: Iran

Sam Meredith

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedIsraelIranProxy

How Houthi Red Sea blockade tightens Iran's grip on energy supplies

○ 1 source

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.

Reuters