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strikeJun 26, 2026

Futures Drop, Chips Resume Slide As OpenAI IPO Delay Dents Sentiment

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Futures Drop, Chips Resume Slide As OpenAI IPO Delay Dents Sentiment Futures point to a lower start for cash trading on the last day of the week, as tech stocks dragged global indexes lower following renewed selling in chipmakers, while a report that OpenAI could postpone plans to go public also weighed on sentiment. The volatility reflects a valuation test, profit‑taking and flow-driven positioning, according to Christian Stocker, equity strategist at UniCredit, who suggests it’s a “temporary correction within a still-intact long-term AI growth trend.” As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1.1%, while those on the S&P 500 fell 0.4%. In premarket trading, semiconductor names, including Micron and optical stocks were broadly lower following news of OpenAI’s IPO delay; the "chip paying" hyperscalers showing moderate gains as the equilibrium seems to shift away from chip stocks. A selloff in Korean chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix triggered a second trading suspension in Seoul within days. Oil resumed its slide, failing to lift stocks but offering a fillip to bonds. Bond yields declined further led by the front-end of the curve: 2y is down 3.5bp; USD is lower. Oil fell -2.74 this morning to $69.18. US economic data calendar includes May goods trade balance, retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am), June final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari at 11:30am In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed: Microsoft is the is a top gainer as investors rotate into software stocks from hardwar (Microsoft +0.8%, Apple +0.5%, Amazon unchanged, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Alphabet -0.7%, Nvidia -1%, Tesla -1.1%). Semiconductor stocks are broadly lower amid investor concerns over the staying power of chip demand given price increases seen across Apple and Xbox products. A potential delay to OpenAI’s IPO, as reported by the New York Times, also dampened risk sentiment. ON Semiconductor (ON) slides 14% after the chipmaker agreed to an all-stock deal to buy Synaptics. Analysts worry that buying a business that’s exposed to smart devices and the consumer market may distract a push to supply for AI data centers. Synaptics (SYNA) is up 4.2%. Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains about 1% after the space firm said NASA selected it to provide three Electron launches for two missions, PolSIR and TSIS-2, from early 2027. Tango Therapeutics (TNGX) climbs 5% after Jefferies upgraded the drug developer to buy citing durability of its experimental therapy to treat pancreatic cancer. Wise (WSE) climbs 5% after the financial technology firm announced it will begin a new buyback program and reported results for the full year which analysts say were in line with expectations. In other corporate news, EV maker Polestar will exit the US after the Commerce Department banned the company due to a rule prohibiting Chinese software in cars, according to the WSJ. And Volkswagen is looking to cut tens of thousands of additional jobs and may shutter factories in a push to be more competitive, Manager Magazin reported. Markets are capping a volatile week in which shifting sentiment around the once-relentless tech trade whipsawed stocks, with traders parsing everything from spending plans to corporate earnings. Investors pulled money from US equities for the first time in three months, with record withdrawals from tech. Friday’s bout of weakness came as price increases in products from Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. triggered fears about the staying power of chip demand. A New York Times report that OpenAI could delay its initial public offering until 2027 also brought into focus how volatility could affect the sector. In Japan, OpenAI backer SoftBank Group Corp. tumbled following the NYT report, sending the Nikkei 225 down 4.2%. The tech sector led declines in Europe as well, with the Stoxx 600 on course for its worst performance since the middle of May. “Technology remains a crowded trade, positioning is relatively tight, and that makes the sector more sensitive to negative news flow or sharp moves in individual names,” said Francisco Simon, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management. AI valuations relative to the rest of the S&P 500 have fallen to their lowest levels since the Iran war, with AI stocks now trading at just a 15% P/E premium to ex-AI stocks, notes Bloomberg. The case for the AI trade remains intact, but the risk of getting it wrong has risen considerably with leverage, crowding and dispersion in focus. Investors say the roller-coaster week shows that while the case for the AI-trade is still strong, the days of everything going up in a straight line appear to be over. While there hasn’t been panic selling, the cracks are real, and extreme investor positioning means the