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2026伊朗-海湾危机追踪
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diplomacyApr 14, 2026

Greg Smith: What investors should watch next

Summary

That resilience is now being tested following the announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes. The move comes after the breakdown of diplomatic talks with Iran and it remains unclear whether this represents a sustained escalation or a negotiating tactic. Energy prices remain volatile, with Brent and US light crude oil both trading at around US$100 per barrel – reinforcing the potential for this to evolve into a broader, energy-driven macroeconomic shock. However, it is worth keeping this move in perspective. While prices have risen quickly (from around US$65-US$70 just prior to the war), they remain below the peaks seen during previous major energy shocks. Brent crude, for example, is still trading below levels reached at the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Arab Spring and the pre-Global Financial Crisis highs – suggesting that while risks have risen, markets are not yet pricing in a worst-case scenario. There are also echoes of last year’s trade tensions. Markets were repeatedly rattled by escalating rhetoric, tariff threats and firm ultimatums, only for conditions to stabilise as negotiations resumed and partial agreements were reached. “Taco” (“Trump Always Chickens Out”) appears to be back, with this pattern of escalation followed by de-escalation helping to underpin the resilience seen across global markets. Whether a similar dynamic plays out this time remains uncertain. The stakes appear higher, with direct implications for global energy supply, rather than just trade flows. While it is possible that the current situation follows a familiar path of brinkmanship and eventual resolution, it is equally plausible that outcomes are more prolonged or disruptive. This distinction is important. Unlike demand-driven inflation, where rising prices reflect strong economic growth, energy shocks are supply-driven. They act as a tax on both consumers and businesses – lifting costs, squeezing margins and reducing discretionary spending power. Historically, such shocks have often slowed economic growth while simultaneously pushing inflation higher – a challenging combination for policymakers and investors alike. Central banks, many (but not all) of which had been edging closer to rate cuts as inflation pressures eased, may now find themselves in a more difficult position. A sustained rise in energy prices is problematic, particularly if inflation expectations begin to move higher again. For markets that have been pricing in a relatively smooth path to lower interest rates (particularly in the US), this introduces a new layer of uncertainty. In New Zealand, this dynamic could create further pressure for households already dealing with rising petrol costs. ANZ this week called for as many as three interest rate hikes over the remainder of the year – a headline-grabbing shift, but one that was in line with current market pricing. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has previously indicated it would look through the initial impact of oil-driven inflation, but remains acutely aware of the risk of second-round effects, where higher costs become embedded more widely across the economy. For households and businesses already facing cost pressures, there will be hope that such an outcome can be avoided. Closer to home, New Zealand equities have also participated in the recent rebound, with the market remaining within around 5% of its record highs. However, the underlying economic picture is more mixed. While Kiwi manufacturing activity remains in expansion, recent data point to a clear weakening in consumer and business confidence, alongside softer activity indicators more broadly. Rising fuel costs are beginning to weigh on households and businesses alike, with spending increasingly focused on essentials. The services sector is showing particular signs of strain and employment indicators remain soft, reinforcing the idea that economic momentum may be more fragile than the headline data currently imply. For investors, this creates a more nuanced environment. On the one hand, markets have demonstrated a remarkable ability to absorb shocks and recover quickly. On the other, the risks are becoming more complex and increasingly interconnected. Geopolitical developments are now feeding directly into inflation, interest rate expectations and economic growth – all at once. This is very different from the environment that supported global markets through much of the past year, where disinflation and resilient growth provided a relatively stable backdrop. It also highlights an important point: markets are forward-looking, but they are not always perfectly calibrated. Periods of strong performance can sometimes mask underlying vulnerabilities, particularly when sentiment improves faster than fundamentals. None of this necessarily signals an imminent downturn. Markets can remain resilient for longer than expected and geopolitical events can de-escalate as quickly as they emerge. However, the balance of risks appears to be shifting and uncertainty remains elevated. For long-term investors, this reinforces the importance of maintaining a disciplined and diversified approach. Attempting to react to short-term geopolitical developments is notoriously difficult, particularly when markets can move sharply in both directions in a short space of time. At the same time, periods like this can create opportunities. Volatility often leads to greater dispersion in returns between sectors, regions and individual companies – and that is typically where a more active approach can add value. Rather than simply following the market, active investors can adjust positioning, reduce exposure to areas facing rising risks and selectively add to companies that have been indiscriminately sold, despite strong underlying fundamentals. By contrast, passive strategies, by design, continue to track the market, regardless of changing conditions. While this has worked well in broad, rising markets, it offers less flexibility in environments where risks are evolving and market leadership is shifting. However, it is equally important to acknowledge what cannot be known. The path of the current conflict remains highly uncertain and how – or when – it is ultimately resolved is far from clear. Markets may continue to react sharply to new developments and sentiment can shift quickly. The key is not to be driven by headlines, but to remain focused on underlying fundamentals and long-term objectives, while recognising that uncertainty is likely to remain a defining feature of the current environment. As the current backdrop shows, markets can be both resilient and vulnerable at the same time. Understanding that balance – and having the flexibility to respond as conditions evolve – will be critical in the months ahead. Generate is a New Zealand-owned KiwiSaver and Managed Fund provider managing over $8 billion on behalf of more than 180,000 New Zealanders. This article is intended for general information only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author. All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. To see Generate’s Financial Advice Provider Disclosure Statement or Product Disclosure Statement, go to www.generatewealth.co.nz/advertising-disclosures/. The issuer is Generate Investment Management Limited.

