There’s still more political fallout for the GOP courtesy of the Iran war: Even if the conflict ends soon, voters could be grappling with pain at the gas pump deep into midterm election season, as Republicans struggle to defend razor-thin majorities in Congress. The influence American presidents have on oil markets is often difficult to discern. But in the case of President Donald Trump, the impact of his decision to team up with Israel for ongoing military strikes on Iran has been plain to see. With the war and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz ongoing, crude oil is trading north of $100 per barrel. Americans, still beset by anxiety over the cost of living, are now paying more than $4 per gallon on average for gasoline, compared to roughly $3 per gallon before Operation Epic Fury started Feb. 28. That has erased a lone bright spot on affordability for the Trump administration, one rarely disputed even by Democrats. And when it comes to the cost of a barrel of oil, what is easily done is not easily undone, as Neale Mahoney, director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, explained to me. “You have a ‘rockets-and-feathers’ phenomenon at the pump — something we’ve seen time again,” he said. What does that mean? When factors like war or other constraints that hamper supply cause oil prices to spike, the per-gallon cost of gasoline rises quickly, “like a rocket.” And when the pressures are removed from the equation, “Gas prices float down slowly, like a feather,” Mahoney said. In other words, even once Middle East oil producers get their facilities up and running at full capacity or the Strait of Hormuz is reopened to normal shipping traffic, “It will take time for prices to settle back to normal in the U.S.,” he added. But that’s not the only headache related to higher oil prices that Trump — and by extension, Republicans in Congress — are facing as they struggle to hang on to their majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. The economic pain is spreading, impacting consumers across multiple sectors. Jet fuel costs have surged, driving airfares higher. Prices for diesel fuel and urea, a crude oil byproduct used to fertilize crops, are also climbing, taking some food prices with them. Based on historical trends and projections for the price of crude oil, Mahoney estimates average pump prices could rise through June and then possibly relax over the summer — but at a snail’s pace. And even if prices begin to ease, the rate at which oil futures are trading suggest costs are likely to remain elevated. That means consumers could continue to pay more at the pump and face related higher costs for several months, potentially right up until midterm voting begins. The president may truly believe his policies have reduced the cost of living to acceptable levels. As he said in a speech from the White House earlier this month: “We were a dead and crippled country after the (Biden) administration, and (I) made it the hottest country anywhere in the world by far, with no inflation.” But it’s abundantly clear that a majority of voters disagree with him, especially regarding that latter assertion. That’s the political challenge facing Republicans — and the political opportunity for Democrats — this fall, even if Trump were to have pulled the plug on the Iran war by the time you read this column.
There’s still more political fallout for the GOP courtesy of the Iran war: Even if the conflict ends soon, voters could be grappling with pain at the gas pump deep into midterm election season, as Republicans struggle to defend razor-thin majorities in Congress. The influence Ame…
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A tanker identified as the Kaifan was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a July 21 report from UK Maritime Trade Operations. No ships were observed transiting the strait that day. Attribution of the strike and links to prior incidents have not been confirmed by the vessel’s owner.
Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.
Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.
Opening summary: Iran claims attacks on strait of Hormuz ships amid fresh US strikes Welcome to our live coverage of the latest developments in the Middle East crisis. Iran attacked a tanker in the strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced they were imposing an immediate maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea after the two sides traded fire last week for the first time in years.
A Houthi official said the Bab al-Mandeb strait – at the southern end of the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s trade usually passes – would be closed to the Saudis in response to the kingdom’s “unjust blockade on Yemenis for over 10 years”.
Saudi Arabia said it would take “all necessary measures to protect its vessels in accordance with international law”. A 10 consecutive night of US airstrikes has not compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies.
But even as Iran’s president said the country had returned “full-scale war”, the Iranian interior minister travelled to Pakistan – a key mediator in the conflict – for talks. In key developments: The latest US strikes came hours after Donald Trump said Iran would pay “many times over” for killing US soldiers after multiple service members were killed in action over the weekend.
A tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the Hormuz strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack as well as two other attacks on ships in the waterway on Monday.
The US military’s Central Command said its latest airstrikes were to “degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the strait and included hitting military command centres and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian media reported strikes in parts of the country including Bandar Abbas, Tabriz and Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational civilian nuclear power.
Iran’s launched attacks in response against Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, which all host US forces. Oil prices softened after hitting their highest levels in more than a month in the previous session. Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $88.87 a barrel by 0052 GMT on Tuesday while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was steady at $82.
47 a barrel. Democrats have seized on the deaths of three US troops killed in Iranian strikes to urge Trump to urgently reverse his resumption of the war with Iran amid widespread anxiety over climbing casualties. The Lebanese army began taking charge of security in three southern villages, the US said, as a deal to secure an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah faced its first test on the ground.
US forces struck the tanker Settebello in the Gulf of Oman on June 10, killing three Indian crew members when munitions hit the engine room and adjacent areas. Maritime tracking data indicate the vessel had transported Iranian oil under US sanctions for several years and conducted offshore transfers prior to the strike.
The US military described the action as a precision operation, while reports note the ship was stationary at the time.