easy days could be a thing of the past. The most sensible strategy “is to maintain well-diversified portfolios across geographies, styles, sizes, companies, and sectors,” said David Manso, chief investment officer at CaixaBank AM. “In a couple of weeks, the earnings season will kick off, and leading indicators are pointing in the right direction. We expect corporate results to become a positive catalyst.” Also in AI, the Pentagon has revised its doctrine on how the US military picks its targets in battle, opening the way for AI to make critical wartime decisions in the future. In politics, New York City’s Rent Guidelines Board voted to freeze some apartment rents, handing Mayor Mamdani a major political victory. Commerce Secretary Lutnick intervened to delay the opening of a new bridge between the US and Canada and is pressing to renegotiate the deal for a larger share of toll revenue.  The Stoxx 600 is down by 0.6%, with energy and technology equities leading declines, while food beverage and personal care drug stocks are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Friday: Wise shares climb as much as 8.2% after the financial technology firm announced it will begin a new buyback program and reported results for the full year which analysts say were in line with expectations Pandora shares rise as much as 5.1% after BofA upgraded the stock to buy from underperform, saying it has a “clear catalyst path ahead as main pressures subside and LFL [like-for-like sales] stabilizes” Barratt Redrow and Bellway climb after Berenberg upgrades both stocks to buy, saying depressed valuations, strong balance sheets and attractive capital returns create selective opportunities in UK housebuilders despite a downbeat market outlook Koninklijke KPN shares rise as much as 2.5% after the Dutch telecoms firm was upgraded at Citi, as analysts said there is an opportunity for investors to increase their holding in a “quality stock” following a recent pullback Technology shares declined in Europe, following Asia peers lower, after Apple slumped Thursday following price increases on its products. A report that OpenAI may delay its IPO also weighed on sentiment Zalando shares fall as much as 11% after the German Financial Supervisory Authority BaFin opened a probe into the online fashion retailer’s 2025 report over suspected violations of accounting rules Accor shares drop as much as 2.8%, pulling back from an all-time high after the hotelier was downgraded at Jefferies. Analysts believe any potential recovery in the Middle East is already priced in INWIT shares slip as much as 2.1% after a downgrade to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs, which sees “heightened operating and structural uncertainty” for the Italian telecoms company’s investment case Asian stocks resumed their decline after a brief reprieve the prior day, as concerns about the sustainability of recent tech gains weighed on sentiment. Trading in Asian stocks has remained volatile, with investors torn between whether the rally in technology shares is stretched or backed by confidence in continued AI-driven growth. In the end, tech stocks dragged Asia lower, with the Kospi falling 5.8% and the Nikkei 225 dropping 4.2%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 3.6%, with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC weighing most on the gauge. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan led declines. For the week, the index has fallen more than 4%, on track for its worst showing since early March. The selloff comes after Apple said it raised prices to offset cost hikes caused by an unprecedented shortage of memory chips, dragging supplier shares across the region lower. For some, it underscored just how vulnerable the chip rally — which has lifted benchmarks to repeated highs — has become.  “After recent performance, it’s not difficult to expect some consolidation,” said Kieran Calder, head of Asia equity research at Union Bancaire Privee. Apple price hikes highlighted “memory shortage impact on consumer electronics prices and part of the inflation narrative.” In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down by 0.1% and the euro back to testing $1.14, while sterling has climbed back above $1.32. The Norwegian krone is underperforming among major currencies on the slide in oil prices. In rates, a falling oil price is lifting short-end bonds across Europe and the US, with a pullback in bets on central bank rate hikes. US two-year yields falling by four basis points and outperforming moves in the same direction in Europe and the UK. treasury futures hold gains led by front-end tenors, extending Thursday’s yield-curve steepening move, as oil prices resume their slide toward pre-war levels and short-term rate products price in less Fed tightening in the coming months. 