strikeJul 23, 2026

Gas, groceries and back-to-school items are where shoppers might see higher oil prices surface

Summary

NEW YORK (AP) — Already feeling pinched since the start of the Iran war, consumers are likely to feel more pain ahead as oil prices pushed past $100 a barrel Thursday amid renewed fighting and military strikes that have left global oil supplies stranded in the Middle East. The elevated price marked a turn from lower oil prices enjoyed briefly when hostilities between the U.S. and Iran waned in June. Brent crude, the international standard, last reached $100 a barrel in May. Companies that produce and sell fresh food, school supplies and anything that gets shipped using fuel reported cost impacts from an earlier spike in energy prices after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. They’re likely to continue passing some of their increased expenses to consumers. “In general, once you have an increase in costs, businesses are fast in increasing the price,” said Miguel Gomez, director of Cornell University’s Food Industry Management Program. But, he noted, "it takes more time to lower prices when the costs go down.” Here's how higher oil prices could further impact consumers' wallets. Drivers are paying more for gasoline at the pump Volatility along the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional instability pushed up the price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, and could continue to make driving costlier during the second half of summer, according to motor club AAA. The average U.S. price for regular gasoline reached $4.09 a gallon Thursday, up 15 cents from a week ago, with drivers in most states now paying $4 or more, according to AAA. “Given the typical lag along the oil industry’s supply chain, prices at the pump are poised to keep rising at least into next week,” said Pavel Molchanov, investment strategy analyst at Raymond James. But he noted that futures prices for oil delivered later this year and next year are lower, suggesting prices could fall once military action ends. For the most part, higher gasoline prices haven't stopped Americans from driving. Gasoline demand rose 1% to 8.9 million barrels per day last week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Pressure on gasoline prices could persist because fewer refineries are available to process crude than before the conflict. Refineries in the Middle East have been damaged, and Ukrainian attacks have damaged refineries in Russia. Shoppers are paying more for a bag of groceries Grocery prices generally rise with oil because farmers use diesel fuel to power equipment, while many food products are transported by trucks that require fuel. “Oil at $100 doesn’t make food prices jump right away, but it does put upward pressure across the food supply chains, especially for categories that depend heavily on trucking, cold storage and packaging,” Gomez said. Fresh produce and dairy could feel a larger impact because they require refrigeration during delivery. Imported goods are also vulnerable to higher shipping costs, Gomez said. “Things like olive oil that we produce very little here and are coming from mostly from Europe are going to be up.” Grocery chain Albertsons on Thursday lowered its 2026 fiscal outlook, citing pressure on its core grocery business and a pullback in consumer spending. Every product that moves will have higher costs baked into the price Higher fuel costs for ships, trucks and air carriers can trickle down to consumers and businesses that depend on shipping. UPS, FedEx and other shipping services introduced fuel surcharges and other fees as fuel prices increased. According to an AFS Logistics and TD Cowen Freight Index released July 14, truckload pricing is at a four-year high because of rising fuel costs and capacity constraints. Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS Logistics, said diesel prices in the second quarter were about 51% higher than in January and February, while jet fuel prices rose 90% from a year earlier. “Beyond the direct impact of higher freight bills paid by shippers, these price movements also have second-order effects that squeeze rates higher,” he said. “Smaller truckload carriers working on tight margins may park trucks and wait for fuel prices to revert to more palatable levels before returning to operation.” Retailers are noticing consumers pulling back Rural lifestyle retailer Tractor Supply Co. reduced its annual sales outlook on Thursday, citing in part higher fuel prices during its spring selling season that weighed on customer spending. ”Our customers often drive longer distances to shop frequently in pickup trucks, many of which are diesel-powered, making them especially sensitive to higher fuel costs,” CEO Hal Lawton told analysts. Lawton said customers are still investing in their pets, animals, farms and properties, but shopping has become “more deliberate.” Customers are consolidating trips, prioritizing needs-based purchases and taking a more measured approach to discretionary spending. Back-to-school shoppers may face higher prices The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America trade group warned in a report Wednesday that increasing freight and material costs, along with rising tariffs costs, are creating big challenges for the footwear industry as companies prepare for the back-to-school shopping season and the remainder of the year. Matt Priest, CEO and president of the trade group, said some of its members have cited 25% price increases for petroleum-based materials used in footwear manufacturing due to the Middle East conflict. Those costs could eventually translate into roughly a 5% increase in the cost of finished footwear products sold to consumers, Priest said in the report. Footwear companies have been front-loading inventory and accelerating imports before President Donald Trump imposes new tariffs on foreign products, putting additional pressure on shipping rates, he said. “Container rates are spiking right now,” Priest said. Higher jet fuel costs lead to costlier flights Since the war began, airlines have responded to the jump in fuel costs by raising fares and add-on fees, and trimming flights or routes that are no longer profitable at higher fuel prices. Those moves can help protect the airlines’ margins, but also leave travelers facing higher prices and fewer options, particularly in smaller or less competitive markets. In the latest sign that the conflict is driving up costs for the travel industry, American Airlines on Thursday reported a sharp decline in second-quarter net income despite record revenue and strong spring travel demand. American said higher fares helped offset nearly half of its higher fuel bill but not enough to prevent it from lowering its full-year outlook. Despite higher prices, jet fuel demand in the last four weeks increased 9% compared to the same time last year, according to EIA. ___ Associated Press writers Rio Yamat in Las Vegas, Wyatte Grantham-Philips and Dee-Ann Durbin in Detroit contributed to this report.

