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strikeJul 21, 2026

Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens

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Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens Brent crude futures are trading in the low $90s as the Gulf area escalation enters a tenth consecutive day. Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while two tankers carrying Saudi crude reversed course in the southern Red Sea after warnings from Iran-backed Houthi forces placed another critical maritime chokepoint under threat. For more color on energy markets, Goldman commodities expert Daan Struyven warned clients on Monday that Brent crude futures could surge above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Hormuz maritime chokepoint persist; he noted that such an outcome is not his base case. Struyven sees Brent around $80 in the fourth quarter and $75 next year, assuming US and Iran tensions ease, but warned that risks remained tilted to the upside as Persian Gulf flows fall below 45% of prewar levels and Houthi threats in the southern Red Sea chokepoint. "Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up," Struyven said. The key upside price risks are: Shipping disruptions in Hormuz--and potentially the Red Sea--as the estimated 5mb/d rise since the start of the war in pipeline flows via Yanbu to the Red Sea, to more than 6mb/d (Exhibit 3), has played a key role in offsetting part of the decline in Hormuz flows. Damage to energy infrastructure from the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars. While the Iran war has likely not caused lasting major damage to oil production capacity so far, our analysis of the 5 largest prior supply shocks shows an average 42% hit to production in the affected country after 5 years, often reflecting infrastructure damage, underinvestment, or tight sanctions (Exhibit 4). Struyven noted, "Brent might exceed $120/bbl in 2026Q4 and average $100 in 2027 if Hormuz remains disrupted through 2027 (Exhibit 2, red line). This scenario assumes Gulf output only fully recovers by Dec27, supported by pipeline extensions." Struyven touched on how China's retreat from the crude market has temporarily capped prices, with net seaborne imports falling 4.7 million barrels a day from a year earlier in June. Weaker refinery runs, a 21% drop in retail gasoline volumes and estimated crude destocking of more than 1 million barrels a day drove the decline. He said imports may remain subdued if prices rise, given China's estimated 2 billion barrels of inventories and its ability to substitute coal and electricity for some oil consumption. Struyven recommends clients buy the December 2026 to March 2027 European diesel timespread to hedge persistent Middle East and Russian supply risks. Diesel markets were already tight before the Iran war, while Russian refinery outages, low inventories and seasonal demand could push spreads higher. European diesel is preferred over crude, gasoline and US diesel because of constrained refinery output, less price-sensitive demand and fewer US policy-related risks. According to the latest Bloomberg data, Hormuz traffic is at a near standstill. Analysts at Rystad Energy AS warned in a note that the Houthi threat against crude flows means that Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export route "is now directly in the line of fire." "If a ceasefire does not materialize, and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," said Rystad analyst Jorge Leon. Henri Patricot, Paris-based energy equity research analyst at UBS, also has an upside scenario for Brent: In the near term, we see the main potential upside risk coming from a breakdown of negotiations and further escalation, pushing oil prices back to ~$100+/bbl. If major oil infrastructure in the region is targeted and the conflict extends beyond the summer, prices could spike to $120+/bbl. This would drive more severe demand destruction, with limited OPEC+ ability to act. While such a price may be short-lived, a structurally higher risk premium could keep prices in the $80s/bbl range and ongoing disruptions would keep it even higher. The big risk now is that Hormuz disruption is unfolding after global oil buffers have already been depleted, with Cushing inventories reportedly near "tank bottoms." That leaves the market with limited capacity to absorb a prolonged supply shock and will likely increase pressure on the Trump administration to revive diplomacy once the US military has sufficiently degraded Tehran's missile and drone capabilities used to threaten commercial shipping through the strait.  Gloal inventories The US national average for regular gasoline breached $4 a gallon on Monday, intensifying pressure on the Trump administration to pursue Gulf diplomacy. Gas prices may go higher... The $4 threshold is both economically and politically sensitive, as it is where lower-income consumers typically begin cutting discretionary purchases and trading down across gas stations, convenience stores and quick-service restaurants, further weighing on consumer sentiment. Professional subscribers can read the full GS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 11:40

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  • Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

    Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens Brent crude futures are trading in the low $90s as the Gulf area escalation enters a tenth consecutive day. Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while two tankers carrying Saudi crude rev

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Two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude reversed course in the Red Sea after receiving threats from Yemen's Houthis, who control parts of the coastline and announced a naval blockade targeting Saudi oil shipments. The Houthis stated they would attack vessels loading or discharging such cargo.