2-year yields are lower by 3bp-4bp, long-end tenors by less than 1bp, steepening 2s10s curve by 1.5bp, 5s30s by 3bp; 10-year, down 2bp near 4.375%, outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by around 1bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. At least two borrowers stood down Thursday as three priced a combined $5.4 billion, paying about 5bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3 times oversubscribed. In commodities, Brent is sliding by nearly 4% and below $73/barrel and WTI futures are sinking toward $69/barrel and headed for biggest weekly drop in a month after transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated; Gold little changed but holding above $4,000/oz. US economic data calendar includes May advance goods trade balance, May retail and wholesale inventories (8:30am), June final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari at 11:30am Market Snapshot Top Overnight News Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said the safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz without consideration of Iran's sovereignty is not guaranteed. This follows an Iranian strike on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship after failing to follow the set route: RTRS Traffic through Strait of Hormuz slows after attack on ship: RTRS US Chip Stocks Decline on Worries Over Memory Prices, OpenAI IPO: BBG US President Trump said we have a new market coming up called Iran and added that Iran wants to make a deal with us very badly and thinks they will make a deal. Venezuela Seeks Survivors as Quakes Death Toll Hits 235; Quake Crisis to Test Legitimacy of Rodriguez Regime: BBG OpenAI Leans Toward Holding Up I.P.O. Until Next Year: NYT SpaceX Plans New Starlink Mobile Service for US Consumers: FT US President Trump's administration asked OpenAI to restrict the launch of its next model, GPT-5.6, to only a small set of government-approved partners before a wider release due to security concerns: Axios. Russian hawks urge Putin to escalate war, drop US talks as Ukraine strikes deep: RTRS Volkswagen weighs up to 100,000 job cuts and four plant closures in overhaul: RTRS On immigration, Supreme Court accedes to Trump's restrictive agenda: RTRS Wall Street Realizes It Needs More Than Money to Counter Mamdani: WSJ Representatives Gottheimer (D) and Moolenaar (R) are reportedly introducing legislation that would allow US cloud companies to report suspected foreign misuse of advanced AI computing: Axios  Novak Djokovic Joins General Atlantic in His Wall Street Debut: BBG BofA's weekly flow report notes USD 25.5bln out of cash, USD 5.0bln out of stocks, USD 16.6bln into bonds, USD 0.5bln out of gold. Bull & Bear Indicator fell to 9.1 (prev. 9.2) A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were pressured following the choppy performance stateside, where markets were indecisive amid two-way trade in tech, a recent data deluge and a rebound in oil. The overnight deterioration in risk sentiment coincided with renewed selling in tech after Apple raised prices of some products by nearly 20% and with OpenAI leaning towards delaying its IPO until next year. ASX 200 was rangebound with the index cushioned as the underperformance in tech, telecoms and healthcare was partially offset by resilience in some defensive stocks. Nikkei 225 suffered heavy losses as tech stocks dominated the list of worst performers, with SoftBank down by a double-digit percentage owing to its large exposure to AI and semiconductors. KOSPI remained volatile with the slump triggering a sidecar and eventual circuit breaker alongside notable declines in both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the sell-off across the region amid the tech rout Top Asian News China sharpened tools for retaliating against foreign sanctions with Beijing preparing a new law that would add to its ability to punish foreign companies and individuals deemed to harm Chinese interests, according to WSJ. PBoC has requested that some commercial banks increase lending in June amid ongoing weak credit demand, according to reports. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) are entirely in the red in the last session of the week, driven by another day of losses in South Korea (SK Hynix -8.4%, Samsung -5.3%). Some analysts are citing Apple's price hikes on products due to memory chip shortages as a catalyst for the recent sell-off, raising concerns that rising component costs could curb demand for devices. An analyst at Javelin Wealth Management also said the recent gains for chipmakers could come at the expense of product manufacturers. The losses in South Korean giants have weighed on European chip names (Infineon -3.1%, ASML -1.0%) and indices composed of technology companies (DAX 40 -0.8%, AEX -0.6%). European sectors highlight a negative bias. Optimised Personal Care (+0.8%), Food, Beverages & Tobacco (+0.6%) and Utilities top the sector pile. Energy (-1.5%) is the underperformer again, with Technology (-1.4%) and Financial Services (-1.1%) also lagging. Top European News The Times' Swinford reported that it is likely to be a two-horse race between Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood for chancellor, with allies of Streeting say they do not think he will get the job. FX USD finds itself under modest