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  • Greg SmithBy Greg Smith

    That resilience is now being tested following the announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes. The move comes after the breakdown of diplomatic talks with Iran and it remains unclear whether this represents a sustained

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CHICAGO (AP) — Diesel hit a new record price in the U.S. on Friday, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever as the 6-month-long war with Iran continues to disrupt the world’s flow of fuel. Because diesel is used for many freight and delivery networks, higher diesel prices mean higher transportation costs for a long list of everyday goods.

More expensive fuel is increasing bills for businesses across sectors — some of which have already passed off costs to consumers in the form of added fees on online orders and packages in the mail. And shoppers may see more and more sticker shock trickle into store shelves.

One of the most immediate strains falls in the grocery aisle, particularly with produce, meat and other perishable foods that need to be hauled in and restocked frequently — or even harvested using diesel-powered farm equipment. It can take time for all of those costs to trickle down.

Still, experts warn that price hikes could mount the longer diesel remains expensive. A range of other products are also transported by diesel trucks, trains and boats, including clothing, cosmetics, furniture and more. The price for regular gasoline has also been going up, although not as fast as the price of diesel.

The average price was $4.15 a gallon, compared with $3.20 at this time last year, according to AAA. What’s driving the latest jump for diesel Before the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran in late February, the national average for a gallon of diesel was about $3.

76 in the U.S., per AAA. Prices quickly climbed as the cost of crude oil — the main ingredient in diesel, as well as gasoline — soared amid supply chain disruptions and production cuts across the Middle East, notably with most tanker traffic bottlenecked in the key Strait of Hormuz.

Despite prices cooling some during hopes for peace earlier in the summer, oil has now renewed its climb as fighting once more escalates between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude, the international standard, was trading at more than $95 a barrel Friday, up from roughly $70 before the war.

Prices at the pump always follow closely behind. The last time U.S. businesses and drivers saw sky-high fuel prices was in June 2022, when diesel reached as high as nearly $5.82 a gallon on average, months after the Ukraine war began and world leaders imposed sanctions against Russia, a leading oil producer.

When adjusted for inflation, however, prices have been higher in the past. Ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, for example, diesel peaked at about $4.74 a gallon — equivalent to $7.20 in 2026, according to the government’s latest data. And 2022’s record of nearly $5.

82 would be about $6.56 this year when accounting for inflation. That doesn’t take the pain away from today’s steep prices, which are already bringing ripple effects for the economy and wider costs of living. Drivers are feeling the pain each time they fill up gasoline, too.

The average $4.15 for a gallon of regular unleaded is up from $2.98 before the Iran war, although still well below the 2022 peak of nearly $5.02 a gallon nationwide. Diesel has been more expensive than gasoline for decades, and its price has risen at a faster pace during recent energy crises.

Some reasons include more limited supply, less flexibility in demand, and diesel’s position in global commerce overall. Individual households may find ways to drive less when gas prices are high, for example, but there’s fewer immediate substitutes for networks that rely on diesel to help produce and haul goods worldwide.

All eyes on food Diesel is integral to every part of the food supply chain. It powers farm equipment and fishing boats as well as the trains, cargo ships and trucks that get food to grocery stores. Fuel accounts for roughly 15% to 30% of the total cost of food, according to the Independent Grocers Alliance, a grouping of 7,500 global supermarkets.

Because of this, higher diesel costs often result in more expensive food, although it can take a while for energy shocks to wind their way through the supply chain. Items that need to stay refrigerated while they’re transported are often the first to see prices rise, according to David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University.

In July, for example, overall U.S. grocery prices were up 2.7% compared to last July, but seafood prices were up 7% and fresh fruit prices were up 4.9%. Ortega cautioned that there can be other factors at play when food prices go up or down.

Lettuce also faced higher transportation costs in July, but a drop in demand due to the cyclospora outbreak caused prices to fall. Still, consumers could feel more of a squeeze the longer diesel prices remain high. “Early on, much of the cost increase gets absorbed along the supply chain through existing freight contracts and retailer margins,” Ortega said.

“But as contracts reprice and fuel surcharges take hold, more of that cost makes its way to the grocery store.” More fuel shocks Back in April, e-commerce giant Amazon rolled out a temporary 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge on some third-party sellers.

And United Parcel Service, FedEx and the United States Postal Service also moved to add fees on some of the packages they ship earlier in the war, citing rising operational costs for fuel overall. Ajesh Kapoor, CEO and founder of trucking technology company SemiCab, said trucking and transportations can adapt to rising diesel prices — but at some point there is a limit.

“Diesel price has a very, very direct impact on everything that moves on pretty much any mode,” Kapoor said. The ramifications extend beyond the movement of consumer goods. Some public transit buses and trains also run on diesel — and diesel generators are often used for backup or emergency power, if not central electricity sources in some remote parts of the world.

Experts warn that the consequences could continue to deepen — particularly in countries in Africa and Asia, which rely more heavily on imports from the Middle East and have already been hit the hardest by energy shocks over the course of the war.

Neil Atkinson, energy analyst and senior fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics, said refined oil products like diesel are becoming more expensive as supplies get stretched. “This is gradually becoming a major crisis because A) the prices themselves are very high — but the physical stocks of these products are dwindling,” he said in a weekly briefing with maritime data firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence, pointing to the strain on the global refining system.

“This cannot go on forever.” ___ Associated Press writers Dee-Ann Durbin in Detroit and Mae Anderson in New York contributed to this report.

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The United States and Israel have reportedly engaged in a regional conflict with Iran for nearly six months, during which Strait of Hormuz oil transit has remained significantly below prewar levels of 20 million barrels per day, despite U.S. officials claiming Navy escort operations.

Although the Strait typically facilitates over 20% of global energy trade, analysts suggest that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may continue to restrict normal transit even if diplomatic agreements are reached. Current tensions have escalated following the expiration of a reported 60-day ceasefire, prompting the U.

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