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Tankers with Saudi crude turn back as Houthis open new front in US-Iran war This comes as the militant group announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia on Jul 20 - The Iran-backed Houthis control northern and western Yemen, including the coast at the mouth of the Red Sea.

PHOTO: REUTERS [DUBAI] Two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea on Tuesday (Jul 21) after threats from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, as a widening Middle East conflict disrupted shipping through two of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

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The Houthi announcement already appeared to be having an impact. Two tankers which had just loaded Saudi crude bound for China and India at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu made U-turns on Tuesday, heading towards the Suez Canal rather than out through the Bab el-Mandeb into the Indian Ocean.

“The developments represent the first confirmed changes to commercial tanker routing following the (Houthi) embargo and are likely to increase disruption to Saudi crude exports and regional shipping patterns,” British maritime risk management group Vanguard said on Tuesday.

With the war shutting the Strait of Hormuz leading out of the Gulf, the Red Sea has served as the main alternate route out for millions of barrels of Saudi oil per day, diverted by pipeline through Yanbu. Oil prices gained more than 2 per cent on Tuesday, with Brent crude hovering above US$91 a barrel and US petrol back over US$4 a gallon.

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Iran launched renewed attacks on Tuesday across the Gulf, where recent strikes on desalination facilities have raised concerns about shortages in desert countries that depend almost entirely on removing salt from seawater for potable supplies. Kuwait said it was responding to a drone and missile attack on Tuesday.

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Just four commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Monday, mostly using the northern shipping lane near Iran’s coast, down from seven the previous day, Kpler data showed. Throughout the war, Saudi Arabia partially escaped the shipping disruption by piping oil to Yanbu on the Red Sea instead.

But a full closure of that alternative route by the Houthis could reduce global oil supply as it would leave most Saudi oil exports trapped. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Teheran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire in efforts to salvage the interim ceasefire agreement signed in June, which replaced an earlier April ceasefire.

In a sign that diplomacy remains alive, Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited mediator Pakistan and asked Islamabad to continue its efforts. REUTERS Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter.

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Iran-backed Houthis threaten Red Sea blockade against Saudi Arabia The war in Iran could soon expand to the Red Sea after Iranian-supported Houthi forces announced that they would block shipping from Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally. The Houthis, a political-religious faction in Yemen, announced the blockade July 20.

The group controls a narrow waterway known as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. It’s connected to the southern part of the Red Sea and has been used as an alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and natural gas.

The Iran war has limited ship travel through the strait. Closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could trigger a fresh surge in crude prices, disrupt fuel supplies and add strain on the global economy, Reuters reported. Here's the critical shipping route Can't see our graphics?

Click here to reload the page. Iran had been pressing the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the United States continued to attack Iranian power infrastructure, a move that would put two of the world's most vital energy arteries at risk, according to Reuters.

A full closure of Bab el-Mandeb could reduce global oil supply by 7% because it would leave most Saudi oil exports unable to leave the region, adding to the 10% cut in oil flows from the war in the Gulf. Ship traffic slows in Bab el-Mandeb Strait The United States and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17.

That included 60 days for negotiations on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and on Iranian nuclear and missile systems. The ceasefire ended July 8 when President Donald Trump said it was over after fighting renewed. Iran has retained control of the Strait of Hormuz despite repeated U.

S. strikes. Chokepoints in the world's global oil supply Because of the massive amounts of petroleum, other liquids and liquified natural gas that flow through them, chokepoints – narrow passages along popular international maritime routes – are vital to the world's energy trade and security.

The simultaneous disruption of several transportation routes, including energy, shipping and air cargo, is expected to increase global inflation and put key world economies at risk of stagflation. That's on top of existing political and tariff disputes, according to Oilprice.

com. The Houthis said the blockade against Saudi Arabia was in retaliation for what they called the country’s long-running blockade or “siege” of Yemen’s airports and ports. The latest incident came July 13, when Yemeni government forces attacked Sanaa airport in Yemen to prevent an Iranian aircraft carrying a delegation of Houthis from landing.

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Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas. Their deaths are the latest in a conflict that has claimed American lives across the Middle East since March. Trump has said the U.S. military campaign has left Iran "very badly damaged" with "very little left" militarily.

Contributing: Fernando Cervantes Jr.