pressure. DXY at a 101.18 base, but well clear of the 100.76 WTD low, with the index set to see the week out around the middle of its range. In brief, a tale of two halves for the index which began the week on the front foot before reversing after Thursday’s data deluge and continuing to slip since. EUR outperforms as a result of the continued USD pressure. No real move to the ECB CES, which showed a moderation in the 12-month price view and an uptick in the growth view. The growth revision is not enough to provide comfortable space for further tightening, and equally the price moderation is not sufficient to take another move off the table. Nonetheless, the price moderation does add to the post-PMI & Lagarde dovish tilt we have seen in recent days. In more detail, EUR/USD has breached 1.14 to the upside. Picking up gradually across the morning, as the US data on Thursday has and continues to permit an unwinding of some of the yield differential moves we have seen in recent days, with the Fed more-hawkish and ECB mixed but net less-hawkish, particularly from Lagarde as referenced. However, while it has hit a 1.1407 peak, EUR remains in the red on the week and continuing the near unbroken downward trend of the last seven weeks. Elsewhere, G10s generally are slightly firmer against the USD. With GBP the next-best behind EUR, comfortably above 1.3200 and flat/firmer WTD, but again, still towards post June policy announcement lows, as BoE expectations coalesce around the on hold for the foreseeable narrative, despite the hawkish dissenters. CAD, JPY and CHF all faring around equally. Of those, USD/JPY participants remain on watch for potential intervention risk, particularly as Japanese authorities tend to target Friday’s and go with the market move rather than fighting it. USD/JPY just above a 161.53 base, and while the JPY is firmer today the bearish trend remains near-enough unbroken at a weekly level over the last month and a half. Today is spot month/quarter-end. As a reminder, Barclays model was neutral overall for the USD against all majors, formed of a moderate USD buying signal on the month-end, but countered by a strong USD sell signal for quarter-end Commodities The US-Iran situation remains complex. It was reported that the IRGC attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship, after it attempted to traverse through the Strait through a route not designated by the Iranians. This led the UN to pause its evacuation plans for ships around the Strait. Despite the attack, Bloomberg data continues to indicate that ships continue to traverse through the Hormuz, highlighting that traffic continues to flow in “both directions”. On the Lebanon front. The US-mediated Lebanon-Israel talks were expected to conclude on Wednesday, but were then extended into today. Israeli sources have suggested that there has been some progress, but no deal has been reached thus far. The negotiations focus on the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon; there may be a chance that Israel will only withdraw from areas where operations have already been concluded, and continue such action in other parts of the region. Therefore, the risk is that Iran is not satisfied by the outcome of the talks, and potentially restart closures of the Strait. Crude benchmarks are in the red, with WTI (-3.5%) and Brent (-3.4%) holding at the bottom end of their respective USD 68.98-71.86/bbl and USD 72.14-75.13/bbl ranges. Despite the flare-up on the Strait in the prior session and the continued lack of progress between Lebanon and Israel, crude prices continue to slip. It is the case that as long as ships continue to traverse the Strait, other friction points can be ignored… at least in the short term. Spot gold (+0.2%) is ever so slightly firmer this morning, but continues to remain near recent troughs. Today, the yellow-metal holds just above the USD 4k/oz mark, and within a USD 3,982-4,039/oz range. Elsewhere, base metals are broadly slightly lower this morning, with 3M LME copper currently off by c. 0.6%. It currently holds around USD 13.25k/t and within a USD 13,088.3-13,281/t range. Saudi Aramco reopened the Ras Tanura oil loading operations after a prolonged halt, with two supertankers loading oil at Ras Tanura on Friday, while another is awaiting loading, according to shipping data. Several Japanese-related vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz as part of IMO evacuation plans, which have since been suspended following the attack on a cargo ship, according to Mainichi. China's MOFCOM released a list of non-state Chinese companies eligible for oil imports. Kazakhstan cut the gas production at the Karachaganak gas field after Ukraine drone attacks on Russia's Orenburg gas processing plant. Raw gas from the field is usually delivered to the Orenburg plant. Kazakhstan Energy Minister said we may consider fuel exports to Russia if there is an official request. Russia is considering a short-term ban on diesel exports for a few months, TASS reported. Central Banks Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said