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Sources

CATHY BUSSEWITZ, MAE ANDERSON and ANNE D'INNOCENZIO, AP Business WritersBy CATHY BUSSEWITZ, MAE ANDERSON and ANNE D'INNOCENZIO, AP Business Writers
NEW YORK (AP) — Already feeling pinched since the start of the Iran war, consumers are likely to feel more pain ahead as oil prices pushed past $100 a barrel Thursday amid renewed fighting and military strikes that have left global oil supplies stranded in the Middle East. …

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyRussia

Oil Prices Soar as US-Iran Conflict Expands to Red Sea

○ 1 source

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Thursday closed up +5.36 (+6.17%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0793 (+2.44%). WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) rallied more than +6% on Thursday after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the oil disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz and threatening oil shipments in the Red Sea.

Sep Brent crude oil prices (CBU26) on Thursday rallied above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. President Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday that he is considering a “massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision on it.

”Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation's ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi's are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the 12th straight day, and the US maintained its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned last Wednesday that it is too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.

51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries.

As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.

Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.

13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country’s refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks.

The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on July 7 raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.78 million bpd from a June estimate of 13.72 million bpd. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September.

The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On July 5, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in August, though that increase might prove difficult due to revived US-Iran military attacks in the region.

OPEC’s June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +31% w/w to 90.03 million bbl in the week ended July 17. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mostly negative for crude oil and products.

EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +2.01 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.95 million bbl decline. Also, EIA gasoline supplies rose by +765,000 bbl versus expectations of a -1.9 million bbl decline. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose by +1.

4 million bbl, a larger build than expectations of +825,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell -624,000 bbl. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 17 were -5.

3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 17 fell -0.5% w/w to 13.

798 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended July 17 rose by +7 to a 13-month high of 452 rigs, up from the 4.

25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

IDF to deal 'crushing blow' to Iran, if it attacks Israel — Ynet

○ 1 source

TEL AVIV, July 23. /TASS/. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will deal "a crushing blow" to Iran, if it attacks the Jewish state, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned, according to the Ynet portal. "We are ready for any development of events. If Iran attacks Israel, we will deal a crushing blow," he said.

Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he was considering carrying out a massive attack on Iran, and the strikes would be harder than before. According to the American leader, Israel will "join the attack in two minutes" if requested by the United States.

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However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the terms of the agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

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