it is difficult to determine whether inflation pressures are persistent or temporary, while noting inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and some of that is being driven by one-off factors. He added that inflation remains more concerning on the services side and that spending based on expected future gains makes him concerned about potential inflationary pressures. Goolsbee also said there are some signs of improvement in services inflation, but it remains well above where it needs to be, as well as stated that core inflation it is still too high and trending in the wrong direction, while services-driven core CPI is more concerning than inflation driven by goods or oil-related items. Furthermore, he stated that wages are not a particularly good leading indicator for inflation and that inflation could rise before wages do, adding that inflation needs to be monitored closely. Geopolitics US President Trump said they have a new market coming up called Iran, and that Iran wants to make a deal with them very badly, while he thinks that they will make a deal and stated the Strait is open. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz without consideration of Iran's sovereignty is not guaranteed and that any framework for passage through Hormuz must be in coordination with Iran, otherwise it will be suspended from the designated route. N12's Segal posted after a conversation with a source on the Iranian issue, "His opinion on the agreement and the situation is much less negative than what has been written anywhere else, including here." Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters declared that if the US is unable to contain and control the Zionist regime, Iran will not tolerate any threat against itself and considers it its right to respond to these dangerous actions. Israeli Embassy in Washington said due to extension in the discussions, negotiations between Israel and Lebanon mediated by the US will continue on Friday for a fourth day, according to a Kan reporter. Israeli Energy Minister said the withdrawal from southern Lebanon is not under consideration and would be rejected even if requested by US President Trump, while he stated that Israel does not plan to occupy all of Lebanon, but intends to establish full security control over the entire Gaza Strip. Israeli PM Netanyahu said that we will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon as long as necessary and have ordered the army to have complete freedom of action to counter any threat against our forces or residents of the North. UN said the Lebanon ceasefire is largely holding, though Israeli military operations inside Lebanon continue. It was separately reported that Israel's military conducted airstrikes on Beit Yahun, Lebanon, while Israeli tank movements were reported in Wadi Saluqi and Bint Jbeil, Lebanon. IAEA chief Grossi said it's undeniable we have an agreement that IAEA will have access to Iran for inspection, while added that they hope to resume their work in Iran soon. GCC Secretary General said the proposed USD 300bln for the reconstruction of Iran has not been presented to us officially or unofficially, and it has not been discussed with the US, Sky News Arabia reported. Russia claimed to have shut down 660 Ukrainian drones overnight, Moscow's mayor reported that 47 drones were intercepted that were heading to the capital. North Korean leader Kim oversaw the testing of key weapons, according to KCNA. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: May P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6% 10:00 am: Jun F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 50, prior 48.9 11:30 am: Fed’s Kashkari at Aspen Ideas Panel DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I can pretty much guarantee the imminent end of the extreme record-breaking heatwave currently engulfing most of Europe, and a very low chance it will ever return. Last night my wife spent a small fortune ordering industrial fans for everyone's bedrooms. So stand by for the next ice-age. There seems to be a mini ice-age in Asia this morning with tech again selling off. The KOSPI is slumping -8.01% as I type with the Nikkei -4.54% lower. SoftBank is around -14% lower after the NYT suggested that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027. This follows a sharp decline for the Magnificent 7 (-2.54%) yesterday. The tech mega cap index moved deeper into correction territory after the news that Apple (-6.12%) would be raising the price of its Macs and iPads. That came in response to demand surges for memory and storage, but the news played into broader concerns that AI data centres were generating inflationary pressures. Marion and Camilla in my team wrote an excellent piece last week looking at the recent parabolic increase in memory prices, and its potential macro impact. Apple's announcement yesterday emphasizes some of these themes. See it on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute site here. Elsewhere in Asia the Shanghai Comp is -2.14% lower with the Hang Seng -1.87%. S&P 500 (-0.71%), NASDAQ (-1.45%) and European Stoxx (-0.79%) futures are also notably lower. In terms of data, headline and core core Tokyo CPI were both a tenth higher than expected at 1.7% and 1.9% respectively. Ahead of that, markets had actually generally put in a decent performance yesterday amid encouraging US data even as oil prices rebounded from 3-month lows to post their biggest rise in three weeks. Most notably, the PCE inflation data for May (the Fed’s target measure) came in on the softer side, which pushed back a bit against the building narrative towards Fed rate hikes in recent weeks. Indeed, headline PCE was only up +0.4% on the month (vs. +0.5% expected), whilst core PCE was at a softer +0.3% on the month as expected. That PCE release helped markets to dial back expectations of Fed rate hikes. For instance, the amount of hikes priced by December fell to 34bps by the close, down -1.5bps on the day. So there was growing speculation again that the Fed might not need to hike at all this year, even as Fed officials remain cautious on the inflation outlook. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that core inflation is "still well too high and it's trending the wrong way", while New York Fed President Williams called inflation “unquestionably elevated”. Nonetheless, front-end Treasury yields declined, with the 2yr yield (-2.4bps) down to 4.12%, its lowest since last week’s Fed meeting, while the 10yr yield (+0.1bps) was little changed at 4.39%. They are down another -3.3bps and -2.2bps respectively this morning.   Whilst the PCE release was the main focus, several other US releases added to the optimism around the economy. For example, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to 215k over the week ending June 20 (vs. 225k expected), so the labour market still appeared in decent shape. Meanwhile, the third estimate of Q1 GDP was also revised up half a point to an annualised rate of +2.1%, suggesting things were on a stronger footing than thought earlier this year. That backdrop of strong data and more dovish Fed pricing meant most US stocks advanced even with some tech wobbles. However, the S&P 500 (-0.01%) ended up narrowly posting a fourth consecutive loss, as the tech sell-off we mentioned at the top dragged. It wasn't all bad news for tech as the Philly Semiconductor index rose +3.59%, with Micron surging +15.7% after Wednesday night's results. And more broadly, both the equal-weighted S&P (+0.67%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.71%) had solid days. The market mood was also partially disrupted by news that a cargo ship was hit by unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, which also followed reports of some ships turning around while attempting to cross the strait. So that led to some renewed uncertainty over the normalization of shipping, after the number of vessels going through the strait had risen in recent days. Oil prices moved higher following the incident. Brent crude rose +2.06% to $75.26/bbl, despite have traded as low as $72.06/bbl earlier in the session, which was below its $72.48/bbl level on February 27, the day before the US and Israel began strikes on Iran. This morning Brent is back down -1.95% to $73.79 as I type. Over in Europe, investors continued to price out the chance of further ECB rate hikes. In fact, the number of hikes priced by the December meeting fell to just 26bps by the close, down -3.2bps on the day. So that helped to push the STOXX 600 (+0.80%) to a record high by the close, alongside gains for the DAX (+1.03%), the CAC 40 (+0.55%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.65%). A large amount of that will likely reverse at the open this morning with the overnight sell-off. Meanwhile for sovereign bonds, the 10yr bund yield (-0.8bps) hit a 3-month low of 2.85%, alongside a marginal rise for yields on 10yr OATs (+0.4bps) and BTPs (+0.1bps). Looking at the day ahead now, US data releases include the advance goods trade balance for May, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for June. We’ll also get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for May and hear from the Fed’s Kashkari and the ECB’s Vujcic. Tyler Durden Fri, 06/26/2026 - 08:31

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  • Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

    Futures Drop, Chips Resume Slide As OpenAI IPO Delay Dents Sentiment Futures point to a lower start for cash trading on the last day of the week, as tech stocks dragged global indexes lower following renewed selling in chipmakers, while a report that OpenAI could pos

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

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US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran
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U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

m. ET on Monday. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

Location: Iran
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Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.